About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. July Coffee, Tea Export, Re-exports-Sep 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones. Data includes Exports and Re-Exports
—-Jul 2022—- —-Jun 2022—-
-Exports/ReExports kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
unroasted 5,480,455 12,084,403 5,196,008 11,457,198
roasted 536,326 1,182,599 418,531 922,861
extracts, essences
concentrates 693,970 1,530,204 557,503 1,229,294
tea and mate 1,346,132 2,968,221 992,686 2,188,873

DJ U.S. July Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Sep 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.

—-Jul 2022—- —-Jun 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 140,197,736 309,136,008 125,764,800 277,311,384
coffee, roasted 9,616,051 21,203,392 9,019,742 19,888,531
coffee, soluble
instant 6,385,099 14,079,143 5,988,303 13,204,208
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 18,313,444 40,381,144 48,561,298 107,077,662
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,678,815 5,906,787 2,651,579 5,846,732
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 10,578,425 23,325,427 12,382,683 27,303,816
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,492,308 12,110,539 5,622,818 12,398,314
cocoa paste
defatted 6,690,664 14,752,914 7,004,399 15,444,700
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 7,770,435 17,133,809 10,583,951 23,337,612
cocoa powder,
sweetened 51,697 113,992 63,893 140,884
confectioners
coating 5,087,303 11,217,503 4,516,558 9,959,010
candy containing
chocolate 14,702,712 32,419,480 14,630,809 32,260,934

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher but the chart trends remain down due to demand fears and especially Chinese demand. The harvest is coming and the market is preparing for it. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 109.08 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 10430, 8670, and 7750 December. Support is at 99.50, 97.60, and 95.10 December, with resistance of 111.00, 115.30 and 118.50 December.

DJ U.S. July Cotton Exports-Sep 7
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jul 21
Upland, under 1 inch 7,858,604 11,280,706 10,472,545 6,415,077
1 to 1 1/8 inch 108,030,690 95,334,582 116,221,124 88,699,282
upland 1 1/8 and over 2,394,520 5,238,169 8,452,323 7,953,084
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 187,968,971 257,883,818 276,900,639 136,945,823
All cotton 306,252,785 369,737,275 412,046,631 240,013,266
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jul 21
Upland, under 1 inch 36,094 51,812 48,100 29,464
1 to 1 1/8 inch 496,181 437,868 533,799 407,392
upland 1 1/8 and over 10,998 24,059 38,821 36,528
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 863,334 1,184,451 1,271,794 628,987
All cotton 1,406,608 1,698,189 1,892,515 1,102,372

Crop Progress
Date 4-Sep 28-Aug 2021 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 97 94 93 96
Cotton Bolls Opening 39 28 28 32
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 16 34 30 5
Cotton Last Week 17 19 30 29 5
Cotton Last Year 1 6 32 50 11

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday and continued to fade after the big rally of last week. A stronger US Dollar kept the selling pressure on. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 162.00 November, with resistance at 175.00, 178.00, and 182.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday after the long weekend here in the US. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets and the rally should hold together longer term. Futures have come close to objectives for the move higher for the short term. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region part of this week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are mostly above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.630 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 205.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 54 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,397 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 227.00, 223.00, and 217.00 December, and resistance is at 234.00, 237.00 and 243.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2140 November, and resistance is at 2270, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday in range trading. The market is still asking for Sugar for the most part, but the supply seems to be there, at least for Raw Sugar from Brazil. White Sugar from other origins seems to be less for right now. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Brazil is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as it is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year, but some have already signed contracts to sell 300,000 tons into the world market due to advantageous market conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 549.00 December. Support is at 530.00, 527.00, and 520.00 December and resistance is at 539.00, 544.00, and 547.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower with the US Dollar moving higher again. Trends are mixed in both markets. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.722 million bags. ICE NY said that 272 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,255 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2360, 2310, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2470 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1880, 1900, and 1930 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322