About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 04, 2022 75 Sep 13, 2022

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2022 (million bushels)
Friday’s Average USDA
Estimate Forecast Range June 2022
Corn 1,377 1,497 1,295-1,575 4,346
Soybeans 274 247 220-275 971
Wheat 1,776 1,795 1,663-1,950 669

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Wheat Production
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
2022 U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Actual Average
USDA Forecast Range USDA August
All Wheat 1,650 1,784 1,750-1,806 1,783
Winter Wheat 1,104 1,192 1,165-1,205 1,198
Hard Red Winter 531 573 555-590 576
Soft Red Winter 337 379 365-390 381
White Winter 236 239 225-250 240
Other Spring 482 517 503-540 512
Durum 64 75 71-76 74

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on Friday as USDA lowered production estimates and also showed much less than expected supplies in the quarterly stocks report. Concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor continued. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry as long as both countries can export. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 952, 970, and 982 December. Support is at 801, 854, and 849 December, with resistance at 946, 954, and 1002 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1049 and 1132 December. Support is at 961, 927, and 896 December, with resistance at 1011, 10154, and 1129 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1005, 1017, and 1078 December. Support is at 960, 929, and 907 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1056, and 1066 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 377,966
: Positions :
: 30,937 72,316 109,828 52,505 119,786 154,742 39,288 348,012 341,218: 29,954 36,748
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -9,854) :
: -4,544 -10,656 -3,644 -52 3,878 452 903 -7,788 -9,520: -2,066 -334
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 19.1 29.1 13.9 31.7 40.9 10.4 92.1 90.3: 7.9 9.7
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 81 109 77 97 48 30 265 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 167,941
: Positions :
: 25,236 20,575 30,082 35,868 88,564 57,462 7,474 148,648 146,694: 19,293 21,247
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -4,315) :
: -1,411 -5,975 926 -327 2,091 -2,603 -1,202 -3,415 -4,160: -900 -155
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 12.3 17.9 21.4 52.7 34.2 4.5 88.5 87.3: 11.5 12.7
: Total Traders: 205 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 47 26 49 59 77 39 15 168 147:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 57,413 :
: Positions :
: 31,352 38,214 1,170 1,069 390 6,931 2,695 1,853 3,317 331 2,489 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: 336 899 -426 769 390 257 -1,610 168 -322 -300 -343 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.6 66.6 2.0 1.9 0.7 12.1 4.7 3.2 5.8 0.6 4.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90 :
: 47 34 4 . . 10 6 5 7 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower Friday and for the week as the harvest pressure continued. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Yield reports are variable to very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1507 November. Support is at 1697, 1685, and 1680 November and resistance is at 1742, 1755, and 1762 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,060 :
: Positions :
: 3,525 6,833 129 0 0 2,342 628 0 785 544 118 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: 146 -566 -2 0 0 -341 0 -1 -271 -28 -129 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.9 75.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 25.9 6.9 0.0 8.7 6.0 1.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 50 :
: 15 15 . 0 0 10 . 0 7 5 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on Friday and slightly higher for the week as USDA showed much less than expected supplies in its quarterly stocks report that was released on Friday. The harvest comes closer in the US and it expected that harvest selling could limit any additional upside moves in the market.. Oats were higher on Friday but a little lower for the week. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 711,716, and 744 December. Support is at 679, 663, and 659 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 383, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 400, 411, and 420 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,787,424
: Positions :
: 238,075 78,519 491,744 448,846 899,789 448,990 87,256 1,627,655 1,557,308: 159,770 230,116
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -30,104) :
: -23,945 -10,173 -3,422 16,056 -11,213 -17,174 -7,561 -28,485 -32,369: -1,618 2,265
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 4.4 27.5 25.1 50.3 25.1 4.9 91.1 87.1: 8.9 12.9
: Total Traders: 819 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 169 107 192 360 414 54 29 671 674:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,963 :
: Positions :
: 876 1,860 216 0 0 0 667 0 593 1 344 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: -21 7 -69 0 0 0 83 0 127 -8 50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.1 46.9 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 15.0 0.0 8.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 7 7 . 0 0 0 4 0 6 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on Friday and for the week after USDA showed larger than expected supplies in the quarterly stocks report. USDA also modified 2021 production estimates and that accounted for much of the increase. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1339, 1326, and 1320 November. Support is at 1356, 1344, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1391, 1407, and 1460 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 402.00 and 375.00 December. Support is at 400.00, 396.00, and 388.00 December, and resistance is at 4317.00 420.00, and 431.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5660 and 5000 December. Support is at 6080, 6o20, and 5810 December, with resistance at 6440, 6680, and 6800 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 830,261
: Positions :
: 92,661 60,774 223,790 290,251 415,629 174,471 44,554 781,174 744,747: 49,087 85,514
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: 21,400) :
: -10,901 -1,086 24,116 13,591 -1,447 -7,342 -4,121 19,464 17,462: 1,936 3,937
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 7.3 27.0 35.0 50.1 21.0 5.4 94.1 89.7: 5.9 10.3
: Total Traders: 596 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 125 169 193 249 54 29 465 497:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 447,185
: Positions :
: 55,526 35,417 113,423 126,868 255,547 121,631 19,605 417,447 423,991: 29,738 23,194
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -7,391) :
: 4,098 5,121 3,363 -9,139 -16,160 -1,716 902 -3,393 -6,774: -3,998 -617
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 7.9 25.4 28.4 57.1 27.2 4.4 93.3 94.8: 6.7 5.2
: Total Traders: 297 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 63 76 87 102 45 21 231 234:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 422,486
: Positions :
: 85,041 14,204 77,066 84,588 293,586 123,643 10,921 370,337 395,778: 52,149 26,709
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 (Change in open interest: -22,937) :
: -7,105 2,248 -1,006 -1,516 -17,871 -8,981 -4,134 -18,608 -20,764: -4,330 -2,173
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.1 3.4 18.2 20.0 69.5 29.3 2.6 87.7 93.7: 12.3 6.3
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 28 63 87 99 44 17 229 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again last week but higher today on ideas of reduced ending stocks for last month. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS and AmSpec have both reported a big increase in demand in its reports released this month. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 838 November. Support is at 816.00, 808.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2730 December. Support is at 3220, 3160, and 3040 December, with resistance at 3640, 377e0, and 3930 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 49,569 :
: Positions :
: 39,250 36,179 3,340 5,233 2,797 0 80 0 3,722 4,820 460 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: 1,340 1,530 1,320 240 -200 0 40 0 -210 640 200 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.2 73.0 6.7 10.6 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 9.7 0.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 7 9 4 . 4 0 . 0 . 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 242,082 :
: Positions :
: 195,259 152,673 617 6,274 2,154 5,796 35,022 19,646 2,908 8,434 14,365 :
: Changes from: September 20, 2022 :
: 5,790 9,583 48 386 -104 969 -2,470 5,747 -222 -395 -1,297 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.7 63.1 0.3 2.6 0.9 2.4 14.5 8.1 1.2 3.5 5.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 333 :
: 48 93 . 7 4 18 51 23 42 112 56 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
148 Dec
225 Dec
185 Dec
195 Nov

October
148 Dec
225 Dec
185 Dec
195 Nov

November
139 Dec
215 Dec
1685 Dec
165 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 829.10 0.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 868.50 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 9.40
Basis: Vancouver 893.50 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 9.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct. 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 817.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 822.50 — Unquoted – –
Dec 827.50 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 842.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 857.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 820.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 825.00 — Unquoted – –
Dec 830.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 845.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 745.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 660.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 280.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.646)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322