About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 09, 2022 74 Aug 29, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 09, 2022 3 Aug 31, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 09, 2022 273 Sep 07, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on news that Russia wants a new export treaty for Ukraine. It says that Ukraine is selling too much to big western countries and not enough to developing nations. It has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too.. US demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until the middle of the Summer. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Russian Wheat prices have been going down in an effort to move the crop. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 876 December. Support is at 819, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 864, 875, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 858, 850, and 822 December, with resistance at 921, 934, and 9856 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 878, 863, and 852 December, and resistance is at 930, 945, and 955 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower on follow through selling. The Texas harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand remains a big question with the domestic market reported to be quiet and with no export sales information yet from USDA. Trends are now down on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1685, 1680, and 1659 November and resistance is at 1731, 1744, and 1755 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on demand concerns. There are reports of less cattle and that means domestic demand could be hurt. Ethanol demand ideas took a hit yesterday as Crude Oil moved lower. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 257,400 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 669, 661, and 647 December, and resistance is at 688, 690, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 370, 364, and 358 December, and resistance is at 396, 418, and 424 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on weaker demand ideas. Newswires noted that Chinese Soybeans exports were down 25% last month. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. There are reports that Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian were closed last week and might still be closed this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1382 and 1326 November. Support is at 1384, 1376, and 1367 November, and resistance is at 1423, 1432, and 1448 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 and 376.00 October. Support is at 408.00, 401.00, and 398.00 October, and resistance is at 422.00 428.00, and 430.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6300, 6200, and 62160 October, with resistance at 6520, 6670, and 6930 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on what appeared to be speculative short covering. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was lower with the price action in Chicago and as the Canola harvest approaches. The Canola growing conditions are much improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 786.00, 746.00, and 724.00 November. Support is at 779.00, 763.00, and 753.00 November, with resistance at 818.00, 833.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3680 November. Support is at 3630, 3520, and 3400 November, with resistance at 4000, 4050, and 4340 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 7
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 779.60 -19.00 Nov 2022 dn 18.50
Track Thunder Bay 821.50 35.00 Nov 2022 dn 12.10
Track Vancouver 841.50 55.00 Nov 2022 dn 12.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 887.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 897.50 -45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 890.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 900.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 840.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3650.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 302.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,679 lots, or 6.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,888 5,930 5,888 5,929 5,860 5,895 35 34 1,230
Nov-22 5,773 5,820 5,755 5,760 5,772 5,782 10 82,925 89,465
Jan-23 5,650 5,705 5,649 5,671 5,664 5,675 11 24,452 43,957
Mar-23 5,591 5,624 5,571 5,581 5,583 5,592 9 11,146 12,206
May-23 5,588 5,620 5,577 5,586 5,582 5,595 13 110 2,356
Jul-23 5,580 5,597 5,563 5,563 5,565 5,574 9 12 414
Corn
Turnover: 546,916 lots, or 15.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,735 2,735 2,726 2,726 2,740 2,739 -1 203 3,364
Nov-22 2,773 2,791 2,753 2,782 2,778 2,773 -5 115,771 280,338
Jan-23 2,810 2,824 2,785 2,805 2,807 2,803 -4 386,169 843,720
Mar-23 2,813 2,832 2,794 2,817 2,816 2,811 -5 19,820 167,915
May-23 2,855 2,871 2,837 2,865 2,854 2,852 -2 18,559 57,180
Jul-23 2,873 2,881 2,851 2,875 2,866 2,864 -2 6,394 36,677
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,038,028 lots, or 40.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,643 4,740 4,598 4,719 4,595 4,698 103 920 2,623
Nov-22 4,343 4,387 4,301 4,312 4,282 4,333 51 95,454 244,667
Dec-22 4,064 4,131 4,043 4,046 4,024 4,085 61 20,439 120,255
Jan-23 3,860 3,923 3,835 3,838 3,815 3,869 54 825,923 1,397,783
Mar-23 3,697 3,756 3,676 3,679 3,656 3,715 59 11,943 52,923
May-23 3,550 3,604 3,523 3,527 3,514 3,557 43 69,469 168,683
Jul-23 3,520 3,577 3,498 3,500 3,487 3,533 46 8,847 13,705
Aug-23 3,544 3,603 3,524 3,528 3,518 3,554 36 5,033 6,159
Palm Oil
Turnover: 835,648 lots, or 64.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 – – – 8,088 8,188 8,088 -100 0 809
Oct-22 8,102 8,126 7,964 7,990 8,170 8,048 -122 19,101 24,957
Nov-22 7,966 8,008 7,860 7,888 8,062 7,936 -126 14,449 77,451
Dec-22 7,884 7,920 7,778 7,796 7,992 7,842 -150 7,457 49,273
Jan-23 7,810 7,834 7,688 7,706 7,894 7,756 -138 763,194 439,166
Feb-23 7,812 7,836 7,694 7,708 7,902 7,762 -140 6,811 26,742
Mar-23 7,886 7,886 7,682 7,714 7,910 7,778 -132 6,105 13,186
Apr-23 7,888 7,888 7,720 7,734 7,902 7,782 -120 3,283 8,102
May-23 7,860 7,872 7,716 7,732 7,894 7,794 -100 15,198 35,733
Jun-23 – – – 7,774 7,996 7,774 -222 0 53
Jul-23 7,752 7,812 7,678 7,678 7,828 7,734 -94 23 120
Aug-23 7,776 7,818 7,702 7,702 7,834 7,760 -74 27 21
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 809,175 lots, or 74.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 – – – 9,968 10,200 9,968 -232 0 2,426
Nov-22 9,708 9,836 9,682 9,692 9,870 9,748 -122 23,725 76,148
Dec-22 9,510 9,542 9,396 9,400 9,610 9,458 -152 8,932 67,468
Jan-23 9,210 9,278 9,114 9,120 9,358 9,182 -176 737,527 440,394
Mar-23 8,790 8,834 8,648 8,648 8,918 8,738 -180 3,332 35,779
May-23 8,780 8,800 8,590 8,590 8,906 8,688 -218 25,450 33,815
Jul-23 8,680 8,712 8,502 8,502 8,808 8,606 -202 3,763 10,281
Aug-23 8,618 8,652 8,456 8,460 8,766 8,542 -224 6,446 7,954
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322