Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower. The recent strength in the US Dollar has hurt just about all commodities prices lately and the down move in the Dollar yesterday gave most agricultural markets a reason to rally. Price trends remain down on the daily charts. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will get some heavy rains from the hurricane on Friday and Saturday. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 923 bales, from 923 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 1 notice was posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 3 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8190 and 7700 December. Support is at 85.70, 83.80, and 82.60 December, with resistance of 90.10, 92.50 and 95.00 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday as a major hurricane moved onshore Florida. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but nor for production areas in Florida that are expected to be impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are now poor as the storm could cause major damage to trees and fruit. It will take another day or two to fully understand the damage the storm caused but damage is expected to be very big. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get heavy rains. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 194.00 and 204.00 November. Support is at 184.00, 179.00, and 175.00 November, with resistance at 192.00, 195.00, and 198.00 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower and as the lack of deliveries from producers to the cash market continues. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for the coming week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. A typhoon is coming to Vietnam but ideas are that damage to Coffee and trees will be minimal and confined to minor production areas in the north of the country. The cash market remains strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.444 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 197.89 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 232.00, 241.00, and 242.00 December. Support is at 223.00, 221.00, and 217.00 December, and resistance is at 232.00, 234.00 and 237.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2150, 2100, and 2050 November, and resistance is at 2220, 2260, and 2300 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower as the US Dollar was firm by the end of the day. Futures held together as the supply available to the market remains short. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil, and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand. UNICA said that the Brazil Sugar Cane crush was 39.5 million tons, up 2.5% from the previous two week period. The mills produce 2.9 million tons of Sugar and 2.1 billion liters of Ethanol. Sugar production was 44.9% of the mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1690 March and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 532.00, 541.00, and 543.00 December.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was higher yesterday as the US Dollar turned lower on the day. It was a consolidation day for the Cocoa market. The fundamentals still argue for lower prices but the price action yesterday implied that higher prices are coming to both markets in the coming days. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop but the buy side of the market might be waiting too long to extend coverage. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.679 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2240, 2190, and 2160 December, with resistance at 2320, 2350, and 2390 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1870 December, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 December.