About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply lower to limit down on Friday and lower for the week as the US Dollar moved sharpy higher and on weak export sales reported in the weekly report. Price trends remain down. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. The late season weather in the Great Plains was better and the crop showed improvement but production is still very short. The harvest is appearing n the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 93.22 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 715 bales, from 715 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 91.60, and 88.80 December, with resistance of 97.80, 103.00 and 106.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 302,640
: Positions :
: 37,219 26,297 83,653 84,122 168,655 80,941 13,003 285,935 291,608: 16,705 11,032
: Changes from: September 13, 2022 (Change in open interest: 11,828) :
: -5,904 -255 8,109 9,167 979 1 1,241 11,372 10,074: 456 1,754
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 8.7 27.6 27.8 55.7 26.7 4.3 94.5 96.4: 5.5 3.6
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 69 91 55 65 50 19 232 215:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week as supplies look short for the market. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 194.00 November. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 174.00 November, with resistance at 184.00, 189.00, and 192.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,363 :
: Positions :
: 1,138 8,476 2,725 0 0 3,365 560 82 880 427 1,114 :
: Changes from: September 13, 2022 :
: -145 64 93 0 0 277 250 -14 90 -101 50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 74.6 24.0 0.0 0.0 29.6 4.9 0.7 7.7 3.8 9.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 65 :
: 10 11 6 0 0 22 . . 8 8 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but a little higher for the week as the US Dollar rallied sharply on Friday. CONAB earlier in the week estimated total Coffee production this year at 50.38 million bags, from 47.72 million last year and 53.43 million estimated earlier in the year. Arabica production is estimated at 32.41 million bags and Robusta production is estimated at 17.97 million bags. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. The weather forecasts for Brazil Coffee areas call for showers. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. Overall Brazil Coffee exports were less in data released last week. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. The cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.472 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195518 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,523 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 216.00, 211.00, and 210.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 231.00 and 234.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2350 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 240,785
: Positions :
: 32,849 8,823 68,835 71,572 141,337 57,850 13,981 231,106 232,976: 9,679 7,809
: Changes from: September 13, 2022 (Change in open interest: -4,816) :
: -1,914 -1,994 1,012 -3,731 -4,482 -8 607 -4,641 -4,857: -175 41
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 3.7 28.6 29.7 58.7 24.0 5.8 96.0 96.8: 4.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 59 118 108 115 50 23 334 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/20/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
128,488 61,169 83,089 1,531 9,836 3,519
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 47.6% 64.7% 1.2% 7.7% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 37 40 7 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,370 3,596 6,002 6,212 2,177 16,205
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.1% 2.8% 4.7% 4.8% 1.7% 12.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 10 16 15 8 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,480 4,064
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week despite lower moves late in the week, and the nearby months led the way higher as supplies were not strong enough to meet the demand. It looks like the supply side is still short. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin and now is also worried about demand after recent price strength and because of the loss of economic power generated by the war in Ukraine. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in eastern areas and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1660, and 1640 March. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1660 March and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 510.00 and 485.00 December. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 540.00, 543.00, and 549.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 867,633
: Positions :
: 75,525 115,041 156,923 319,186 474,039 248,448 52,765 800,082 798,768: 67,550 68,864
: Changes from: September 13, 2022 (Change in open interest: -35,128) :
: -8,322 13,662 -27,422 1,136 -17,890 3,007 -13,118 -31,601 -44,767: -3,528 9,639
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 13.3 18.1 36.8 54.6 28.6 6.1 92.2 92.1: 7.8 7.9
: Total Traders: 242 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 58 73 71 74 39 19 202 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/20/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
79,472 24,722 62,127 6,514 4,914 2,402
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 31.1% 78.2% 8.2% 6.2% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
110 34 37 5 6 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,781 1,363 4,516 1,470 682 1,031
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
40.0% 1.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 3 17 7 2 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,036 2,437
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.9% 3.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both lower last week and short term trends started to turn down. New York was the weakest market as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Trends are mixed in New York. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 5.638 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 December. Support is at 2220, 2190, and 2160 December, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2350 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 December. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 December, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1970 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 356,082
: Positions :
: 55,142 80,600 87,633 138,493 138,161 60,334 38,916 341,602 345,310: 14,480 10,772
: Changes from: September 13, 2022 (Change in open interest: -1,751) :
: -737 -1,949 2,017 -648 -1,762 -1,415 119 -782 -1,575: -969 -177
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 22.6 24.6 38.9 38.8 16.9 10.9 95.9 97.0: 4.1 3.0
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 69 70 55 37 31 21 204 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/20/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
292,010 151,222 192,112 32,228 29,194 15,514
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 51.8% 65.8% 11.0% 10.0% 5.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 50 49 13 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
41,293 11,707 10,494 10,663 3,522 27,193
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 1.2% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 14 20 14 15 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,403 2,274
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.8%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322