About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for Sep Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Sep 1 100.0 99.0- 101.3
Placed in Aug 98.1 93.2- 100.9
Marketed in Aug 105.9 99.8- 106.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sep 1 in Aug in Aug
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 97.7 106.0
Allendale Inc. 99.9 97.7 105.7
HedgersEdge 100.1 98.6 105.4
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.5 100.9 106.0
Midwest Market Solutions 99.5 97.9 99.8
NFC Markets 99.0 93.2 106.4
Texas A&M Extension 100.3 100.0 106.0
US Commodities 101.3 96.5 106.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 22
For the week ended Sep 15, in thousand metric tons, except cotton
in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 183.5 1.7 10406.1 10784.6 3899.4 31.7
hrw 11.5 1.7 2991.9 4110.0 1056.5 1.7
srw -40.4 0.0 1857.8 1695.6 490.7 30.0
hrs 127.4 0.0 3049.7 2926.0 1227.4 0.0
white 64.0 0.0 2357.5 1926.2 1009.8 0.0
durum 21.0 0.0 149.1 126.9 115.0 0.0
corn 182.3 0.0 12483.7 24945.7 11457.0 90.5
soybeans 446.4 0.0 25727.3 23192.4 24782.3 30.0
soymeal -22.6 208.5 12014.5 12280.9 761.9 2026.1
soyoil -0.4 3.0 702.9 691.6 29.0 5.8
upland cotton 32.4 13.3 7989.2 6652.4 6351.2 953.7
pima cotton 0.3 0.0 102.6 198.2 89.5 0.0
sorghum 0.0 0.0 239.6 2272.5 227.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 25.2 11.6 0.0
rice 30.2 0.0 453.3 789.0 276.7 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday on supply concerns tied to the Ukraine-Russia war and dry and hot weather seen once again in the western US Great Plains and much of Argentina. No one is sure what will happen to exports from Ukraine and Russia but ideas are that they will both export aggressively as has been the case so far. Russia has called for new recruits of 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 861, 819, and 810 December, with resistance at 919, 934, and 954 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 934, 893, and 865 December, with resistance at 1010, 1043, and 1082 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1043 and 1148 December. Support is at 938, 907, and 880 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1056, and 1066 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Field yields have been about 190 to 195 bushels per acre in Arkansas which is a strong number.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1758, 1739 and 1723 November and resistance is at 1783, 1794, and 1808 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the harvest comes closer in the US and as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week although Crude Oil moved higher. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 105,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 101,600 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 712 and 744 December. Support is at 680, 668, and 659 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 432 and 458 December. Support is at 400, 389, and 373 December, and resistance is at 424, 435, and 450 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the US harvest comes closer and as the US Dollar moved much higher. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends could be turning up. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1520, 1527, and 1534 November. Support is at 1455, 1424, and 13432 November, and resistance is at 1489, 1509, and 1523 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 470.00 October. Support is at 446.00, 439.00, and 435.00 October, and resistance is at 458.00 461.00, and 464.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6720, 6560, and 6500 October, with resistance at 7000, 7040, and 7170 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today after the rally yesterday. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS and AmSpec both reported a big increase in demand in its reports released earlier in the week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was higher yesterday on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 776.00, 766.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3630, 3520, and 3400 December, with resistance at 3960, 4020, and 4180 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 147 Dec 225 Dec 170 Dec 190 Nov
October 147 Dec 225 Dec 170 Dec 190 Nov
November 139 Dec 2215 Dec 165 Dec 160 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 785.60 0.00 Nov 2022 dn 1.00
Track Thunder Bay 832.20 30.00 Nov 2022 up 16.60
Track Vancouver 857.20 55.00 Nov 2022 up 16.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 922.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 927.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 947.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 925.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 930.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 965.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 720.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 304.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5655)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 130,406 lots, or 7.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 6,023 6,046 5,984 6,038 5,980 6,017 37 83,578 108,440
Jan-23 5,920 5,950 5,885 5,932 5,881 5,918 37 34,252 58,635
Mar-23 5,805 5,836 5,781 5,820 5,758 5,810 52 12,339 18,667
May-23 5,804 5,824 5,775 5,816 5,764 5,808 44 207 2,587
Jul-23 5,769 5,788 5,756 5,788 5,714 5,772 58 19 310
Sep-23 5,725 5,743 5,700 5,725 5,691 5,722 31 11 15
Corn
Turnover: 347,104 lots, or 9.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,812 2,823 2,808 2,812 2,816 2,816 0 74,053 238,066
Jan-23 2,840 2,856 2,838 2,846 2,847 2,847 0 234,657 793,888
Mar-23 2,860 2,874 2,857 2,863 2,865 2,866 1 16,527 192,667
May-23 2,912 2,921 2,904 2,908 2,910 2,911 1 15,395 96,161
Jul-23 2,922 2,930 2,915 2,918 2,920 2,922 2 5,952 42,726
Sep-23 2,930 2,940 2,926 2,929 2,928 2,933 5 520 1,884
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,174,377 lots, or 48.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,610 4,688 4,607 4,669 4,571 4,650 79 102,589 217,927
Dec-22 4,298 4,362 4,286 4,339 4,263 4,325 62 31,333 128,054
Jan-23 4,051 4,103 4,035 4,077 4,028 4,067 39 903,478 1,526,244
Mar-23 3,895 3,943 3,869 3,917 3,890 3,904 14 23,471 53,033
May-23 3,732 3,769 3,709 3,758 3,725 3,741 16 89,704 229,233
Jul-23 3,712 3,741 3,683 3,729 3,700 3,714 14 19,204 15,720
Aug-23 3,759 3,770 3,730 3,761 3,739 3,750 11 3,049 8,047
Sep-23 3,727 3,748 3,705 3,733 3,720 3,727 7 1,549 2,559
Palm Oil
Turnover: 908,929 lots, or 71.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 8,178 8,288 8,076 8,186 8,006 8,184 178 888 2,511
Nov-22 8,062 8,172 7,938 8,068 7,904 8,070 166 19,394 69,352
Dec-22 8,004 8,084 7,866 7,970 7,802 7,990 188 9,007 56,239
Jan-23 7,910 7,988 7,766 7,898 7,730 7,892 162 831,857 418,352
Feb-23 7,876 7,990 7,782 7,904 7,750 7,900 150 8,054 30,872
Mar-23 7,882 7,998 7,794 7,928 7,756 7,904 148 4,424 16,482
Apr-23 7,904 8,046 7,796 7,828 7,748 7,906 158 5,557 15,994
May-23 7,910 7,998 7,784 7,924 7,748 7,906 158 29,715 47,937
Jun-23 – – – 7,866 7,866 7,866 0 0 53
Jul-23 7,878 7,878 7,792 7,792 7,756 7,820 64 3 127
Aug-23 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,668 7,784 116 1 16
Sep-23 7,804 7,840 7,766 7,802 7,658 7,790 132 29 75
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 738,605 lots, or 68.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,850 9,894 9,708 9,836 9,734 9,818 84 11,765 64,178
Dec-22 9,546 9,588 9,408 9,500 9,446 9,504 58 5,199 71,221
Jan-23 9,280 9,320 9,122 9,220 9,138 9,228 90 683,948 426,147
Mar-23 8,890 8,934 8,744 8,840 8,754 8,852 98 4,274 36,259
May-23 8,826 8,918 8,712 8,810 8,718 8,824 106 23,288 49,181
Jul-23 8,744 8,822 8,638 8,728 8,658 8,748 90 4,601 10,596
Aug-23 8,708 8,770 8,592 8,668 8,606 8,694 88 5,388 12,662
Sep-23 8,670 8,724 8,560 8,624 8,602 8,648 46 142 189
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322