About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher in recovery trading after being pushed lower in recent days. Chart support was noted at 101.00 December and some speculative buying was noted at that level. The harvest is coming and the market is preparing for it. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 109.11 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 96.70, 77.50 December. Support is at 101.20, 99.50, and 97.60 December, with resistance of 106.00, 108.70 and 111.00 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 8
As of Sep 2. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 56,332 56,019 313 19,517 20,005 -488
Mar 23 13,215 12,141 1,074 3,284 3,212 72
May 23 7,854 7,631 223 151 142 9
Jul 23 15,218 13,791 1,427 266 245 21
Dec 23 6,521 6,327 194 14,153 13,977 176
Mar 24 309 309 0 0 0 0
May 24 395 423 -28 0 0 0
Jul 24 415 415 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 437 404 33
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 100,259 97,056 3,203 38,028 38,205 -177
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 22 86 89 -3
Dec 22 114,871 113,605 1,266
Mar 23 45,897 44,166 1,731
May 23 17,979 17,377 602
Jul 23 12,230 12,373 -143
Dec 23 20,012 19,866 146
Mar 24 2,038 2,097 -59
May 24 223 289 -66
Jul 24 116 116 0
Dec 24 142 142 0
Mar 25 18 18 0
Total 213,612 210,138 3,474

Bloomberg Trade Estimates for WASDE:
2022-23: Avg Low High Aug. Avg vs Prior
US Production 12.77 12.20 13.50 12.57 0.199
US Exports 12.09 11.60 12.50 12.00 0.088
US End Stocks 1.86 1.50 2.50 1.80 0.056
World Production 116.50 116.00 117.01 117.01 -0.508
World Consumption 118.41 117.50 119.00 119.09 -0.684
World End Stocks 82.56 81.20 84.00 82.77 -0.215

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday in consolidation trading. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 39.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 162.00, 159.00, and 156.00 November, with resistance at 173.00, 175.00, and 178.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack for Week Ended Aug 13
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
8/13/2022 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
8/13/2022 8/14/2021 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 155.80 256.50 -39.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.65 5.63 18.1%
Total 162.44 262.13 -38.0%
Pack
Bulk 0.81 0.63 27.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.09 0.99 10.0%
Total Pack 1.89 1.62 16.9%
Reprocessed -1.89 -1.62 16.9%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.15 -0.05 239.8%
Imports – Foreign 0.00 0.29 -100.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.21 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.05 0.10 -45.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 154.82 255.85 -39.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.73 6.62 16.9%
Total 162.56 262.47 -38.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.64 3.53 59.8%
Exports 0.80 0.32 145.5%
Total (Bulk) 6.44 3.85 67.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.06 1.19 -11.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.06 1.19 -11.4%
Total Movement 7.49 5.05 48.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 148.39 252.00 -41.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.67 5.42 23.1%
Ending Inventory 155.06 257.42 -39.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
13-Aug-22 14-Aug-21 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Total 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Pack
Bulk 80.18 74.24 8.0%
Retail/Institutional 54.83 47.89 14.5%
Total Pack 135.01 122.13 10.5%
Reprocessed -114.70 -91.90 24.8%
Pack from Fruit 20.31 30.23 -32.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.55 -0.97 161.7%
Imports – Foreign 178.27 185.76 -4.0%
Domestic Receipts 4.55 15.27 -70.2%
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 7.56 1.28 489.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 4.52 6.58 -31.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 3.56 3.01 18.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 388.04 447.36 -13.3%
Retail/Institutional 60.91 53.45 13.9%
Total 448.95 500.81 -10.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 221.24 176.74 25.2%
Domestic 18.41 18.62 -1.1%
Exports 239.65 195.36 22.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 53.91 48.03 12.2%
Exports 0.32 0.00 NA
Total (Retail/Inst) 54.23 48.03 12.9%
Total Movement 293.89 243.39 20.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 148.39 252.00 -41.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.67 5.42 23.1%
Ending Inventory 155.06 257.42 -39.8%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower again yesterday and London was higher on ideas of improving conditions for the Brazil crop and hopes for better offers. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region for this weekend. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are mostly above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.624 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 200.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,399 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 217.00, 215.00, and 212.00 December, and resistance is at 228.00, 231.00 and 234.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2240, 2220, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2280, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were mixed yesterday in range trading. Nearby months were a little higher and deferred months closed slightly lower. Weakness in Crude Oil futures did not affect the prices for Raw Sugar all that much but did help push prices lower in the end. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning some of it into Ethanol but is making more Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year. The EU is expected to have a shortfall of 785,000 tons of White Sugar this year due to less Sugarbeets production caused by the drought. Processors have opened early to begin processing the beets.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 527.00, 520.00, and 517.00 December and resistance is at 539.00, 544.00, and 547.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower with the US Dollar moving higher again for at least part of the session. Trends are mixed in both markets but the price action has been weak. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.756 million bags. ICE NY said that 99 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,580 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 December. Support is at 2310, 2280, and 2250 December, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1830, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1880, 1900, and 1930 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322