About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for Sep Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Sep 1 100.0 99.0- 101.3
Placed in Aug 98.1 93.2- 100.9
Marketed in Aug 105.9 99.8- 106.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sep 1 in Aug in Aug
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.9 97.7 106.0
Allendale Inc. 99.9 97.7 105.7
HedgersEdge 100.1 98.6 105.4
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.5 100.9 106.0
Midwest Market Solutions 99.5 97.9 99.8
NFC Markets 99.0 93.2 106.4
Texas A&M Extension 100.3 100.0 106.0
US Commodities 101.3 96.5 106.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on supply concerns tied to the Ukraine-Russia war and dry and hot weather seen once again in the western US Great Plains and much of Argentina. No one is sure what will happen to exports from Ukraine and Russia but ideas are that they will both export aggressively as has been the case so far. USDA world supply and demand estimates showed a lot more Ukrainian and Russian Wheat production. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 861, 819, and 810 December, with resistance at 913, 917, and 934 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 957 and 971 December. Support is at 893, 865, and 858 December, with resistance at 959, 1010, and 1043 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 907 880, and 858 December, and resistance is at 959, 9567, and 1004 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Field yields have been about 190 to 195 bushels per acre in Arkansas which is a strong number.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1758, 1739 and 1723 November and resistance is at 1794, 1808, and 1824 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 21
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA e
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.79 9.93 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.46 10.28 0.00
Brokens 9.18 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in consolidation trading and the daily charts show that the market broke out higher from a bull flag formation. The trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week although Crude Oil moved higher. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 712 and 744 December. Support is at 680, 668, and 659 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 432 and 458 December. Support is at 400 389, and 373 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 425 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on harvest delays and as the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends could be turning up. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1520, 1527, and 1534 November. Support is at 1455, 1424, and 13432 November, and resistance is at 1509, 1523, and 1530 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 457.00 and 470.00 October. Support is at 439.00, 435.00, and 425.00 October, and resistance is at 455.00 458.00, and 461.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6720, 6560, and 6500 October, with resistance at 7000, 7040, and 7170 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today after the rally yesterday. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS and AmSpec both reported a big increase in demand in its reports released earlier in the week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was higher yesterday and as the Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and some came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 776.00, 766.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3400, and 3280 December, with resistance at 3960, 4020, and 4180 December.

DJ Malaysia’s Sept. 1-20 Palm-Oil Exports Rose 32.7%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Sept. 1-20 period are estimated to have risen 32.7% on month to 952,888 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
September 1-20 August 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 279,987 197,917
RBD Palm Oil 107,473 44,188
RBD Palm Stearin 101,649 70,541
Crude Palm Oil 163,500 144,866
Total* 952,888 718,291
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

October
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

November
144 Dec
220 Dec
160 Dec
189 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 786.60 0.00 Nov 2022 up 7.10
Track Thunder Bay 815.60 30.00 Nov 2022 dn 1.00
Track Vancouver 840.60 55.00 Nov 2022 dn 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 937.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 942.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 957.50 +30.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 967.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 940.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 945.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 870.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 720.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3850.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 304.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.55)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 180,330 lots, or 10.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,922 6,034 5,920 6,033 5,922 5,980 58 125,413 105,875
Jan-23 5,830 5,934 5,817 5,934 5,814 5,881 67 41,244 56,350
Mar-23 5,711 5,821 5,705 5,821 5,708 5,758 50 13,147 17,994
May-23 5,712 5,818 5,709 5,818 5,712 5,764 52 503 2,581
Jul-23 5,685 5,756 5,685 5,756 5,673 5,714 41 10 319
Sep-23 5,653 5,726 5,646 5,726 5,634 5,691 57 13 17
Corn
Turnover: 465,497 lots, or 1.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,811 2,833 2,809 2,817 2,805 2,816 11 93,625 240,335
Jan-23 2,838 2,865 2,835 2,849 2,832 2,847 15 323,834 795,194
Mar-23 2,855 2,882 2,851 2,867 2,851 2,865 14 20,006 191,642
May-23 2,900 2,927 2,900 2,913 2,898 2,910 12 21,509 92,661
Jul-23 2,914 2,934 2,914 2,923 2,910 2,920 10 5,336 41,516
Sep-23 2,924 2,938 2,921 2,933 2,922 2,928 6 1,187 1,699
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,053,263 lots, or 42.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,490 4,645 4,486 4,624 4,493 4,571 78 111,065 220,049
Dec-22 4,215 4,323 4,208 4,314 4,214 4,263 49 40,817 124,982
Jan-23 3,999 4,068 3,986 4,058 4,008 4,028 20 778,720 1,506,489
Mar-23 3,872 3,921 3,856 3,912 3,876 3,890 14 15,185 54,272
May-23 3,700 3,753 3,697 3,743 3,724 3,725 1 93,107 220,594
Jul-23 3,704 3,726 3,658 3,717 3,697 3,700 3 10,497 15,084
Aug-23 3,727 3,764 3,711 3,758 3,727 3,739 12 2,457 8,174
Sep-23 3,689 3,742 3,685 3,737 3,705 3,720 15 1,415 2,537
Palm Oil
Turnover: 897,156 lots, or 69.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 7,978 8,196 7,888 8,184 7,966 8,006 40 1,152 2,944
Nov-22 7,850 8,092 7,750 8,048 7,824 7,904 80 14,319 71,967
Dec-22 7,734 8,014 7,662 7,984 7,734 7,802 68 6,740 54,888
Jan-23 7,646 7,916 7,572 7,894 7,644 7,730 86 825,932 408,551
Feb-23 7,670 7,922 7,592 7,906 7,670 7,750 80 8,278 30,139
Mar-23 7,694 7,932 7,602 7,904 7,694 7,756 62 5,095 15,840
Apr-23 7,690 7,938 7,606 7,904 7,696 7,748 52 8,326 15,646
May-23 7,706 7,940 7,612 7,916 7,706 7,748 42 27,234 46,614
Jun-23 – – – 7,866 7,690 7,866 176 0 53
Jul-23 7,664 7,838 7,664 7,838 7,656 7,756 100 10 128
Aug-23 7,654 7,774 7,596 7,720 7,654 7,668 14 13 17
Sep-23 7,682 7,788 7,588 7,788 7,660 7,658 -2 57 68
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 718,700 lots, or 65.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,708 9,882 9,602 9,844 9,588 9,734 146 12,074 66,829
Dec-22 9,386 9,572 9,316 9,520 9,320 9,446 126 7,119 71,114
Jan-23 9,088 9,290 9,012 9,258 9,042 9,138 96 653,554 440,438
Mar-23 8,688 8,898 8,616 8,874 8,674 8,754 80 2,812 36,337
May-23 8,692 8,866 8,588 8,828 8,668 8,718 50 36,115 46,749
Jul-23 8,610 8,782 8,534 8,756 8,616 8,658 42 2,542 10,585
Aug-23 8,638 8,744 8,498 8,714 8,556 8,606 50 4,390 12,220
Sep-23 8,694 8,700 8,480 8,700 8,536 8,602 66 94 221
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322