About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 26
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sep 26, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 22, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/22/2022 09/15/2022 09/23/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,414 6,550
CORN 459,420 549,476 705,288 1,606,639 1,327,329
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 200
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 20,260 8,565 136,758 76,632 151,808
SOYBEANS 257,547 519,698 486,179 1,171,257 989,999
SUNFLOWER 288 0 0 672 0
WHEAT 520,464 836,620 383,584 7,778,572 8,134,820
Total 1,257,979 1,914,359 1,711,809 10,641,672 10,610,730
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 25-Sep 18-Sep 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 67 59 58 62
Cotton Harvested 15 11 11 14
Corn Dented 92 87 96 94
Corn Mature 58 40 72 61
Corn Harvested 12 7 17 14
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 42 22 55 47
Soybeans Harvested 3 5 5
Sorghum Coloring 85 74 91 88
Sorghum Mature 44 36 49 44
Sorghum Harvested 23 20 21 23
Rice Harvested 59 45 60 63
Winter Wheat Planted 31 21 32 30
Winter Wheat Emerged 9 2 8 6
Spring Wheat Harvested 96 94 100 97
Barley Harvested 97 94 100 98
Sunflowers Harvested 0 2 1

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 27 27 27 4
Cotton Last Week 17 22 28 29 4
Cotton Last Year 1 5 29 55 10

Corn This Week 9 12 27 42 10
Corn Last Week 9 12 27 41 11
Corn Last Year 5 10 26 45 14

Soybeans This Week 5 10 30 46 9
Soybeans Last Week 5 10 30 46 9
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 28 47 11

Sorghum This Week 18 29 32 20 2
Sorghum Last Week 17 29 33 19 1
Sorghum Last Year 5 11 28 45 11

Pastures and Ranges This Week 20 23 31 22 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 20 23 29 23 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 23 23 31 20 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. Support still comes from supply concerns tied to the Ukraine-Russia war and dry and hot weather seen once again in the western US Great Plains and much of Argentina. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 849, 819, and 810 December, with resistance at 891, 922, and 934 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed . Support is at 896, 865, and 858 December, with resistance at 952, 990, and 1010 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 9307, 885, and 867 December, and resistance is at 952, 988, and 1004 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday as the US Dollar rallied sharply and as the harvest pressure mounted. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Yield reports are variable to very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1687 November. Support is at 1719, 1697, and 1685 November and resistance is at 1742, 1762, and 1767 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher and as the harvest comes closer in the US. Oats were also lower. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 659, 654, and 647 December, and resistance is at 682, 699, and 701 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 375 and 339 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 364 December, and resistance is at 400, 411, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher and as the US harvest comes closer. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1394, 1339, and 1326 November. Support is at 1380, 1373, and 1352 November, and resistance is at 1434, 1460, and 1489 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 424.00, 399.00, and 396.00 October. Support is at 425.00, 419.00, and 417.00 October, and resistance is at 445.00 458.00, and 461.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6340, 6080, and 6000 October. Support is at 6560, 6500, and 6400 October, with resistance at 706760, 7000, and 7040 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again yesterday and today as the outside markets were also soft and the US Dollar moved sharply higher. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but the private surveyors reported a big increase in demand in its reports released last week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 838 November. Support is at 795.00, 776.00, and 766.00 November, with resistance at 832.00, 857.00, and 870.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3280 and 2730 December. Support is at 3400, 3280, and 3160 December, with resistance at 3640, 3730, and 3920 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

October
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

November
139 Dec
215 Dec
165 Dec
165 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 23
WINNIPEG, Sept. 23 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 819.60 0.00 Nov 2022 up 17.40
Track Thunder Bay 848.70 30.00 Nov 2022 up 2.10
Track Vancouver 873.60 55.00 Nov 2022 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 857.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 862.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 872.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 882.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 865.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 790.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 665.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3550.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 292.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.609)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 92,399 lots, or 5.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 6,017 6,044 6,004 6,023 6,017 6,023 6 64,177 104,372
Jan-23 5,890 5,926 5,890 5,902 5,913 5,905 -8 19,314 63,539
Mar-23 5,802 5,816 5,784 5,799 5,801 5,797 -4 8,617 23,166
May-23 5,788 5,797 5,775 5,790 5,781 5,787 6 284 2,538
Jul-23 5,756 5,760 5,724 5,744 5,753 5,746 -7 4 311
Sep-23 5,673 5,673 5,668 5,668 5,675 5,671 -4 3 23
Corn
Turnover: 536,748 lots, or 1.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,764 2,770 2,743 2,756 2,778 2,757 -21 87,791 203,137
Jan-23 2,788 2,794 2,765 2,777 2,802 2,779 -23 368,356 781,952
Mar-23 2,815 2,815 2,785 2,802 2,822 2,799 -23 32,574 204,343
May-23 2,858 2,865 2,831 2,852 2,874 2,850 -24 35,496 107,234
Jul-23 2,873 2,878 2,845 2,864 2,888 2,862 -26 11,723 47,387
Sep-23 2,888 2,894 2,866 2,880 2,898 2,878 -20 808 2,230
Soymeal
Turnover: 818,999 lots, or 33.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,601 4,648 4,578 4,618 4,601 4,614 13 57,178 183,339
Dec-22 4,235 4,274 4,230 4,250 4,235 4,251 16 27,788 138,006
Jan-23 4,012 4,048 4,010 4,036 4,016 4,030 14 613,377 1,478,006
Mar-23 3,851 3,889 3,851 3,874 3,859 3,872 13 7,626 55,472
May-23 3,720 3,734 3,703 3,716 3,707 3,718 11 89,297 244,833
Jul-23 3,691 3,708 3,680 3,693 3,682 3,693 11 15,101 21,652
Aug-23 3,755 3,782 3,740 3,782 3,740 3,756 16 3,869 9,290
Sep-23 3,729 3,754 3,723 3,740 3,722 3,736 14 4,763 8,115
Palm Oil
Turnover: 977,470 lots, or 70.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 7,646 7,646 7,292 7,496 7,726 7,442 -284 763 1,269
Nov-22 7,528 7,548 7,286 7,434 7,606 7,416 -190 21,021 58,290
Dec-22 7,420 7,462 7,208 7,348 7,526 7,330 -196 8,115 60,739
Jan-23 7,342 7,380 7,124 7,260 7,442 7,254 -188 899,461 488,069
Feb-23 7,346 7,400 7,152 7,292 7,452 7,272 -180 6,553 34,024
Mar-23 7,364 7,414 7,172 7,300 7,472 7,292 -180 5,164 18,840
Apr-23 7,384 7,434 7,186 7,250 7,468 7,320 -148 5,782 19,140
May-23 7,396 7,444 7,200 7,318 7,496 7,318 -178 30,481 65,053
Jun-23 7,224 7,228 7,224 7,228 7,374 7,224 -150 9 52
Jul-23 7,340 7,376 7,196 7,298 7,406 7,300 -106 12 141
Aug-23 7,286 7,286 7,230 7,258 7,518 7,256 -262 5 19
Sep-23 7,308 7,378 7,194 7,240 7,454 7,256 -198 104 216
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 783,674 lots, or 69.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,522 9,532 9,328 9,492 9,530 9,440 -90 13,182 55,783
Dec-22 9,142 9,186 8,932 9,138 9,166 9,084 -82 8,347 72,408
Jan-23 8,810 8,910 8,708 8,868 8,884 8,826 -58 718,356 440,655
Mar-23 8,458 8,514 8,312 8,432 8,488 8,412 -76 4,836 38,004
May-23 8,432 8,488 8,280 8,388 8,490 8,394 -96 32,774 53,844
Jul-23 8,364 8,408 8,214 8,316 8,374 8,302 -72 2,597 11,661
Aug-23 8,382 8,396 8,188 8,252 8,366 8,258 -108 3,282 15,290
Sep-23 8,262 8,342 8,168 8,256 8,342 8,228 -114 300 436
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322