About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved higher again and hurt export ideas again. They ere Iranian drones that were given to Moscow and they hit many civilian targets. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 646 and 794 December. Support is at 833, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 873, 906, and 946 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 930 and 872 December. Support is at 929, 922, and 896 December, with resistance at 960, 985, and 997 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 939, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1024 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. The weekly charts show that futures have broken through some big support areas. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1652 and 1632 November. Support is at 1636, 1622, and 1604 November and resistance is at 1672, 1688, and 1692 November

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.59 10.43 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.24 10.80 0.00
Brokens 9.65 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on ideas of weak demand. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 675, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 689, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower yesterday and Soybean Oil Was a little higher. The rally comes as the US is now more than half done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great. The US will still harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1339 and 1326 November. Support is at 1364, 1349, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1383, 1410, and 14314 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00, 389.00 and 375.00 December. Support is at 392.00, 388.00, and 381.00 December, and resistance is at 410.00 419.00, and 423.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7040, 7070, and 7160 December. Support is at 6710, 6500, and 6450 December, with resistance at 7110, 7210, and 7260 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday as futures prices recovered from very oversold levels. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Export data has been strong this month from the private sources and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Production was also higher and ending stocks were up more than 10% to 2.315 million tons. Canola was higher yesterday as the Canadian Dollar moved lower and the US Dollar moved higher. The Canola harvest is active and starting to wind down in some areas. Some of the early week rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 850.00, 841.00, and 828.00 November, with resistance at 874.00, 877.00, and 891.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4200 and 4500 January. Support is at 38280, 3820, and 3630 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4280 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry conditions today. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
270 Dec
245 Dec
200 Dec
260 Nov

November
270 Dec
245 Dec
200 Dec
260 Nov

December
220 Dec
220 Dec
200 Dec
240 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 863.10 0.80 Nov. 2022 dn 8.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 885.50 30.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
Basis: Vancouver 910.50 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 937.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 942.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 952.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 957.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 967.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 940.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 945.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 955.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 840.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 750.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4050.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 254.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.718)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 155,380 lots, or 9.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,885 5,952 5,854 5,859 5,843 5,879 36 36,807 12,793
Jan-23 5,804 5,829 5,741 5,745 5,771 5,778 7 104,937 126,280
Mar-23 5,702 5,748 5,680 5,685 5,692 5,706 14 11,748 34,064
May-23 5,708 5,744 5,670 5,672 5,692 5,699 7 1,612 4,115
Jul-23 5,710 5,715 5,651 5,657 5,665 5,690 25 195 565
Sep-23 5,638 5,744 5,614 5,628 5,613 5,664 51 81 84
Corn
Turnover: 357,738 lots, or 10.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,825 2,838 2,817 2,827 2,821 2,826 5 59,023 79,941
Jan-23 2,855 2,864 2,843 2,853 2,848 2,852 4 215,614 656,061
Mar-23 2,876 2,891 2,869 2,879 2,869 2,879 10 43,847 320,729
May-23 2,915 2,927 2,907 2,918 2,912 2,916 4 13,608 114,300
Jul-23 2,929 2,937 2,918 2,929 2,920 2,927 7 24,431 135,686
Sep-23 2,930 2,940 2,922 2,932 2,925 2,930 5 1,215 4,579
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,472,090 lots, or 58.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,833 4,836 4,701 4,780 4,870 4,773 -97 64,307 49,547
Dec-22 4,384 4,428 4,287 4,380 4,460 4,364 -96 116,591 197,245
Jan-23 4,003 4,018 3,961 3,988 4,032 3,992 -40 1,041,935 1,627,529
Mar-23 3,813 3,857 3,813 3,832 3,861 3,835 -26 16,304 105,488
May-23 3,607 3,637 3,580 3,588 3,616 3,602 -14 204,405 349,672
Jul-23 3,578 3,601 3,548 3,554 3,583 3,565 -18 15,450 63,220
Aug-23 3,612 3,648 3,600 3,607 3,635 3,618 -17 4,932 25,600
Sep-23 3,595 3,615 3,566 3,573 3,600 3,584 -16 8,166 13,100
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,025,674 lots, or 82.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 – – – 8,100 8,100 8,100 0 0 516
Nov-22 8,188 8,378 8,156 8,342 8,016 8,254 238 10,215 12,141
Dec-22 8,064 8,270 8,038 8,230 7,934 8,172 238 11,849 66,132
Jan-23 7,982 8,174 7,938 8,140 7,836 8,068 232 899,113 461,221
Feb-23 7,976 8,164 7,926 8,144 7,836 8,060 224 4,860 48,092
Mar-23 7,976 8,158 7,942 8,144 7,820 8,068 248 7,263 29,953
Apr-23 7,954 8,142 7,918 8,142 7,840 8,036 196 3,715 26,540
May-23 7,984 8,104 7,894 8,092 7,830 8,014 184 86,562 93,719
Jun-23 7,880 8,054 7,852 8,042 7,782 7,982 200 1,652 7,666
Jul-23 7,808 7,940 7,796 7,940 7,676 7,840 164 31 145
Aug-23 7,762 7,898 7,714 7,896 7,654 7,826 172 99 264
Sep-23 7,686 7,866 7,686 7,856 7,616 7,788 172 315 397
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 838,073 lots, or 79.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,524 10,556 10,370 10,472 10,414 10,476 62 9,634 12,956
Dec-22 10,036 10,174 9,958 10,018 9,960 10,060 100 10,983 75,597
Jan-23 9,500 9,618 9,424 9,540 9,448 9,524 76 744,257 478,733
Mar-23 9,010 9,050 8,908 9,016 8,956 8,980 24 4,957 52,908
May-23 8,776 8,816 8,680 8,790 8,772 8,750 -22 62,325 70,599
Jul-23 8,676 8,688 8,562 8,664 8,640 8,628 -12 2,864 18,518
Aug-23 8,622 8,640 8,512 8,626 8,588 8,584 -4 2,208 20,135
Sep-23 8,544 8,588 8,450 8,576 8,532 8,520 -12 845 1,022
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322