Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week despite some strength in the US Dollar and trends remain down on the charts. Demand remains a question mark at this time even with the reduced harvest. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will get some heavy rains from the hurricane on Friday and Saturday. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 2,109 bales, from 2,109 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 12 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8190 and 7700 December. Support is at 82.60, 81.40, and 80.20 December, with resistance of 86.20, 88.90 and 90.`0 December.
Date 2-Oct 25-Sep 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 77 67 69 73
Cotton Harvested 22 15 13 17
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 31 23 27 4
Cotton Last Week 15 27 27 27 4
Cotton Last Year 1 5 32 53 9
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday as the major hurricane that moved onshore Florida last week left extensive damage. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are now poor as the storm caused some major damage to trees and fruit. It will take another day or two to fully understand the damage the storm caused but damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 204.00 November. Support is at 195.00, 190.00, and 185.00 November, with resistance at 201.00, 204.00, and 207.00 November.
General Comments: New York closed sharply lower, but London closed higher in consolidation trading. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. Some beneficial precipitation was reported in Brazil over the weekend. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for the coming week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Some big rains were seen in Vietnam late last week. The cash market remains strong for Arabica.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.417 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 190.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 206.00, 205.00, and 191.00 December. Support is at 211.00, 210.00, and 205.00 December, and resistance is at 224.00, 230.00 and 232.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 November. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2050 November, and resistance is at 2220, 2260, and 2300 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday, with New York selling off on ideas that the Brazil production is coming to the market and despite rallies in Crude Oil. Crude Oil was higher on news reports that OPEC was considering a production cut to keep prices elevated. The New York market is worried that reduced ethanol demand due to taxing policies in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil, and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 14,652 delivery notices were posted against October contracts. All of the Sugar came from Brazil.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1690 March and resistance is at 1790, 1800, and 1830 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 533.00, 541.00, and 543.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower yesterday. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop but the buy side of the market might be waiting too long to extend coverage. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.663 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2240, and 2190 December, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2430 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1870 December, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 December.
DJ Ivory Coast Raises Cocoa Prices
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
The price of cocoa beans in Ivory Coast has been increased by the government-run Coffee Cocoa council.
A kilogram of the beans will now sell for 900 CFA francs ($1.34), up from XAF825 in the previous season, the council’s director general Yves Brahima Kone said.
The price increase comes amid pressure from farmers to raise prices.