About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ULTRA 10-YEAR U S TREASURY NOTE FUT September Sep 15, 2022 8,474 Aug 23, 2022
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 15, 2022 27 Aug 30, 2022
ROUGH RICE September Sep 15, 2022 6 Sep 13, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 15, 2022 30 Sep 13, 2022

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report – Sep 14
WINNIPEG – Canada 2022-23 grain/oilseed production estimates. The results
were compiled using model-based data. Source: Statistics Canada.
Production in thousand metric tons, yield in kg/hectare, area harvested in
thousand hectares.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2022-23 2022-23 2021-22
SEP AUG FINAL
barley 2,561.8 3,680 9,427.8 9,345.9 6,958.6
edible beans 112.9 2,698 304.6 276.3 385.9
canaryseed 106.6 1,472 156.9 140.3 128.8
canola 8,580.2 2,226 19,099.0 19,498.5 13,757.4
chickpeas 91.7 1,709 156.7 133.8 76.2
corn 1,440.7 10,315 14,861.4 14,824.6 13,983.9
faba beans N/A N/A N/A N/A 72.9
flaxseed 303.1 1,535 465.2 487.7 345.7
lentils 1,723.7 1,611 2,777.3 2,906.2 1,606.4
mixed grains 47.2 2,629 124.1 N/A 164.0
mustard 213.5 828 176.8 195.7 60.5
oats 1,300.7 3,578 4,654.0 4,470.7 2,808.1
dry peas 1,328.3 2,699 3,585.7 3,610.1 2,257.8
fall rye* 143.2 3,284 470.3 447.5 472.8
soybeans 2,096.5 3,103 6,505.4 6,381.8 6,271.8
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,402.2
sunflower seed 32.9 2,071 68.1 62.0 81.7
triticale N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.1
all wheat 10,058.6 3,450 34,702.5 34,572.0 22,296.1
durum wheat 2,371.5 2,580 6,117.5 6,472.7 3,038.3
spring wheat 7,219.2 3,609 26,053.0 25,564.9 16,250.4
winter wheat* 467.9 5,411 2,532.0 2,534.4 3,007.4
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections Exported by Rail – Sep 14
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED SEP 14, 2022 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING AUGUST 2022
————————————————————————
Aug-22 Jul-22 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 105 10,478 0 86,217
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 13 1,297 2,295 6,186
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 0 0 200 200
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 299
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 798 798
CANOLA 0 0 0 100
CORN WHITE 2 200 13,673 130,126
CORN YELLOW 5,517 550,543 600,937 5,508,632
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 798
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100
OATS 0 0 0 500
SORGHUM 0 0 0 9,580
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 2,655 264,942 292,787 R 2,379,414
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 100
WHEAT DU 10 998 0 998
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 382 38,121 68,058 362,253
WHEAT HRW 1,874 187,012 129,829 R 1,227,636
WHEAT SRW 280 27,942 58,076 318,942
WHEAT SWW 213 21,256 100 23,051
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 798
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher in recovery trading yesterday. USDA world supply and demand estimates that showed a lot more Ukrainian and Russian Wheat production. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports and this could become a problem. For now, though, the world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry due to increased production estimates released by USDA on Monday. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 876 December. Support is at 849, 819, and 810 December, with resistance at 913, 917, and 954 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 915, 893, and 865 December, with resistance at 959, 1010, and 1043 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 908, 880, and 863 December, and resistance is at 945, 95a5, and 959 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on some follow through buying tied to the bullish USDA production and supply and demand estimates. The reports showed smaller production and ending stocks estimates. Demand for Rough Rice was cut hard, but demand for Milled Rice held together in the latest estimates. News that India will restrict exports of some grades of Rice also supported futures although this was now called old news. Brokens cannot be exported and export taxes on White and Brown Rice are now 20%. Parboiled and Basmati exports are permitted with no restrictions or additional costs. Wire reports suggest that Indian Rice exports could be cut in half by the moves. The move follows a drought that hurt Rice production and the government is apparently afraid of a lot of food inflation hitting the people. Any move by India to restrict exports can be bullish as India is far and away the cheapest seller of Rice into the world market. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand remains a big question with the domestic market reported to be quiet and with no export sales information yet from USDA.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1759, 1739 and 1723 November and resistance is at 1795, 1834, and 1848 November.

India’s rice export curbs paralyse trade in Asia as prices rise
12-Sep-2022 05:02:26 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
• Indian traders have stopped signing new export deals
• Traders in Vietnam, Thailand hold off sales, assess disruptions
• Rival suppliers expect prices to rally in coming months
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI, Sept 12 (Reuters) – India’s restrictions on rice exports have paralysed trading in Asia, with buyers scouring for alternative supplies from Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar where seller are holding off on deals as prices rise, industry officials said.
India, the world’s biggest exporter of the grain, banned shipments of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various other types on Thursday as the country tries to boost supplies and calm prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting. (Full Story)
Rice is the latest in a string of commodities that have faced export curbs this year as governments struggled to raise supplies and fight inflation amid trade disruptions triggered by the Ukraine war. Rice prices have jumped 5% in Asia since India’s announcement and are expected to rise further this week keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines. (Full Story)
“Rice trading is paralysed across Asia. Traders don’t want to commit anything in a hurry,” said Himanshu Agarwal, executive director at Satyam Balajee, India’s biggest rice exporter.
“India accounts for more than 40% of global shipments. So, nobody is sure how much prices will rise in the coming months.”
Rice is a staple for more than 3 billion people, and when India banned exports in 2007, global prices shot to record highs of around $1,000 per tonne.
India’s rice exports reached a record 21.5 million tonnes in 2021, more than the combined shipments of the world’s next four biggest exporters of the grain: Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.
LOADINGS HALTED
Rice loading has stopped at Indian ports and nearly one million tonnes of grain are trapped there as buyers refuse to pay the government’s new 20% export levy on top of the agreed contract price. (Full Story)
Though there are some buyers ready to pay higher prices for new contracts, shippers are currently sorting out pending contracts, Nitin Gupta, vice president for Olam India’s rice business.
As Indian exporters stopped signing new contracts, buyers are trying to secure supplies from rival Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar, which have raised the price of 5% broken white rice by around $20 per tonne in the past four days, dealers said.
But even these suppliers are reluctant to rush for contracts as they are expecting prices to strengthen.
“We expect prices to rise further over the coming weeks,” a trader based in Ho Chi Minh City said.
Vietnam’s 5% broken rice RI-VNBKN5-P1 was offered at $410 per tonne on Monday, up from $390-$393 per tonne last week, traders said.
China, the Philippines, Bangladesh and African countries such as Senegal, Benin, Nigeria and Ghana are among leading importers of common grade rice, while Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia import premium grade basmati rice.
Supply disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and more recently the Russia-Ukraine war has jacked up the prices of grains but rice has largely bucked the trend due to bumper crops and ample inventories at exporters over the past two years.
Buyers now fear India’s move could boost rice prices and make the staple expensive like wheat and corn, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Additional reporting by Khanh Vu in Hanoi; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
(( rajendra.jadhav@thomsonreuters.com ; +91-22-68414378 ; Reuters Messaging: rajendra.jadhav.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 14
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.20 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.89 9.90 0.00
Brokens 8.84 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday in correction trading from the Monday rally. USDA cut production about as expected but cut demand even more for a higher than expected ending stocks estimate. The report was considered neutral by the trade, but the demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week as Crude Oil moved lower. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 714 December. Support is at 688, 683, and 675 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 389, 373, and 370 December, and resistance is at 410, 418, and 422 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday but Soybean Oil closed higher in correction trading. USDA on Monday showed less yield and planted and harvested area than trade expectations and estimated production much less than the trade had expected. Demand was cut back some, but the overall effect of the estimates was ending stocks at just 200 million bushels for the coming year instead of 240 as estimated by the trade. Traders were caught leaning to a bearish report and had to buy out of positions. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. There are reports that Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1527, 1534, and 1648 November. Support is at 1465, 1461, and 1452 November, and resistance is at 1509, 1523, and 1557 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 457.00 October. Support is at 428.00, 419.00, and 417.00 October, and resistance is at 441.00 445.00, and 452.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7060 October. Support is at 6800, 6500, and 6400 October, with resistance at 7040, 7130, and 7470 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today on Chicago price action and unexpectedly strong exports. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was a little higher with the weaker Canadian Dollar as the Canola harvest approaches. The Canola growing conditions are much improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 795.00, 779.00, and 7566.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3860 and 4230 November. Support is at 3670, 3480, and 3400 November, with resistance at 4000, 4030, and 4340 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 780.70 -19.00 Nov. 2022 up 28.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 831.40 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 30.20
Basis: Vancouver 856.40 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 30.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 932.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 937.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 952.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 967.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 935.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 940.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 955.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 970.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 690.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3800.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 305.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5255)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 144,924 lots, or 8.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,851 5,988 5,851 5,988 5,998 5,857 -141 21 21
Nov-22 5,860 5,885 5,822 5,857 5,852 5,859 7 99,005 81,960
Jan-23 5,801 5,807 5,735 5,783 5,757 5,774 17 32,313 43,767
Mar-23 5,713 5,713 5,633 5,684 5,665 5,668 3 13,213 13,144
May-23 5,713 5,713 5,641 5,684 5,672 5,690 18 326 2,323
Jul-23 5,664 5,664 5,620 5,630 5,624 5,630 6 46 322
Corn
Turnover: 290,059 lots, or 8.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,770 2,775 2,766 2,775 2,770 2,771 1 754 4,499
Nov-22 2,814 2,818 2,806 2,816 2,814 2,812 -2 64,675 266,917
Jan-23 2,839 2,842 2,829 2,839 2,838 2,835 -3 189,918 828,137
Mar-23 2,852 2,865 2,848 2,865 2,857 2,856 -1 19,183 182,116
May-23 2,900 2,909 2,892 2,903 2,899 2,900 1 11,457 65,749
Jul-23 2,912 2,919 2,906 2,917 2,910 2,912 2 4,072 37,821
Soymeal
Turnover: 882,372 lots, or 35.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,967 5,030 4,900 4,970 4,949 4,987 38 208 2,099
Nov-22 4,527 4,559 4,512 4,532 4,524 4,535 11 49,100 234,347
Dec-22 4,265 4,285 4,240 4,252 4,257 4,264 7 16,135 120,541
Jan-23 4,043 4,070 4,027 4,042 4,048 4,049 1 702,601 1,483,377
Mar-23 3,892 3,911 3,868 3,899 3,883 3,892 9 10,526 52,006
May-23 3,741 3,759 3,717 3,747 3,731 3,744 13 92,014 192,323
Jul-23 3,700 3,716 3,666 3,710 3,694 3,697 3 8,836 13,140
Aug-23 3,709 3,721 3,681 3,706 3,718 3,704 -14 2,952 8,272
Palm Oil
Turnover: 801,683 lots, or 63.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,056 8,196 7,956 8,196 8,244 8,090 -154 105 804
Oct-22 8,236 8,302 8,158 8,204 8,190 8,236 46 11,257 17,945
Nov-22 8,134 8,202 8,050 8,102 8,094 8,132 38 15,608 76,176
Dec-22 8,076 8,132 7,978 8,026 8,018 8,064 46 7,311 51,406
Jan-23 7,922 8,046 7,890 7,944 7,922 7,968 46 724,110 406,238
Feb-23 7,920 8,040 7,894 7,938 7,920 7,968 48 5,132 26,982
Mar-23 7,978 8,050 7,906 7,956 7,928 7,982 54 4,868 13,413
Apr-23 7,964 8,056 7,914 7,976 7,926 7,986 60 2,485 9,307
May-23 7,998 8,068 7,930 7,994 7,948 7,996 48 30,797 37,488
Jun-23 – – – 7,916 7,812 7,916 104 0 53
Jul-23 7,898 7,986 7,898 7,950 7,882 7,938 56 8 118
Aug-23 7,912 7,912 7,890 7,890 7,880 7,900 20 2 24
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 606,153 lots, or 56.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 – – – 9,922 9,922 9,922 0 0 2,425
Nov-22 9,936 9,970 9,882 9,910 9,934 9,926 -8 12,583 72,556
Dec-22 9,678 9,714 9,608 9,660 9,674 9,666 -8 8,639 67,121
Jan-23 9,420 9,470 9,340 9,404 9,420 9,406 -14 540,356 417,060
Mar-23 8,982 9,012 8,914 8,988 8,972 8,972 0 3,898 35,369
May-23 8,980 8,982 8,878 8,954 8,920 8,936 16 33,105 37,731
Jul-23 8,838 8,890 8,796 8,880 8,836 8,852 16 2,805 9,836
Aug-23 8,772 8,820 8,726 8,810 8,778 8,786 8 4,767 8,996
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322