About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower on Friday and for the week. Price trends turned down on Friday when futures broke through some short term support areas. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. USDA showed good but not great sales over the last few weeks when the data was finally updated on Thursday. The late season weather in the Great Plains was better and the crop showed improvement. An increase in export volumes was noted by USDA because of the increased production, but the supply increase was bigger than the demand increase and ending stocks estimates increased. The harvest is coming and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 101.88 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 9670 December. Support is at 97.60, 95.70, and 93.00 December, with resistance of 102.00, 106.00 and 108.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 290,812
: Positions :
: 43,124 26,552 75,544 74,954 167,676 80,940 11,762 274,563 281,534: 16,249 9,278
: Changes from: September 6, 2022 (Change in open interest: -422) :
: -2,866 -53 1,112 1,857 -1,801 -427 -128 -323 -870: -99 448
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 9.1 26.0 25.8 57.7 27.8 4.0 94.4 96.8: 5.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 57 92 55 67 50 17 238 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week but the daily charts show that a rally is possible this week. USDA last Monday issued a lower production estimate for California oranges, but California oranges are mostly used for fresh consumption and not for juice. USDA increased the Florida production estimate to 41.1 million boxes, from 41.0 million last month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. It has been dry recently in Sao Paulo but apparently not dry enough to affect the trees or fruit all that much. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil but showers are expected to develop over the next couple of weeks. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 169.00, 167.00, and 165.00 November, with resistance at 177.00, 178.00, and 182.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,040 :
: Positions :
: 1,283 8,412 2,632 0 0 3,089 310 96 790 529 1,064 :
: Changes from: September 6, 2022 :
: -88 -515 -65 0 0 -249 74 -3 111 -18 41 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 76.2 23.8 0.0 0.0 28.0 2.8 0.9 7.2 4.8 9.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 10 11 6 0 0 21 . 4 7 8 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Sep 19
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
9/3/2022 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/3/2022 9/4/2021 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 142.30 240.08 -40.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.29 5.51 14.1%
Total 148.59 245.59 -39.5%
Pack
Bulk 0.96 0.38 155.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.63 1.35 20.2%
Total Pack 2.59 1.73 49.7%
Reprocessed -2.59 -1.73 49.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC

Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.15 -0.11 39.0%
Imports – Foreign 0.00 0.25 -100.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.02 0.00 NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.07 -54.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 140.57 238.93 -41.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.92 6.87 15.3%
Total 148.49 245.80 -39.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.87 4.33 12.4%
Exports 0.10 0.41 -75.4%
Total (Bulk) 4.97 4.74 4.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.40 1.19 17.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.40 1.19 17.4%
Total Movement 6.37 5.93 7.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 135.60 234.20 -42.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.52 5.67 14.8%
Ending Inventory 142.12 239.87 -40.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
3-Sep-22 4-Sep-21 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Pack
Bulk 82.16 75.70 8.5%
Retail/Institutional 59.12 51.93 13.9%
Total Pack 141.28 127.63 10.7%
Reprocessed -120.97 -97.40 24.2%
Pack from Fruit 20.31 30.23 -32.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.66 -1.02 161.8%
Imports – Foreign 181.54 186.46 -2.6%
Domestic Receipts 4.56 15.40 -70.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.06 1.28 -17.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 4.52 6.58 -31.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 3.73 3.33 11.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 380.58 444.43 -14.4%
Retail/Institutional 65.20 57.49 13.4%
Total 445.78 501.91 -11.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 225.75 189.14 19.4%
Domestic 19.23 21.09 -8.9%
Exports 244.98 210.23 16.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 58.36 51.81 12.6%
Exports 0.32 0.00 NA
Total (Retail/Inst) 58.69 51.81 13.3%
Total Movement 303.67 262.04 15.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 135.60 234.20 -42.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.52 5.67 14.8%
Ending Inventory 142.12 239.87 -40.8%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week as the US Dollar worked higher and offers in the cash market increased. Better offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. Robusta shipments were down sharply and overall Coffee exports were less. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region for this weekend. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are mostly above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.532 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.450 million bagds, from 6.223 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 198.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 27 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,520 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 206.00 December. Support is at 210.00, 205.00, and 202.00 December, and resistance is at 217.00, 221.00 and 223.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 November. Support is at 2170, 2150, and 2100 November, and resistance is at 2230, 2270, and 2300 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 245,601
: Positions :
: 34,763 10,817 67,823 75,303 145,819 57,858 13,375 235,747 237,833: 9,854 7,768
: Changes from: September 6, 2022 (Change in open interest: -1,688) :
: -4,125 681 -2,414 4,736 -843 254 1,066 -1,549 -1,510: -139 -178
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 4.4 27.6 30.7 59.4 23.6 5.4 96.0 96.8: 4.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 68 110 108 118 51 23 328 280:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/13/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
130,911 61,211 86,147 1,533 10,106 3,487
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.8% 65.8% 1.2% 7.7% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 36 43 8 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,506 3,253 5,992 5,964 2,095 15,726
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.3% 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 1.6% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 9 11 15 8 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,492 4,105
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week and the London market had a reversal down on the weekly charts. Reports from UNICA indicated increased cane processing and increased Sugar in the production mix at the expense of Ethanol. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year and are not selling White Sugar. The government is expected to announce a first tranche of 5.0 million tons for the export market in the next few days.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1760, 1740, and 1710 March. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1790, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 410.00 and 485.00 December. Support is at 527.00, 520.00, and 517.00 December and resistance is at 534.00, 543.00, and 548.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 902,761
: Positions :
: 83,847 101,379 184,345 318,051 491,929 245,441 65,883 831,683 843,535: 71,078 59,226
: Changes from: September 6, 2022 (Change in open interest: -10,614) :
: 6,843 -5,797 -20,745 -6,092 10,726 5,233 8,160 -14,761 -7,656: 4,147 -2,958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 11.2 20.4 35.2 54.5 27.2 7.3 92.1 93.4: 7.9 6.6
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 60 79 74 74 38 21 218 198:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/13/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
86,286 29,330 69,803 6,524 4,331 2,446
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.0% 80.9% 7.6% 5.0% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
117 35 35 5 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,372 1,346 4,329 1,792 523 1,095
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
38.7% 1.6% 5.0% 2.1% 0.6% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 3 20 6 2 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,398 2,413
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.6% 2.8%

COCOA
General Comments: New York was a little lower and London was higher and turned trends to up on the daily charts. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Trends are mixed in New York. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 59,000 tons, up 9.2% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.658 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,695 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2250 December, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are mixed to u[p with objectives of 1880 and 1920 December. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1880, 1900, and 1930 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 357,833
: Positions :
: 55,879 82,549 85,616 139,141 139,923 61,749 38,797 342,385 346,885: 15,449 10,949
: Changes from: September 6, 2022 (Change in open interest: 10,625) :
: 4,214 12,696 451 2,329 -5,888 2,118 3,030 9,112 10,288: 1,514 337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 23.1 23.9 38.9 39.1 17.3 10.8 95.7 96.9: 4.3 3.1
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 75 67 56 36 31 21 203 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/13/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
276,159 140,448 186,542 35,384 21,941 13,715
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 50.9% 67.5% 12.8% 7.9% 5.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 49 48 15 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,300 12,649 10,894 8,909 3,074 24,578
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.2% 4.6% 3.9% 3.2% 1.1% 8.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 17 16 11 13 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,931 2,766
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322