About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharpy higher and on weak export sales reported in the weekly report released last Thursday. Price trends remain down. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing n the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.05 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 923 bales, from 715 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 88.00, 86.60, and 82.80 December, with resistance of 92.50, 95.00 and 97.80 December.

Crop Progress
Date 25-Sep 18-Sep 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 67 59 58 62
Cotton Harvested 15 11 11 14
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 27 27 27 4
Cotton Last Week 17 22 28 29 4
Cotton Last Year 1 5 29 55 10

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday on a sharply higher US Dollar that caused general selling in most commodities markets. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures, but the weather is likely to change now with the arrival of the hurricane. How much damage potential exists depends on the track of the storm, but there probably will be some damage to Oranges. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get heavy rains. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 175.00, 174.00, and 169.00 November, with resistance at 182.00, 185.00, and 189.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday despite a much higher US Dollar as the lack of deliveries from producers to the cash market was key. No one is ready to move Coffee at current price levels and there are doubts that there is a lot of Coffee available right now. CONAB earlier in the week estimated total Coffee production this year at 50.38 million bags, from 47.72 million last year and 53.43 million estimated earlier in the year. Arabica production is estimated at 32.41 million bags and Robusta production is estimated at 17.97 million bags. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. The weather forecasts for Brazil Coffee areas call for showers. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. More showers and rains are in the forecast for the coming week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. A typhoon is coming to Vietnam but ideas are tht damage to Coffee and trees will be minimal and confined to minor production areas in the north of the country. The cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.460 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 196.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 232.00, 241.00, and 242.00 December. Support is at 223.00, 217.00, and 216.00 December, and resistance is at 232.00, 234.00 and 237.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed, and the nearby months led the way higher as supplies were not strong enough to meet the demand. It looks like the supply side is still short. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 17680, and 1640 March. Support is at 1750, 1720, and 1690 March and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 546.00 and 560.00 December. Support is at 531.00, 520.00, and 510.00 December and resistance is at 541.00, 543.00, and 549.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday. New York was the weakest market as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Trends are mixed in New York. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.692 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2200 December. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 December, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2350 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1920 December. Support is at 1880, 1870, and 1640 December, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1970 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322