About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep 14, 2022 7 Sep 12, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 14, 2022 38 Sep 12, 2022

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2022 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Production 13,944.0 14,077 13,895-14,233 14,359
Soybean Production 4,378.0 4,481 4,334-4,535 4,531
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Yield 172.5 172.4 170.6-174.0 175.4
Soybean Yield 50.5 51.5 50.7-52.00 51.9
****
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2021-22
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 1,525 1,537 1,448-1,580 1,530
Soybeans 240 233 215-250 225
2022-23
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 1,219 1,180 980-1,300 1,388
Soybeans 200 240 203-323 245
Wheat 610 622 594-653 610
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 312.1 312.1 311.0-313.0 311.8
Soybeans 89.7 89.9 89.1-90.2 89.7
Wheat 275.7 276.4 275.0-278.0 276.4
2022-23
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 304.5 301.8 296.9-305.6 306.7
Soybeans 98.9 101.1 98.2-102.1 101.4
Wheat 268.6 267.6 263.6-270.7 267.3

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Sep 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21
Soybeans 200.0 240.0 257.0:167.88 153.36 164.86:389.77 353.24 368.44
Brazil na na na: 89.00 80.00 81.65:149.00 126.00 139.50
Argentina na na na: 4.70 2.25 5.20: 51.00 44.00 46.20
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.07: 18.40 16.40 19.60
Soyoil 1,826 2,151 2,131: 12.97 12.31 12.61: 61.44 59.20 59.23
Corn 1,219 1,525 1,235:183.58 203.26 182.60: 1,173 1,220 1,129
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.00:274.00 272.55 260.67
Argentina na na na: 41.00 39.00 40.94: 55.00 53.00 52.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.70 3.20 3.73: 17.30 16.30 16.95
Cotton(a) 2.70 3.75 3.15: 44.58 43.07 48.53:118.45 115.71 111.37
All Wheat 610 660 845:208.89 203.17 203.40:783.92 779.90 774.53
China na na na: 0.90 0.88 0.76:138.00 136.95 134.25
European
Union na na na: 33.50 31.90 29.74:132.10 138.29 126.69
Canada na na na: 26.00 15.00 26.43: 35.00 22.30 35.44
Argentina na na na: 13.00 16.50 11.53: 19.00 22.50 17.64
Australia na na na: 25.00 27.50 23.85: 33.00 36.35 31.92
Russia na na na: 42.00 33.00 39.10: 91.00 75.16 85.35
Ukraine na na na: 11.00 18.84 16.85: 20.50 33.01 25.42
Sorghum 20.0 53.0 20.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 47.0 42.0 71.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 32.0 33.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 30.9 39.7 43.7: 53.61 54.75 50.92:507.99 515.08 509.26

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 12
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sep 12, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 08, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/08/2022 09/01/2022 09/09/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 200 0 1,414 6,550
CORN 446,620 531,667 179,166 558,699 218,619
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 100 6,486 200
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 46,513 58,242 4,526 47,807 5,843
SOYBEANS 329,225 500,286 193,894 381,524 224,248
SUNFLOWER 384 192 0 384 0
WHEAT 736,515 538,329 567,438 6,399,999 7,183,714
Total 1,559,357 1,628,916 945,124 7,396,313 7,639,198
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 11-Sep 4-Sep 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 49 39 35 41
Cotton Harvested 8 4 8
Corn Dough 95 92 95 96
Corn Dented 77 63 85 79
Corn Mature 25 15 35 30
Corn Harvested 5 3 4
Soybeans Setting Pods 97 94 96 98
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 22 18 35 28
Sorghum Headed 96 92 99 99
Sorghum Coloring 74 62 82 78
Sorghum Mature 36 28 38 35
Sorghum Harvested 23 20 21 23
Peanuts Harvested 2 2 3
Rice Harvested 34 24 38 39
Oats Harvested 95 90 97 95
Winter Wheat Planted 10 3 11 7
Spring Wheat Harvested 85 71 95 89
Barley Harvested 91 77 96 92

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 22 38 29 4
Cotton Last Week 15 16 34 30 5
Cotton Last Year 1 5 30 50 14

Corn This Week 9 11 27 41 12
Corn Last Week 8 11 27 43 11
Corn Last Year 5 10 27 44 14

Soybeans This Week 5 10 29 45 11
Soybeans Last Week 5 9 29 47 10
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 29 45 12

Sorghum This Week 17 29 34 19 1
Sorghum Last Week 17 28 34 20 1
Sorghum Last Year 4 10 29 47 10

Rice This Week 1 3 24 58 14
Rice Last Week 1 3 24 56 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 22 59 15

Peanuts This Week 1 5 26 58 10
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 25 59 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 2 20 65 12

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 22 30 24 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 19 23 30 23 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 20 22 33 21 4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in response to the USDA world supply and demand estimates that showed a lot more Ukrainian and Russian Wheat production. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports and this could become a problem. For now, though, the world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry. Russia says that Ukraine is selling too much to big western countries and not enough to developing nations. It has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there s no demand news to help support futures.. US demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until the middle of the Summer. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Russian Wheat prices have been going down in an effort to move the crop. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 876 December. Support is at 818, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 878, 913, and 954 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 952 and 975 December. Support is at 894, 865, and 858 December, with resistance at 945, 955, and 959 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 908, 880, and 863 December, and resistance is at 945, 95a5, and 959 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday in response to the bullish USDA production and supply and demand estimates. The reports showed smaller production and ending stocks estimates. Demand for Rough Rice was cut hard, but demand for Milled Rice held together in the latest estimates. News that India will restrict exports of some grades of Rice also supported futures although this was now called old news. Brokens cannot be exported and export taxes on White and Brown Rice is now 20%. Parboiled and Basmati exports are permitted with no restrictions or additional costs. Wire reports suggest that Indian Rice exports could be cut in half by the moves. The move follows a drought that hurt Rice production and the government is apparently afraid of a lot of food inflation hitting the people. Any move by India to restrict exports can be bullish as India is far and away the cheapest seller of Rice into the world market. The Texas harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand remains a big question with the domestic market reported to be quiet and with no export sales information yet from USDA.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1723, 1697, and 1685 November and resistance is at 1795, 1834, and 1848 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in sympathy with the big rally in Soybeans. USDA cut production about as ex[pected but cut demand even more for a higher than expected ending stocks estimate. The report was considered neutral by the trade, but the demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit last week as Crude Oil moved lower. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 714 December. Support is at 686, 675, and 659 December, and resistance is at 6701, 710, and 726 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 389, 373, and 370 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 425 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were sharply higher yesterday in response to the USDA estimates. USDA showed less yield and planted and harvested area than trade expectations and estimated production much less than the trade had expected. Demand was cut back some, but the overall effect of the estimates was ending stocks at just 200 million bushels for the coming year instead of 240 as estimated by the trade. Traders were caught leaning to a bearish report and had to buy out of positions. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. Newswires noted that Chinese Soybeans exports were down 25% last month and the USDA Attache in Beijing cut overall Chinese Soybeans demand estimates to just over 96 million tons. Support on Friday came primarily from a weaker US Dollar. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. There are reports that Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian were closed last week and might still be closed this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1518 November. Support is at 1461, 1440, and 1422 November, and resistance is at 142508, 14523, and 1557 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 434.00, 428.00, and 419.00 October, and resistance is at 440.00 441.00, and 447.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6290, and 6160 October, with resistance at 7040, 7130, and 7470 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today on Chicago price action and unexpectedly strong exports. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was higher with the big rally in Chicago as the Canola harvest approaches. The Canola growing conditions are much improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 746.00, 724.00, and 702.00 November. Support is at 781.00, 763.00, and 753.00 November, with resistance at 809.00, 818.00, and 833.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3480, 3400, and 3280 November, with resistance at 3720, 3840, and 4000 November.

DJ Malaysia’s August Palm Oil Exports 1.30M Tons; Down 1.9%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 1.9% on month at 1.30 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,725,781 1,573,560 Up 9.67%
Palm Oil Exports 1,299,654 1,325,342 Dn 1.94%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 101,674 76,689 Up 32.58%
Palm Oil Imports 145,452 130,615 Up 11.36%
Closing Stocks 2,094,667 1,772,804 Up 18.16%
Crude Palm Oil 1,025,961 905,946 Up 13.25%
Processed Palm Oil 1,068,706 866,858 Up 23.29%

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

\

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 12
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 752.20 -19.00 Nov. 2022 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 801.20 30.00 Nov. 2022 dn 28.50
Basis: Vancouver 826.20 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 28.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 942.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 947.50 — Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 957.50 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 +42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 945.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 950.00 — Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 960.00 —
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 +42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 875.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 690.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3900.00 +250.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 307.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.506)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 222,285 lots, or 12.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,998 6,002 5,998 5,998 5,914 5,998 84 22 22
Nov-22 5,738 5,929 5,725 5,893 5,696 5,852 156 151,397 85,694
Jan-23 5,655 5,829 5,650 5,815 5,622 5,757 135 48,912 43,822
Mar-23 5,599 5,725 5,587 5,713 5,542 5,665 123 20,642 13,598
May-23 5,595 5,730 5,595 5,721 5,547 5,672 125 1,173 2,175
Jul-23 5,591 5,680 5,591 5,680 5,530 5,624 94 139 355
Corn
Turnover: 361,460 lots, or 10.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,739 2,779 2,739 2,779 2,739 2,770 31 1,182 4,528
Nov-22 2,810 2,843 2,804 2,816 2,780 2,814 34 65,036 268,810
Jan-23 2,837 2,859 2,828 2,839 2,804 2,838 34 253,502 835,356
Mar-23 2,862 2,889 2,849 2,861 2,823 2,857 34 14,836 179,561
May-23 2,897 2,911 2,890 2,906 2,861 2,899 38 21,683 66,123
Jul-23 2,900 2,921 2,900 2,918 2,873 2,910 37 5,221 37,429
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,002,348 lots, or 40.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,812 4,955 4,812 4,955 4,713 4,949 236 26 2,307
Nov-22 4,597 4,600 4,493 4,537 4,316 4,524 208 78,828 237,098
Dec-22 4,218 4,319 4,218 4,270 4,048 4,257 209 19,905 121,191
Jan-23 4,060 4,079 4,024 4,060 3,839 4,048 209 763,947 1,469,391
Mar-23 3,862 3,910 3,860 3,902 3,687 3,883 196 15,483 51,613
May-23 3,751 3,758 3,709 3,751 3,537 3,731 194 108,161 176,638
Jul-23 3,641 3,724 3,641 3,702 3,513 3,694 181 10,089 12,835
Aug-23 3,685 3,748 3,685 3,717 3,545 3,718 173 5,909 8,173
Palm Oil
Turnover: 677,850 lots, or 53.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,280 8,280 8,280 8,280 7,944 8,244 300 6 809
Oct-22 8,068 8,310 8,068 8,218 7,998 8,190 192 9,599 20,573
Nov-22 8,038 8,208 7,986 8,120 7,894 8,094 200 14,120 76,332
Dec-22 7,934 8,136 7,912 8,044 7,790 8,018 228 6,897 50,558
Jan-23 7,850 8,038 7,796 7,954 7,710 7,922 212 612,072 413,599
Feb-23 7,800 8,040 7,792 7,960 7,712 7,920 208 3,004 26,992
Mar-23 7,858 8,034 7,812 7,954 7,724 7,928 204 3,529 13,462
Apr-23 7,910 8,050 7,814 7,968 7,748 7,926 178 3,234 9,024
May-23 7,858 8,048 7,822 7,978 7,760 7,948 188 25,337 35,756
Jun-23 – – – 7,812 7,774 7,812 38 0 53
Jul-23 7,806 7,978 7,802 7,904 7,708 7,882 174 35 119
Aug-23 7,818 7,968 7,794 7,910 7,696 7,880 184 17 24
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 542,343 lots, or 5.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,200 10,292 9,274 10,292 9,968 9,922 -46 3 2,425
Nov-22 9,882 10,016 9,848 9,960 9,724 9,934 210 11,486 73,855
Dec-22 9,630 9,756 9,590 9,700 9,440 9,674 234 7,053 67,350
Jan-23 9,400 9,514 9,326 9,438 9,160 9,420 260 490,858 416,708
Mar-23 8,922 9,056 8,884 9,000 8,710 8,972 262 4,199 35,701
May-23 8,950 9,008 8,822 8,940 8,662 8,920 258 22,402 35,429
Jul-23 8,782 8,918 8,740 8,860 8,580 8,836 256 2,185 9,992
Aug-23 8,698 8,852 8,682 8,798 8,512 8,778 266 4,157 8,775
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322