About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and closed on a weak note on strength in the US Dollar as no one is sure what will happen to exports from Ukraine and Russia. USDA world supply and demand estimates that showed a lot more Ukrainian and Russian Wheat production. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports and this could become a problem. For now, though, the world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry due to increased production estimates released by USDA on Monday. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 819, 810, and 791 December, with resistance at 885, 913, and 917 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 913, 893, and 865 December, with resistance at 959, 1010, and 1043 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 920, 907, and 880 December, and resistance is at 955, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday on some follow through buying. The USDA reports showed smaller production and ending stocks estimates. Demand for Rough Rice was cut hard, but demand for Milled Rice held together in the latest estimates. News that India will restrict exports of some grades of Rice also supported futures. Brokens cannot be exported and export taxes on White and Brown Rice are now 20%. Parboiled and Basmati exports are permitted with no restrictions or additional costs. Wire reports suggest that Indian Rice exports could be cut by 25% to 50% by the moves. The move follows a drought that hurt Rice production and the government is apparently afraid of a lot of food inflation hitting the people. Any move by India to restrict exports can be bullish as India is far and away the cheapest seller of Rice into the world market. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1763, 1759 and 1739 November and resistance is at 1794, 1808, and 1834 November.
Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1763, 1759 and 1739 November and resistance is at 1794, 1808, and 1834 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday as USDA caught up with weekly export sales reports and the Corn sales were not exciting to anyone. USDA cut production about as expected but cut demand even more for a higher than expected ending stocks estimate. The report was considered neutral by the trade, but the demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week as Crude Oil moved lower. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 675, 659, and 654 December, and resistance is at 690, 699, and 701 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 389, 373, and 370 December, and resistance is at 410, 418, and 422 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the weekly export sales reports showed strong new crop sales but as the US Dollar moved higher. USDA on Monday showed less yield and planted and harvested area than trade expectations and estimated production much less than the trade had expected. Demand was cut back some, but the overall effect of the estimates was ending stocks at just 200 million bushels for the coming year instead of 240 as estimated by the trade. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1432, and 1422 November, and resistance is at 1476, 1509, and 1523 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 457.00 October. Support is at 426.00, 419.00, and 417.00 October, and resistance is at 439.00 441.00, and 445.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6500, 6400, and 6290 October, with resistance at 6800, 7000, and 7040 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today for a holiday. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was a little lower on the price action in Chicago and as the Canola harvest approaches. The Canola growing conditions are much improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 779.00, 766.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3520, and 3400 December, with resistance at 3960, 4020, and 4180 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

October
145 Dec
230 Dec
165 Dec
205 Nov

November
144 Dec
220 Dec
160 Dec
189 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 784.70 -13.00 Nov. 2022 dn 3.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 818.40 30.00 Nov. 2022 dn 9.30
Basis: Vancouver 843.40 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 9.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,793 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,880 5,920 5,864 5,883 5,868 5,891 23 78,417 87,164
Jan-23 5,797 5,819 5,780 5,799 5,774 5,801 27 29,749 44,502
Mar-23 5,687 5,714 5,678 5,697 5,676 5,695 19 9,405 15,073
May-23 5,699 5,708 5,680 5,702 5,682 5,696 14 202 2,475
Jul-23 5,679 5,679 5,646 5,665 5,647 5,661 14 7 320
Sep-23 5,650 5,653 5,641 5,653 5,647 5,647 0 13 11
Corn
Turnover: 372,181 lots, or 10.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,813 2,824 2,806 2,813 2,807 2,813 6 67,906 255,427
Jan-23 2,835 2,849 2,829 2,835 2,832 2,837 5 260,290 806,996
Mar-23 2,858 2,868 2,853 2,860 2,853 2,859 6 20,961 189,603
May-23 2,890 2,901 2,886 2,893 2,893 2,894 1 18,514 77,329
Jul-23 2,899 2,912 2,898 2,907 2,906 2,905 -1 3,811 39,105
Sep-23 2,900 2,918 2,895 2,915 2,906 2,913 7 699 496
Soymeal
Turnover: 757,762 lots, or 30.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,450 4,466 4,417 4,442 4,459 4,438 -21 43,363 219,809
Dec-22 4,168 4,192 4,153 4,185 4,187 4,173 -14 14,170 120,961
Jan-23 3,981 4,012 3,969 3,999 3,997 3,992 -5 603,105 1,446,981
Mar-23 3,857 3,876 3,833 3,868 3,857 3,855 -2 14,213 53,140
May-23 3,705 3,732 3,696 3,719 3,717 3,716 -1 67,182 214,670
Jul-23 3,670 3,699 3,661 3,699 3,674 3,682 8 8,004 13,895
Aug-23 3,674 3,735 3,665 3,724 3,674 3,705 31 5,125 8,221
Sep-23 3,660 3,710 3,660 3,695 3,674 3,687 13 2,600 1,393
Palm Oil
Turnover: 711,572 lots, or 55.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-22 8,148 8,202 8,034 8,090 8,244 8,142 -102 10,885 8,934
Nov-22 8,008 8,052 7,876 7,944 8,100 7,972 -128 9,832 74,373
Dec-22 7,976 7,978 7,806 7,860 8,046 7,892 -154 6,363 53,025
Jan-23 7,846 7,898 7,718 7,782 7,944 7,814 -130 646,057 425,352
Feb-23 7,860 7,906 7,738 7,798 7,936 7,830 -106 6,450 28,120
Mar-23 7,880 7,914 7,754 7,810 7,982 7,842 -140 5,013 14,690
Apr-23 7,884 7,940 7,768 7,814 7,972 7,836 -136 3,468 10,681
May-23 7,900 7,950 7,776 7,832 7,984 7,860 -124 23,461 43,724
Jun-23 – – – 7,840 7,916 7,840 -76 0 53
Jul-23 7,854 7,854 7,750 7,750 7,974 7,810 -164 6 121
Aug-23 7,810 7,870 7,746 7,814 7,900 7,802 -98 13 20
Sep-23 7,818 7,906 7,730 7,798 7,900 7,800 -100 24 15
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 650,456 lots, or 59.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,764 9,784 9,598 9,656 9,852 9,698 -154 14,897 71,713
Dec-22 9,520 9,544 9,362 9,418 9,592 9,456 -136 6,341 69,441
Jan-23 9,238 9,268 9,102 9,170 9,354 9,184 -170 588,209 446,660
Mar-23 8,896 8,896 8,766 8,826 8,980 8,816 -164 3,919 35,856
May-23 8,840 8,878 8,760 8,824 8,962 8,822 -140 29,019 44,024
Jul-23 8,828 8,828 8,702 8,762 8,878 8,756 -122 3,543 10,526
Aug-23 8,760 8,760 8,632 8,692 8,794 8,686 -108 4,417 10,908
Sep-23 8,700 8,752 8,600 8,672 8,794 8,656 -138 111 47
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322