About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for Sep Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Sep 1 100.0 99.0- 101.3
Placed in Aug 98.1 93.2- 100.9
Marketed in Aug 105.9 99.8- 106.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sep 1 in Aug in Aug
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 97.7 106.0
Allendale Inc. 99.9 97.7 105.7
HedgersEdge 100.1 98.6 105.4
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.5 100.9 106.0
Midwest Market Solutions 99.5 97.9 99.8
NFC Markets 99.0 93.2 106.4
Texas A&M Extension 100.3 100.0 106.0
US Commodities 101.3 96.5 106.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday on supply concerns tied to the Ukraine-Russia war and dry and hot weather seen once again in the western US Great Plains and much of Argentina. Russia has called for new recruits of 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 885, 861, and 849 December, with resistance at 934, 954, and 1002 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 958, 934, and 896 December, with resistance at 1010, 1043, and 1082 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1043 and 1148 December. Support is at 948, 938, and 907 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1056, and 1066 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday on weak export sales as reported in the weekly report and as the harvest pressure mounted. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Field yields have been about 190 to 195 bushels per acre in Arkansas which is a strong number.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1724 and 1687 November. Support is at 1723, 1697, and 1685 November and resistance is at 1762, 1767, and 1783 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher as the harvest comes closer in the US. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week although Crude Oil moved higher. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 712 and 744 December. Support is at 680, 668, and 659 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 432 and 458 December. Support is at 400, 389, and 373 December, and resistance is at 424, 435, and 450 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower yesterday as the US harvest comes closer. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends could be turning up. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1434, 1432, and 1422 November, and resistance is at 1489, 1509, and 1523 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 439.00, and 435.00 October, and resistance is at 458.00 461.00, and 464.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6720, 6560, and 6500 October, with resistance at 7000, 7040, and 7170 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS and AmSpec both reported a big increase in demand in its reports released earlier in the week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher yesterday on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 776.00, 766.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3630, 3520, and 3400 December, with resistance at 3960, 4020, and 4180 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

October
149 Dec
225 Dec
170 Dec
195 Nov

November
139 Dec
215 Dec
165 Dec
165 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 785.60 0.00 Nov 2022 dn 1.00
Track Thunder Bay 832.20 30.00 Nov 2022 up 16.60
Track Vancouver 857.20 55.00 Nov 2022 up 16.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 902.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 917.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 945.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 905.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 920.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 947.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 850.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 720.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3800.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 300.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.576)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,498 lots, or 7.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 6,009 6,082 5,990 6,075 6,017 6,050 33 95,262 113,217
Jan-23 5,932 5,959 5,914 5,952 5,918 5,939 21 22,342 61,652
Mar-23 5,811 5,849 5,809 5,840 5,810 5,829 19 9,529 20,872
May-23 5,810 5,837 5,804 5,824 5,808 5,823 15 353 2,599
Jul-23 5,762 5,785 5,758 5,785 5,772 5,768 -4 3 310
Sep-23 5,736 5,749 5,721 5,734 5,722 5,734 12 9 18
Corn
Turnover: 375,022 lots, or 10.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,815 2,820 2,793 2,798 2,816 2,803 -13 64,543 231,249
Jan-23 2,851 2,853 2,823 2,828 2,847 2,835 -12 275,642 781,655
Mar-23 2,863 2,870 2,844 2,844 2,866 2,853 -13 12,417 193,775
May-23 2,908 2,915 2,892 2,898 2,911 2,899 -12 14,720 97,280
Jul-23 2,919 2,925 2,904 2,908 2,922 2,911 -11 7,272 44,075
Sep-23 2,934 2,936 2,915 2,920 2,933 2,922 -11 428 1,947
Soymeal
Turnover: 979,849 lots, or 40.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,655 4,732 4,610 4,645 4,650 4,667 17 119,547 210,693
Dec-22 4,330 4,344 4,240 4,269 4,325 4,298 -27 35,189 131,924
Jan-23 4,067 4,082 4,038 4,047 4,067 4,058 -9 716,125 1,506,707
Mar-23 3,906 3,927 3,883 3,887 3,904 3,903 -1 13,905 53,603
May-23 3,741 3,765 3,728 3,733 3,741 3,746 5 77,322 241,785
Jul-23 3,716 3,735 3,704 3,707 3,714 3,719 5 11,819 16,749
Aug-23 3,760 3,770 3,744 3,750 3,750 3,757 7 2,791 8,372
Sep-23 3,731 3,750 3,722 3,732 3,727 3,738 11 3,151 4,114
Palm Oil
Turnover: 944,330 lots, or 73.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 8,184 8,222 7,962 8,002 8,184 8,096 -88 1,150 1,818
Nov-22 8,064 8,110 7,858 7,930 8,070 7,944 -126 17,196 66,436
Dec-22 7,998 8,024 7,774 7,844 7,990 7,864 -126 7,169 57,875
Jan-23 7,936 7,948 7,688 7,758 7,892 7,790 -102 851,764 434,029
Feb-23 7,916 7,954 7,706 7,768 7,900 7,786 -114 6,110 31,645
Mar-23 7,928 7,966 7,718 7,784 7,904 7,784 -120 6,680 17,281
Apr-23 7,926 7,968 7,726 7,788 7,906 7,814 -92 8,104 17,107
May-23 7,880 7,970 7,726 7,818 7,906 7,816 -90 46,116 56,543
Jun-23 7,830 7,830 7,830 7,830 7,866 7,830 -36 2 53
Jul-23 7,694 7,694 7,648 7,648 7,820 7,662 -158 3 128
Aug-23 7,750 7,750 7,750 7,750 7,784 7,750 -34 1 16
Sep-23 7,840 7,840 7,650 7,712 7,790 7,708 -82 35 83
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 688,548 lots, or 62.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,854 9,872 9,704 9,766 9,818 9,786 -32 11,197 62,599
Dec-22 9,526 9,542 9,360 9,410 9,504 9,446 -58 4,583 71,660
Jan-23 9,228 9,260 9,060 9,124 9,228 9,146 -82 641,625 435,806
Mar-23 8,880 8,880 8,696 8,758 8,852 8,770 -82 2,187 36,528
May-23 8,838 8,862 8,676 8,734 8,824 8,754 -70 21,346 49,216
Jul-23 8,760 8,766 8,598 8,650 8,748 8,662 -86 1,872 10,866
Aug-23 8,708 8,716 8,544 8,604 8,694 8,610 -84 5,626 13,859
Sep-23 8,658 8,658 8,518 8,548 8,648 8,554 -94 112 229
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322