Softs Report 10/03/2022

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher last week after making a test of recent lows. The lows held and a more stable market is anticipated. The recent strength in the US Dollar has hurt just about all commodities prices lately. Price trends remain down on the daily charts. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will get some heavy rains from the hurricane on Friday and Saturday. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 2,109 bales, from 2,109 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 12 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8190 and 7700 December. Support is at 83.60, 82.60, and 81.40 December, with resistance of 88.90, 90.10 and 92.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 313,824
: Positions :
: 37,036 27,303 89,046 94,106 171,837 80,265 14,344 300,453 302,530: 13,372 11,294
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: 11,185) :
: -184 1,006 5,393 9,984 3,182 -676 1,341 14,518 10,922: -3,333 262
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 8.7 28.4 30.0 54.8 25.6 4.6 95.7 96.4: 4.3 3.6
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 69 101 56 65 49 20 239 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher Friday and last week as a major hurricane moved onshore Florida. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that are expected to have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are now poor as the storm caused some major damage to trees and fruit. It will take another day or two to fully understand the damage the storm caused but damage is expected to be very big. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 204.00 November. Support is at 190.00, 184.00, and 179.00 November, with resistance at 195.00, 198.00, and 201.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,851 :
: Positions :
: 1,128 8,769 2,686 0 0 3,627 375 292 920 474 1,234 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: -11 294 -39 0 0 262 -185 210 40 47 119 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 74.0 22.7 0.0 0.0 30.6 3.2 2.5 7.8 4.0 10.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 65 :
: 13 11 6 0 0 23 . 6 8 8 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher for the week and London closed lower and made new lows for the move. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for the coming week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. A typhoon is coming to Vietnam but ideas are that damage to Coffee and trees will be minimal and confined to minor production areas in the north of the country. The cash market remains strong for Arabica.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.426 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 193.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 221.00, 217.00, and 216.00 December, and resistance is at 224.00, 230.00 and 232.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 November. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2050 November, and resistance is at 2220, 2260, and 2300 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 234,884
: Positions :
: 35,515 8,769 68,093 65,725 138,070 55,891 12,173 225,225 227,106: 9,659 7,778
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -5,901) :
: 2,667 -53 -742 -5,847 -3,267 -1,958 -1,808 -5,881 -5,870: -20 -31
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 3.7 29.0 28.0 58.8 23.8 5.2 95.9 96.7: 4.1 3.3
: Total Traders: 380 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 57 119 103 111 50 25 337 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/27/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
125,890 59,304 79,477 2,069 9,203 3,508
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 47.1% 63.1% 1.6% 7.3% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 36 40 9 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,775 5,785 5,840 5,706 2,033 16,141
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 1.6% 12.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 15 16 13 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,547 3,903
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower on Friday but New York was a little higher for the week while London closed a little lower. Futures held together as the supply available to the market remains short. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil, and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand. UNICA said that the Brazil Sugar Cane crush was 39.5 million tons, up 2.5% from the previous two week period. The mills produce 2.9 million tons of Sugar and 2.1 billion liters of Ethanol. Sugar production was 44.9% of the mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1690 March and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 541.00, 543.00, and 548.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 837,868
: Positions :
: 82,427 110,950 149,300 290,178 458,881 243,410 53,746 765,315 772,876: 72,553 64,991
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -29,765) :
: 6,901 -4,091 -7,623 -29,009 -15,158 -5,037 980 -34,768 -25,892: 5,003 -3,873
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 13.2 17.8 34.6 54.8 29.1 6.4 91.3 92.2: 8.7 7.8
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 57 71 70 70 37 18 198 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/27/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,983 27,021 63,687 6,463 4,863 1,812
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.4% 78.6% 8.0% 6.0% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
111 34 34 6 6 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,561 1,262 4,275 1,869 651 1,539
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
37.7% 1.6% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 3 14 9 2 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,443 2,894
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 3.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was higher Friday and for the week. The price action last week implied that higher prices are coming to both markets in the coming days. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop but the buy side of the market might be waiting too long to extend coverage. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.663 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2240, and 2190 December, with resistance at 2340, 2300, and 2430 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1920, 1900, and 1880 December, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 377,227
: Positions :
: 57,432 86,841 99,070 145,421 138,716 59,595 41,543 361,518 366,171: 15,709 11,057
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: 21,145) :
: 2,291 6,241 11,437 6,927 555 -740 2,627 19,916 20,861: 1,229 284
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 23.0 26.3 38.5 36.8 15.8 11.0 95.8 97.1: 4.2 2.9
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 78 78 53 34 33 24 215 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/27/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
303,704 151,950 196,636 29,131 30,293 16,276
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 50.0% 64.7% 9.6% 10.0% 5.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 48 50 13 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
48,630 12,276 12,154 11,753 3,922 30,463
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 1.3% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 14 23 14 13 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,347 1,684
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322