About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher on Friday and was in a trading range for most of last week in anticipation of the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. Chart support was noted at 101.00 December and some speculative buying was noted at that level. The harvest is coming and the market is preparing for it. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 110.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 96.70, 77.50 December. Support is at 101.20, 99.50, and 97.60 December, with resistance of 106.00, 108.70 and 111.00 December.

Bloomberg Trade Estimates for WASDE:
2022-23: Avg Low High Aug. Avg vs Prior
US Production 12.77 12.20 13.50 12.57 0.199
US Exports 12.09 11.60 12.50 12.00 0.088
US End Stocks 1.86 1.50 2.50 1.80 0.056
World Production 116.50 116.00 117.01 117.01 -0.508
World Consumption 118.41 117.50 119.00 119.09 -0.684
World End Stocks 82.56 81.20 84.00 82.77 -0.215

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 06, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 291,233
: Positions :
: 45,990 26,605 74,432 73,097 169,478 81,367 11,889 274,886 282,403: 16,348 8,830
: Changes from: August 30, 2022 (Change in open interest: -5,438) :
: -2,019 626 -2,277 2,743 -5,344 -3,132 1,468 -4,685 -5,527: -752 89
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 9.1 25.6 25.1 58.2 27.9 4.1 94.4 97.0: 5.6 3.0
: Total Traders: 293 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 58 89 56 67 49 17 242 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ turned sideways late in the week after trending down. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 39.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 162.00, 159.00, and 156.00 November, with resistance at 173.00, 175.00, and 178.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 6, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,470 :
: Positions :
: 1,371 8,927 2,697 0 0 3,337 236 99 680 546 1,023 :
: Changes from: August 30, 2022 :
: -131 -81 -9 0 -2 335 50 89 -165 237 160 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 77.8 23.5 0.0 0.0 29.1 2.1 0.9 5.9 4.8 8.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 9 11 7 0 0 23 . 4 4 10 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher on Friday and London as the US Dollar moved sharply lower and offset ideas of improving conditions for the Brazil crop and hopes for better offers. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region for this weekend. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are mostly above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.615 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 204.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,399 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 226.00, 221.00, and 217.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 234.00 and 237.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2240, 2220, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2300, 2350, and 2390 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 06, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 247,289
: Positions :
: 38,888 10,136 70,237 70,567 146,661 57,604 12,309 237,296 239,343: 9,993 7,946
: Changes from: August 30, 2022 (Change in open interest: 1,821) :
: -1,390 612 911 2,508 341 106 104 2,135 1,968: -315 -147
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 4.1 28.4 28.5 59.3 23.3 5.0 96.0 96.8: 4.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 400 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 71 126 104 118 50 24 347 294:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/06/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
129,410 59,540 88,475 1,275 7,088 3,322
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.0% 68.4% 1.0% 5.5% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 37 41 5 8 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,460 2,384 6,632 6,059 2,015 15,533
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.5% 1.8% 5.1% 4.7% 1.6% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 8 11 14 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,589 3,961
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher on Friday in range trading. Support came from a sharply lower US Dollar and selling appeared as the market tries to identify much demand. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning some of it into Ethanol but is making more Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year. The EU is expected to have a shortfall of 785,000 tons of White Sugar this year due to less Sugarbeets production caused by the drought. Processors have opened early to begin processing the beets.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 535.00, 530.00, and 527.00 December and resistance is at 544.00, 547.00, and 553.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 06, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 913,375
: Positions :
: 77,003 107,176 205,090 324,143 481,203 240,207 57,723 846,444 851,192: 66,931 62,183
: Changes from: August 30, 2022 (Change in open interest: 12,290) :
: 2,617 10,072 8,496 9,945 -6,538 -4,927 -2,271 16,131 9,758: -3,841 2,532
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 11.7 22.5 35.5 52.7 26.3 6.3 92.7 93.2: 7.3 6.8
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 59 79 73 71 39 22 214 197:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/06/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
83,734 28,628 66,723 6,476 4,024 2,528
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.2% 79.7% 7.7% 4.8% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
114 37 33 6 5 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
29,950 1,525 4,536 2,688 690 1,102
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.8% 1.8% 5.4% 3.2% 0.8% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 4 20 7 5 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,826 2,606
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.3% 3.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher with the US Dollar moving lower, but ideas of big production and uncertain demand kept the markets in a sideways trend at best. Trends are mixed in both markets but the price action has been weak. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.756 million bags. ICE NY said that 61 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,641 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 December. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2310 December, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1800, and 1770 December, with resistance at 1880, 1900, and 1930 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 06, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 347,208
: Positions :
: 51,665 69,853 85,165 136,812 145,811 59,631 35,767 333,273 336,596: 13,935 10,612
: Changes from: August 30, 2022 (Change in open interest: 1,971) :
: -3,321 78 -74 4,774 -935 1,501 1,835 2,880 904: -909 1,067
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 20.1 24.5 39.4 42.0 17.2 10.3 96.0 96.9: 4.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 77 76 54 37 32 21 209 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/06/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
285,158 156,867 181,700 27,179 35,786 16,405
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.0% 63.7% 9.5% 12.5% 5.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 49 47 14 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,002 9,473 13,318 11,189 2,886 22,731
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.9% 3.3% 4.7% 3.9% 1.0% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 15 19 10 12 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,467 2,859
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322