About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 13
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended Oct. 9, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3056.4 886.2 308.6 410.0 47.0 1431.8 390.8 117.2 7328.4
Week Ago 3300.7 759.8 311.9 480.9 46.2 1238.2 437.9 130.2 7182.6
Year Ago 2685.2 703.1 302.2 618.2 41.8 1489.8 388.9 30.2 7152.6
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 477.7 149.6 56.6 105.0 2.8 612.8 28.9 0.1 1568.2
Week Ago 459.8 134.5 63.1 99.0 1.9 687.9 26.4 3.1 1548.5
To Date 4878.3 959.7 562.3 1024.8 19.2 3401.5 964.3 65.4 12681.8
Year Ago 3271.1 743.6 488.1 1477.9 44.6 3792.6 928.8 63.6 11684.7
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 334.3 125.5 10.1 137.7 – 308.4 44.5 0.2 1271.9
Week Ago 580.1 116.4 19.1 126.7 0.5 298.5 47.3 0.3 1316.7
To Date 4334.9 796.6 32.1 559.3 0.5 960.8 650.3 128.7 8275.7
Year Ago 3749.9 629.1 88.8 736.1 2.5 1331.4 634.4 31.0 8098.3
EXPORTS
This Week 593.9 48.6 41.8 187.7 0.8 208.6 75.0 – 1227.1
Week Ago 380.4 75.9 41.3 137.6 0.5 300.5 68.3 – 1032.6
To Date 3336.8 429.3 243.3 567.0 7.3 729.6 597.5 134.7 6484.2
Year Ago 2677.5 671.1 332.0 539.7 10.6 983.7 567.0 35.4 6256.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 63.3 3.4 18.9 27.0 1.2 149.7 5.4 15.1 353.6
Week Ago 73.3 3.2 17.0 22.2 0.9 190.1 4.3 12.9 357.5
To Date 828.3 98.3 166.8 307.2 11.8 1670.3 47.5 303.2 3730.3
Year Ago 1003.5 47.2 152.4 320.5 10.1 1749.0 59.3 180.2 3758.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 14
For the week ended Oct 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2022-2023 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2021-22.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 211.8 0.0 11127.0 11975.5 2809.4 2.0
hrw 74.4 0.0 3141.9 4601.7 724.7 1.7
srw 28.4 0.0 2068.0 1795.8 519.6 0.0
hrs 32.2 0.0 3221.1 3275.5 864.1 0.0
white 76.9 0.0 2528.2 2180.7 610.7 0.3
durum 0.0 0.0 167.8 121.9 90.3 0.0
corn 200.2 60.5 13422.9 27621.1 10753.5 311.0
soybeans 724.4 0.0 28232.0 26319.0 25512.2 0.0
soymeal 772.2-a 0.0 3088.4 4054.4 2977.5 1.4
soyoil 13.5-b 0.0 20.0 105.0 19.8 0.1
upland cotton 144.8 34.8 8285.4 7617.2 6081.8 1078.5
pima cotton -2.0 0.0 103.4 235.2 85.2 0.9
sorghum 5.9 0.0 298.9 2356.3 271.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 30.2 11.6 0.0
rice 12.8 0.0 512.0 971.3 225.1 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-6, which resulted
in a net increase of 491.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
280.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
21-22.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-6, which resulted
in a net increase of 3.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
10.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2021-22.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 17, 2022 55 Sep 27, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday on news that Russia has sent a letter to the UN demanding changes in the export agreement in the Black Sea with Ukraine. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. USDA cut demand more than the trade had expected and left endng stocks below last month but higher than trade expectations. Ukraine apparently bombed a bridge connecting Russia and Crimea over the weekend and Russia retaliated on Monday by bombing cities in Ukraine including Kiev. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected. Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 873, 863, and 854 December, with resistance at 906, 946, and 950 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 964, 960, and 943 December, with resistance at 997, 1010, and 1033 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 956, 929, and 9207 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1024 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading and as the harvest pressure continued. The weekly charts show that futures are trying to break through some big support areas. USDA left its production estimates unchanged in its reports yesterday and cut export demand by 2.0 million cwt for an increase in ending stocks levels. The data did not show any major changes so futures were able to hold and close on a firm note. Harvest progress is now rapid in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1668, 1666, and 1658 November and resistance is at 1688, 1692, and 1704 November

CORN AND OATS68
General Comments: Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports that showed ending stocks above trade expectations but less than a month ago. Corn also foiund support from the Ukraine-Russia news as Russia is now asking for major changes in the deal to permit esports from Black Sea ports US production was cut in line with trade expectations but demand was cut more and ending stocks were higher than trade expectations, although below last month. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said barges may use the river again now. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 684, 680, and 672 December, and resistance is at 706, 708, and 716 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 395, 392, and 377 December, and resistance is at 411, 420, and 421 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday but Soybean Meal was lower. The market was not strong considering that there have been export sales of 1.0 million tons of Soybeans in the last two days. USDA reduced production and demand and ending stocks were left unchanged. The trade had expected increased ending stocks due to much less demand. The US will still harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start kept the rally in check and futures closed with only moderate gains after a sharp rally above 1400 when the report was released. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said yesterday that barge traffic is permitted in the river. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News: China bought 392,000 tons of US Soiybeans and unknown destinations bought198,000 tons of US Soybeans. Philippines bought 230,000 tons of Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1434, 1483, and 1527 November. Support is at 1385, 1377, and 1365 November, and resistance is at 1414, 1427, and 1437 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 421.00 December. Support is at 409.00, 404.00, and 400.00 December, and resistance is at 419.00 423.00, and 430.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6330, and 6130 December, with resistance at 6760, 6800, and 7120 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on ideas of oversold market conditions and despite bearish stocks dat from MPOB. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market Export data has been strong this month and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Canola was higher yesterday on a stronger Canadian Dollar and in reaction to the USDA reports. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 852.00, 841.00, and 828.00 November, with resistance at 877.00, 891.00, and 894.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3560, 3400, and 3330 December, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3960 December.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.42M Tons; Up 9.2%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 9.2% on month at 1.42 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,770,441 1,725,781 Up 2.59%
Palm Oil Exports 1,420,235 1,299,930 Up 9.25%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 97,002 101,363 Dn 4.3%
Palm Oil Imports 132,303 172,151 Dn 23.15%
Closing Stocks 2,315,464 2,094,667 Up 10.54%
Crude Palm Oil 1,280,014 1,025,961 Up 24.76%
Processed Palm Oil 1,035,450 1,068,706 Dn 3.11%

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Scattered showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
270 Dec
245 Dec
200 Dec
260 Nov

November
270 Dec
245 Dec
200 Dec
260 Nov

December
220 Dec
220 Dec
200 Dec
240 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 866.10 1.30 Nov 2022 up 6.90
Track Thunder Bay 900.40 30.00 Nov 2022 up 5.60
Track Vancouver 925.40 55.00 Nov 2022 up 5.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 892.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 897.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 907.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 915.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 927.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 895.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 900.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 910.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 917.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 930.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 795.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 710.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3750.00 +130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 257.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6995)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 145,023 lots, or .84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,854 5,877 5,813 5,839 5,846 5,851 5 77,782 30,525
Jan-23 5,760 5,795 5,741 5,769 5,779 5,767 -12 56,705 105,979
Mar-23 5,675 5,711 5,673 5,692 5,703 5,692 -11 10,154 30,361
May-23 5,684 5,703 5,670 5,699 5,695 5,692 -3 365 2,857
Jul-23 5,667 5,667 5,658 5,658 5,649 5,662 13 2 335
Sep-23 5,600 5,616 5,589 5,616 5,614 5,608 -6 15 37
Corn
Turnover: 544,037 lots, or 15.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,803 2,839 2,798 2,837 2,808 2,821 13 89,131 112,999
Jan-23 2,838 2,871 2,826 2,870 2,839 2,852 13 349,146 682,142
Mar-23 2,858 2,892 2,847 2,889 2,860 2,872 12 49,053 292,117
May-23 2,893 2,929 2,883 2,928 2,895 2,905 10 30,050 110,243
Jul-23 2,901 2,939 2,895 2,938 2,905 2,921 16 24,967 114,113
Sep-23 2,916 2,944 2,902 2,944 2,914 2,927 13 1,690 3,917
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,560,246 lots, or 64.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,016 5,078 5,006 5,040 5,054 5,045 -9 106,610 82,304
Dec-22 4,591 4,694 4,591 4,655 4,653 4,657 4 87,493 204,105
Jan-23 4,073 4,172 4,063 4,163 4,088 4,123 35 1,101,374 1,771,110
Mar-23 3,906 3,985 3,867 3,971 3,899 3,926 27 19,348 94,049
May-23 3,598 3,702 3,590 3,686 3,605 3,649 44 204,712 334,956
Jul-23 3,578 3,631 3,561 3,628 3,576 3,603 27 28,987 53,808
Aug-23 3,619 3,683 3,616 3,674 3,622 3,653 31 6,833 22,029
Sep-23 3,585 3,652 3,584 3,643 3,599 3,623 24 4,889 9,899
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,196,742 lots, or 9.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 7,902 7,902 7,902 7,902 8,168 7,902 -266 1 516
Nov-22 7,768 8,032 7,690 8,018 7,956 7,864 -92 26,494 25,633
Dec-22 7,684 7,920 7,550 7,900 7,852 7,750 -102 13,445 66,257
Jan-23 7,500 7,830 7,424 7,816 7,676 7,622 -54 1,076,036 423,676
Feb-23 7,500 7,814 7,418 7,808 7,658 7,624 -34 5,844 44,952
Mar-23 7,496 7,826 7,404 7,810 7,638 7,626 -12 5,002 27,588
Apr-23 7,480 7,800 7,388 7,788 7,610 7,602 -8 7,348 25,052
May-23 7,484 7,776 7,362 7,762 7,574 7,566 -8 60,613 86,201
Jun-23 7,388 7,726 7,326 7,712 7,546 7,606 60 1,567 4,717
Jul-23 7,338 7,660 7,306 7,660 7,460 7,390 -70 6 142
Aug-23 7,328 7,594 7,256 7,594 7,406 7,392 -14 92 161
Sep-23 7,324 7,562 7,206 7,548 7,394 7,382 -12 294 394
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 908,260 lots, or 85.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,500 10,710 10,374 10,598 10,708 10,578 -130 26,798 25,121
Dec-22 10,152 10,438 10,090 10,298 10,326 10,280 -46 19,232 78,407
Jan-23 9,360 9,596 9,338 9,566 9,464 9,488 24 772,349 494,333
Mar-23 8,796 9,016 8,758 9,006 8,822 8,930 108 7,007 48,865
May-23 8,482 9,174 8,448 8,802 8,496 8,658 162 73,624 68,266
Jul-23 8,372 8,648 8,348 8,648 8,408 8,540 132 3,414 16,263
Aug-23 8,304 8,582 8,298 8,576 8,350 8,484 134 5,016 19,970
Sep-23 8,234 8,526 8,234 8,522 8,288 8,414 126 820 666
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322