About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday on weak export sales reported in the weekly report and on strength n the US Dollar. Price trends turned down last week when futures broke through some short term support areas and the selling has continued this week. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. The late season weather in the Great Plains was better and the crop showed improvement but production is still very short. The harvest is appearing n the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 97.56 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 715 bales, from 769 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 91.60, and 88.80 December, with resistance of 102.00, 106.00 and 108.40 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 21
As of Sep 16. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 52,811 53,729 -918 18,685 19,093 -408
Mar 23 14,314 13,942 372 3,303 3,288 15
May 23 8,465 8,080 385 239 239 0
Jul 23 15,395 15,482 -87 422 362 60
Dec 23 6,442 7,087 -645 14,215 14,141 74
Mar 24 309 309 0 0 0 0
May 24 307 395 -88 0 0 0
Jul 24 415 415 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 444 444 0
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 98,458 99,439 -981 37,528 37,787 -259
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 22 67 72 -5
Dec 22 109,595 111,380 -1,785
Mar 23 46,829 46,299 530
May 23 18,828 18,042 786
Jul 23 12,686 12,666 20
Dec 23 20,297 19,877 420
Mar 24 2,045 2,049 -4
May 24 311 223 88
Jul 24 116 116 0
Dec 24 144 142 2
Mar 25 18 18 0

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed, with nearby months a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 184.00 and 194.00 November. Support is at 178.00, 174.00, and 169.00 November, with resistance at 182.00, 184.00, and 192.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher and there was not much new to talk about. CONAB earlier in the week estimated total Coffee production this year at 50.38 million bags, from 47.72 million last year and 53.43 million estimated earlier in the year. Arabica production is estimated at 32.41 million bags and Robusta production is estimated at 17.97 million bags. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. The weather forecasts for Brazil Coffee areas call for showers. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. Overall Brazil Coffee exports were less in data released last week. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. The cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.485 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,523 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 216.00, 211.00, and 210.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 231.00 and 234.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday with the nearby months leading the way. It looks like the supply side is still short and traders are looking to fill the demand. White Sugar futures took the biggest hit in the trading. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength and because of the loss of economic power generated by the war in Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in eastern areas and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1720, and 1690 March and resistance is at 1830, 1850, and 1860 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 546.00 and 560.00 December. Support is at 532.00, 520.00, and 518.00 December and resistance is at 543.00, 548.00, and 554.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both lower yesterday and short term trends started to turn down. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Trends are mixed in New York. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.638 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 December. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2430 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1860, 1840, and 1820 December, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1970 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322