About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 29
For the week ended Sep 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton
in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 279.8 -29.7 10685.8 11074.7 3558.5 2.0
hrw 18.1 0.0 3009.9 4259.2 869.2 1.7
srw 176.8 -30.0 2034.6 1715.2 591.4 0.0
hrs 40.1 0.0 3089.9 2977.4 1096.3 0.0
white 26.3 0.3 2383.8 2001.0 907.8 0.3
durum 18.5 0.0 167.6 121.9 93.7 0.0
corn 512.0 160.0 12995.6 25316.1 11394.3 250.5
soybeans 1003.0 -30.0 26730.4 24199.9 25516.1 0.0
soymeal 86.3 150.2 12100.8 12347.8 598.5 2176.3
soyoil -5.0 0.7 697.8 697.6 21.9 6.5
upland cotton 30.2 41.5 8019.4 7223.8 6193.5 995.2
pima cotton 1.2 0.3 103.9 215.0 89.7 0.3
sorghum 53.2 0.0 292.9 2351.3 276.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 30.2 11.6 0.0
rice 7.9 0.0 461.2 864.0 236.7 0.0

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Grain Stocks, Small Grains
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2022 (million bushels)
Average Range USDA June 2022 USDA Sept. 2021
Corn 1,497 1,295-1,575 4,346 1,235
Soybeans 247 220-275 971 257
Wheat 1,795 1,663-1,950 660 1,774
***
2022 Wheat Production
USDA USDA
Average Range August 2021
All Wheat 1,784 1,750-1,806 1,783 1,646
Winter Wheat 1,192 1,165-1,205 1,198 1,277
Hard Red Winter 573 555-590 576 749
Soft Red Winter 379 365-390 381 361
White Winter 239 225-250 240 167
Other Spring 517 503-540 512 331
Durum 75 71-76 74 37

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower and as concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor continued. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry as long as both countries can export. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 854, 849, and 819 December, with resistance at 922, 934, and 954 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives . Support is at 927, 896, and 865 December, with resistance at 990, 1010, and 1030 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1043 and 1148 December. Support is at 929, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 988, 1004, and 1056 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday on a lower US Dollar as the harvest pressure continued. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Yield reports are variable to very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1727, 1719, and 1697 November and resistance is at 1742, 1755, and 1762 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower and as the harvest comes closer in the US. Oats were higher as well. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 659, 654, and 647 December, and resistance is at 682, 699, and 701 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 375 and 339 December. Support is at 369, 364, and 358 December, and resistance is at 400, 411, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower and as the US harvest comes closer. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1394, 1339, and 1326 November. Support is at 1380, 1373, and 1352 November, and resistance is at 1437, 1460, and 1489 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 424.00, 399.00, and 396.00 October. Support is at 4219.00, 417.00, and 408.00 October, and resistance is at 430.00 435.00, and 445.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6340, 6080, and 6000 October. Support is at 6400, 65290, and 6200 October, with resistance at 6760, 7000, and 7040 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again yesterday and today as the outside markets were also soft. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but the private surveyors reported a big increase in demand in its reports released last week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 838 November. Support is at 816.00, 808.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3280 and 2730 December. Support is at 3160, 3040, and 2920 December, with resistance at 3430, 3640, and 3770 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
148 Dec
225 Dec
185 Dec
195 Nov

October
148 Dec
225 Dec
185 Dec
195 Nov

November
139 Dec
215 Dec
1685 Dec
165 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 829.10 0.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 868.50 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 9.40
Basis: Vancouver 893.50 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 9.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 826.00 0.00 Nov. 2022 up 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 859.10 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
Basis: Vancouver 884.10 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 812.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 827.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 835.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 815.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 830.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 837.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 740.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 650.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3350.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 284.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.633)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 139,327 lots, or 8.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 6,017 6,106 5,985 6,071 6,017 6,050 33 98,975 104,489
Jan-23 5,914 5,969 5,884 5,946 5,896 5,931 35 26,110 64,951
Mar-23 5,800 5,856 5,772 5,832 5,796 5,815 19 13,558 29,324
May-23 5,777 5,837 5,764 5,818 5,777 5,800 23 672 2,144
Jul-23 5,758 5,799 5,758 5,799 5,747 5,778 31 2 311
Sep-23 5,693 5,731 5,675 5,730 5,692 5,713 21 10 20
Corn
Turnover: 379,051 lots, or 10.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,742 2,756 2,736 2,744 2,744 2,746 2 56,588 174,459
Jan-23 2,760 2,778 2,754 2,766 2,763 2,766 3 267,654 799,278
Mar-23 2,785 2,798 2,774 2,787 2,782 2,787 5 23,913 216,459
May-23 2,833 2,843 2,827 2,834 2,835 2,835 0 22,204 110,557
Jul-23 2,852 2,858 2,841 2,847 2,850 2,849 -1 8,348 53,473
Sep-23 2,865 2,875 2,859 2,865 2,867 2,866 -1 344 2,699
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,264,023 lots, or 51.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,664 4,824 4,654 4,800 4,645 4,739 94 81,067 159,891
Dec-22 4,308 4,427 4,277 4,413 4,286 4,353 67 42,048 144,151
Jan-23 4,065 4,153 4,053 4,141 4,054 4,102 48 973,875 1,532,148
Mar-23 3,910 3,979 3,884 3,964 3,898 3,934 36 11,248 58,973
May-23 3,740 3,784 3,703 3,771 3,730 3,742 12 125,050 251,420
Jul-23 3,712 3,756 3,675 3,743 3,704 3,715 11 17,926 24,802
Aug-23 3,750 3,785 3,712 3,778 3,757 3,748 -9 4,615 10,808
Sep-23 3,727 3,742 3,682 3,738 3,735 3,710 -25 8,194 6,172
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,188,741 lots, or 83.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 7,312 7,400 7,056 7,278 7,450 7,328 -122 386 819
Nov-22 7,184 7,396 7,118 7,372 7,356 7,268 -88 21,174 50,310
Dec-22 7,096 7,284 7,002 7,248 7,264 7,142 -122 6,757 62,029
Jan-23 6,988 7,170 6,882 7,106 7,158 7,030 -128 1,094,071 481,082
Feb-23 6,982 7,180 6,910 7,100 7,186 7,068 -118 8,508 37,256
Mar-23 7,002 7,196 6,930 7,124 7,192 7,094 -98 5,048 21,668
Apr-23 6,998 7,208 6,946 7,124 7,200 7,104 -96 7,545 19,370
May-23 6,998 7,212 6,956 7,130 7,212 7,084 -128 45,107 70,520
Jun-23 7,084 7,084 7,084 7,084 7,224 7,084 -140 1 53
Jul-23 7,034 7,200 6,942 7,042 7,136 7,090 -46 17 153
Aug-23 6,980 7,180 6,980 7,040 7,072 7,094 22 14 24
Sep-23 7,010 7,160 6,958 7,086 7,152 7,048 -104 113 294
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 730,872 lots, or 64.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,596 9,800 9,580 9,736 9,494 9,676 182 18,060 49,264
Dec-22 9,084 9,306 9,070 9,276 9,084 9,204 120 6,745 73,718
Jan-23 8,790 8,928 8,716 8,906 8,816 8,828 12 661,680 427,400
Mar-23 8,294 8,468 8,254 8,404 8,394 8,354 -40 5,156 40,644
May-23 8,240 8,384 8,174 8,276 8,338 8,272 -66 33,377 59,116
Jul-23 8,178 8,318 8,114 8,226 8,260 8,236 -24 3,025 13,105
Aug-23 8,222 8,278 8,096 8,186 8,216 8,204 -12 2,571 16,318
Sep-23 8,148 8,236 8,080 8,132 8,194 8,164 -30 258 525
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322