About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower and the chart trends remain down due to demand fears and especially Chinese demand. The harvest is coming and the market is preparing for it. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 106.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 96.70, 77.50 December. Support is at 99.50, 97.60, and 95.10 December, with resistance of 106.00, 108.70 and 111.00 December.

Bloomberg Trade Estimates for WASDE:
2022-23: Avg Low High Aug. Avg vs Prior
US Production 12.77 12.20 13.50 12.57 0.199
US Exports 12.09 11.60 12.50 12.00 0.088
US End Stocks 1.86 1.50 2.50 1.80 0.056
World Production 116.50 116.00 117.01 117.01 -0.508
World Consumption 118.41 117.50 119.00 119.09 -0.684
World End Stocks 82.56 81.20 84.00 82.77 -0.215

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and continued to fade. A stronger US Dollar for part of the session kept some of the selling pressure on. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 162.00, 159.00, and 156.00 November, with resistance at 175.00, 178.00, and 182.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was sharply lower and London was lower yesterday on ideas of improving conditions for the Brazil crop and hopes for better offers as the Real moved lower. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region part of this week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are mostly above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.630 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 200.69 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,399 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 223.00, 217.00, and 215.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 234.00 and 237.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2140 November, and resistance is at 2270, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London was mostly a little lower yesterday in range trading. Weakness in Crude Oil futures did not affect the prices for Raw Sugar all that much. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning some of it into Ethanol but is making more Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 527.00, 520.00, and 517.00 December and resistance is at 539.00, 544.00, and 547.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower with the US Dollar moving higher again for at least part of the session. Trends are mixed in both markets. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.761 million bags. ICE NY said that 226 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,481 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2290 December. Support is at 2310, 2280, and 2250 December, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1880, 1900, and 1930 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322