About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 19
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sep 19, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 15, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/15/2022 09/08/2022 09/16/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,414 6,550
CORN 549,354 474,388 403,422 1,147,097 622,041
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 100 0 6,486 200
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 8,565 46,513 9,207 56,372 15,050
SOYBEANS 518,743 341,713 279,572 912,755 503,820
SUNFLOWER 0 384 0 384 0
WHEAT 790,145 757,804 567,522 7,211,633 7,751,236
Total 1,866,807 1,620,902 1,259,723 9,336,141 8,898,921
————————————————————————-

Crop Progress
Date 18-Sep 11-Sep 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 59 49 46 51
Cotton Harvested 11 8 8 11
Corn Dented 87 77 92 88
Corn Mature 40 25 54 45
Corn Harvested 7 5 9 8
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 42 22 55 47
Soybeans Harvested 3 5 5
Sorghum Coloring 85 74 91 88
Sorghum Mature 44 36 49 44
Sorghum Harvested 23 20 21 23
Peanuts Harvested 2 2 3
Rice Harvested 45 34 49 51
Winter Wheat Planted 21 10 20 17
Winter Wheat Emerged 2 3 2
Spring Wheat Harvested 94 85 100 94
Barley Harvested 94 91 99 96

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 17 22 28 29 4
Cotton Last Week 15 22 30 29 4
Cotton Last Year 1 7 28 51 13

Corn This Week 9 12 27 41 11
Corn Last Week 9 11 27 41 12
Corn Last Year 5 10 28 45 14

Soybeans This Week 5 10 30 46 9
Soybeans Last Week 5 10 29 45 11
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 28 47 11

Sorghum This Week 18 29 33 19 1
Sorghum Last Week 17 29 34 19 1
Sorghum Last Year 4 11 29 46 10

Rice This Week 1 3 24 57 15
Rice Last Week 1 3 24 58 14
Rice Last Year 1 2 21 61 15

Peanuts This Week 1 5 26 58 10
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 25 59 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 2 20 65 12

Pastures and Ranges This Week 20 23 29 23 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 19 22 30 24 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 23 23 30 21 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on demand concerns. No one is sure what will happen to exports from Ukraine and Russia but ideas are that they will both export aggressively. USDA world supply and demand estimates showed a lot more Ukrainian and Russian Wheat production. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 819, 810, and 791 December, with resistance at 866, 885, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 893, 865, and 858 December, with resistance at 959, 1010, and 1043 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 92007 880, and 858 December, and resistance is at 955, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower last week on ideas of good harvest progress and not much demand. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1739, 1723 and 1687 November and resistance is at 1767, 1794, and 1808 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher in consolidation trading. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week although Crude Oil moved higher. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 668, 659, and 654 December, and resistance is at 690, 699, and 701 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 389, 373, and 370 December, and resistance is at 410, 418, and 422 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as China bought and the trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1432, 1422, and 1390 November, and resistance is at 1476, 1509, and 1523 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 425.00, 419.00, and 417.00 October, and resistance is at 439.00 441.00, and 445.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6750, 6500, and 6400 October, with resistance at 7000, 7040, and 7170 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS reported a big increase in demand in its reports released earlier in the week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was lower yesterday and as the Canola harvest approaches. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 778.00, 766.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3400, and 3280 December, with resistance at 3960, 4020, and 4180 December.

DJ Malaysia’s Sept. 1-20 Palm-Oil Exports Rose 39.35%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Sept. 1-20 period are estimated to have risen 39.35% on month to 866,984 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate: (All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-20 Aug. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 328,498 192,652
RBD Palm Oil 94,518 52,362
RBD Palm Stearin 98,009 62,725
Crude Palm Oil 126,975 125,615
Total* 866,984 622,180
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

October
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

November
144 Dec
220 Dec
160 Dec
189 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 779.50 -13.00 Nov 2022 up 4.10
Track Thunder Bay 816.60 30.00 Nov 2022 dn 5.90
Track Vancouver 841.60 55.00 Nov 2022 dn 5.90

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 907.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 907.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 920.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 927.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 910.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 922.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 930.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 830.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 675.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3750.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 302.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.556)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 103,681 lots, or .61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,918 5,954 5,885 5,942 5,916 5,922 6 76,419 90,502
Jan-23 5,820 5,835 5,786 5,830 5,808 5,814 6 18,894 48,589
Mar-23 5,715 5,725 5,685 5,712 5,712 5,708 -4 8,196 16,050
May-23 5,714 5,725 5,682 5,717 5,710 5,712 2 168 2,531
Jul-23 5,669 5,677 5,669 5,677 5,676 5,673 -3 2 323
Sep-23 5,629 5,639 5,629 5,639 5,669 5,634 -35 2 12
Corn
Turnover: 457,868 lots, or 1.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,814 2,822 2,787 2,809 2,819 2,805 -14 93,027 248,005
Jan-23 2,841 2,848 2,816 2,834 2,844 2,832 -12 322,807 789,741
Mar-23 2,863 2,866 2,838 2,854 2,867 2,851 -16 14,846 192,009
May-23 2,905 2,911 2,886 2,900 2,906 2,898 -8 21,276 89,289
Jul-23 2,914 2,922 2,901 2,914 2,916 2,910 -6 4,989 40,695
Sep-23 2,925 2,930 2,915 2,919 2,923 2,922 -1 923 1,247
Soymeal
Turnover: 951,556 lots, or 38.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,430 4,540 4,428 4,509 4,446 4,493 47 85,261 216,503
Dec-22 4,170 4,248 4,165 4,227 4,176 4,214 38 29,684 123,208
Jan-23 3,993 4,033 3,979 4,011 3,996 4,008 12 722,706 1,463,146
Mar-23 3,855 3,901 3,848 3,878 3,864 3,876 12 17,077 54,726
May-23 3,708 3,744 3,701 3,720 3,712 3,724 12 76,114 226,550
Jul-23 3,683 3,715 3,675 3,696 3,688 3,697 9 14,147 15,432
Aug-23 3,716 3,746 3,705 3,727 3,721 3,727 6 5,315 8,046
Sep-23 3,688 3,725 3,683 3,704 3,701 3,705 4 1,252 2,148
Palm Oil
Turnover: 967,213 lots, or 74.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 8,036 8,068 7,832 7,912 8,112 7,966 -146 4,555 3,264
Nov-22 7,884 7,932 7,768 7,812 8,036 7,824 -212 12,987 73,437
Dec-22 7,798 7,846 7,676 7,730 7,954 7,734 -220 7,422 54,276
Jan-23 7,770 7,770 7,584 7,638 7,884 7,644 -240 883,140 423,637
Feb-23 7,686 7,774 7,608 7,650 7,902 7,670 -232 7,757 29,511
Mar-23 7,762 7,788 7,624 7,668 7,900 7,694 -206 2,756 15,515
Apr-23 7,776 7,800 7,638 7,678 7,916 7,696 -220 10,297 15,176
May-23 7,752 7,812 7,652 7,678 7,928 7,706 -222 38,239 46,776
Jun-23 – – – 7,690 7,840 7,690 -150 0 53
Jul-23 7,714 7,714 7,630 7,636 7,808 7,656 -152 8 127
Aug-23 7,724 7,724 7,626 7,638 7,802 7,654 -148 4 20
Sep-23 7,690 7,730 7,620 7,620 7,886 7,660 -226 48 57
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 746,594 lots, or 67.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,578 9,696 9,480 9,692 9,702 9,588 -114 17,390 67,869
Dec-22 9,324 9,410 9,230 9,386 9,460 9,320 -140 8,668 70,331
Jan-23 9,094 9,130 8,952 9,092 9,202 9,042 -160 681,324 457,214
Mar-23 8,710 8,742 8,600 8,704 8,846 8,674 -172 3,208 36,041
May-23 8,688 8,742 8,602 8,692 8,840 8,668 -172 29,148 46,739
Jul-23 8,680 8,682 8,480 8,628 8,774 8,616 -158 2,865 10,668
Aug-23 8,624 8,632 8,494 8,586 8,712 8,556 -156 3,845 11,761
Sep-23 8,588 8,600 8,468 8,568 8,668 8,536 -132 146 230
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322