About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved a little higher but as concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor increased. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 849, 819, and 810 December, with resistance at 894, 922, and 934 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives . Support is at 927, 896, and 865 December, with resistance at 964, 990, and 1010 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1043 and 1148 December. Support is at 929, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 960, 988, and 1004 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday as the harvest pressure continued. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Yield reports are variable to very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1687 November. Support is at 1719, 1697, and 1685 November and resistance is at 1742, 1755, and 1762 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 28
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.43 10.33 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.09 10.70 0.00
Brokens 9.55 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to a little higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved slightly higher and as the harvest comes closer in the US. Oats were lower. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 659, 654, and 647 December, and resistance is at 682, 699, and 701 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 375 and 339 December. Support is at 364, 358, and 352 December, and resistance is at 400, 411, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mostly a little lower again yesterday as the US Dollar moved a little higher and as the US harvest comes closer. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1394, 1339, and 1326 November. Support is at 1408, 1380, and 1373 November, and resistance is at 1437, 1460, and 1489 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 424.00, 399.00, and 396.00 October. Support is at 425.00, 419.00, and 417.00 October, and resistance is at 435.00 445.00, and 458.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6340, 6080, and 6000 October. Support is at 6560, 6500, and 6400 October, with resistance at 6760, 7000, and 7040 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again yesterday and today as the outside markets were also soft. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but the private surveyors reported a big increase in demand in its reports released last week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 838 November. Support is at 816.00, 808.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3280 and 2730 December. Support is at 3400, 3280, and 3160 December, with resistance at 3640, 3730, and 3920 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

October
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

November
139 Dec
215 Dec
165 Dec
165 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 826.00 0.00 Nov. 2022 up 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 859.10 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
Basis: Vancouver 884.10 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 792.50 -65.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 802.50 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 812.50 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -50.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 795.00 -65.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 805.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 815.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 730.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 635.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3300.00 -250.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 285.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6275)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,025 lots, or 7.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 6,017 6,061 5,978 6,003 6,023 6,017 -6 87,771 99,643
Jan-23 5,908 5,938 5,869 5,895 5,905 5,896 -9 24,460 63,769
Mar-23 5,813 5,837 5,769 5,778 5,797 5,796 -1 12,461 26,433
May-23 5,815 5,819 5,761 5,778 5,787 5,777 -10 311 2,525
Jul-23 5,783 5,783 5,723 5,748 5,746 5,747 1 13 311
Sep-23 5,704 5,704 5,678 5,702 5,671 5,692 21 9 24
Corn
Turnover: 500,051 lots, or 13.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,763 2,769 2,724 2,739 2,757 2,744 -13 81,590 187,812
Jan-23 2,777 2,787 2,742 2,755 2,779 2,763 -16 356,826 800,061
Mar-23 2,806 2,811 2,765 2,775 2,799 2,782 -17 31,500 210,013
May-23 2,867 2,867 2,820 2,830 2,850 2,835 -15 20,945 106,754
Jul-23 2,868 2,875 2,834 2,845 2,862 2,850 -12 8,350 50,785
Sep-23 2,882 2,889 2,850 2,858 2,878 2,867 -11 840 2,711
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,115,967 lots, or 4.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,628 4,678 4,605 4,652 4,614 4,645 31 62,184 172,333
Dec-22 4,262 4,319 4,250 4,290 4,251 4,286 35 42,388 143,043
Jan-23 4,051 4,086 4,018 4,060 4,030 4,054 24 865,922 1,466,602
Mar-23 3,900 3,925 3,864 3,898 3,872 3,898 26 7,668 56,369
May-23 3,723 3,759 3,698 3,730 3,718 3,730 12 105,058 252,199
Jul-23 3,702 3,733 3,672 3,709 3,693 3,704 11 21,890 23,022
Aug-23 3,782 3,795 3,724 3,749 3,756 3,757 1 3,713 9,513
Sep-23 3,750 3,772 3,700 3,727 3,736 3,735 -1 7,144 6,455
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,055,488 lots, or 75.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 7,466 7,608 7,222 7,340 7,442 7,450 8 340 1,091
Nov-22 7,444 7,478 7,224 7,280 7,416 7,356 -60 21,556 54,645
Dec-22 7,360 7,390 7,122 7,170 7,330 7,264 -66 7,923 62,063
Jan-23 7,272 7,296 7,016 7,054 7,254 7,158 -96 967,481 504,841
Feb-23 7,300 7,316 7,044 7,086 7,272 7,186 -86 8,219 35,620
Mar-23 7,320 7,334 7,070 7,104 7,292 7,192 -100 6,466 20,534
Apr-23 7,320 7,340 7,078 7,102 7,320 7,200 -120 8,590 19,365
May-23 7,332 7,352 7,084 7,106 7,318 7,212 -106 34,763 67,916
Jun-23 – – – 7,224 7,224 7,224 0 0 52
Jul-23 7,268 7,268 7,050 7,050 7,300 7,136 -164 24 153
Aug-23 7,044 7,114 7,044 7,062 7,256 7,072 -184 4 20
Sep-23 7,266 7,270 7,074 7,090 7,256 7,152 -104 122 281
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 757,057 lots, or 66.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,502 9,670 9,384 9,630 9,440 9,494 54 15,056 53,391
Dec-22 9,166 9,216 8,964 9,140 9,084 9,084 0 5,466 73,580
Jan-23 8,900 8,930 8,702 8,794 8,826 8,816 -10 702,066 438,569
Mar-23 8,458 8,492 8,292 8,344 8,412 8,394 -18 5,810 39,655
May-23 8,432 8,450 8,246 8,278 8,394 8,338 -56 22,749 56,806
Jul-23 8,316 8,372 8,180 8,216 8,302 8,260 -42 2,742 12,379
Aug-23 8,324 8,336 8,156 8,190 8,258 8,216 -42 3,016 16,102
Sep-23 8,258 8,290 8,142 8,164 8,228 8,194 -34 152 509
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322