About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. July Grain Exports-Sep 7
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jul 21
Barley 1,800,290 2,998,000 896,165 1,251,000
Corn /1 4,583,008,000 5,492,988,000 7,188,200,000 5,473,110,000
Sorghum 408,873,000 592,512,000 873,109,000 429,499,000
Oats 7,049,832 2,207,740 934,225 2,207,741
Rye 611,800 888,972 1,384,600 1,168,900
Wheat /1 1,535,399,917 1,593,052,578 1,361,020,597 2,052,111,704
wheat flour /1 19,425,795 18,603,300 19,573,226 18,948,866
Malt 25,064,127 25,543,656 24,817,707 30,723,643
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jul 21
Barley 82,686 137,696 41,160 57,457
Corn /1 180,423,204 216,247,166 282,984,030 215,464,612
Sorghum 16,096,454 23,325,928 34,372,430 16,908,455
Oats 485,689 152,099 64,362 152,100
Rye 24,085 34,997 54,509 46,017
Wheat /1 56,415,710 58,534,061 50,008,433 75,401,424
wheat flour /1 428,266 410,133 431,516 417,751
Malt 55,256,951 56,314,132 54,713,688 67,734,050
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. July Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Sep 7
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jul 21
soybeans 2,323,126,517 2,271,140,185 2,417,659,607 947,224,676
soyoil 53,648,559 33,324,929 33,802,222 16,358,398
crude 45,407,779 25,797,064 26,977,958 8,823,378
refined 138,844 135,055 333,641 181,410
other/1 7,943,557 7,206,334 6,211,760 7,114,779
hydrogenated 158,379 186,476 278,863 238,831
cottonseed oil 4,930,051 8,298,074 3,133,382 1,460,328
crude 958,323 753,123 468,312 3,373
refined 3,043,983 6,559,670 1,497,670 963,890
other/1 454,254 794,048 873,948 427,876
hydrogenated 473,491 191,233 293,452 65,189
sunseeds 57,782 92,526 1,814 46,942
sunseed oil 8,956,505 5,627,909 7,381,155 6,228,520
rapeseed 3,263,305 3,057,202 2,039,078 9,688,316
rapeseed oil 4,985,167 4,483,556 4,662,525 14,053,684
crude 1,123,708 734,559 1,360,171 6,028,913
refined 3,861,459 3,748,997 3,302,354 8,024,771
linseed meal 203,092 525,199 333,759 0
cottonseed meal 5,130,259 4,806,465 7,265,847 7,042,445
soymeal 669,080,108 857,614,087 869,552,500 694,505,587
soymeal/flour 150,010,112 155,685,830 149,728,490 264,391,249
soymeal hulls 10,707,000 26,308,000 17,462,000 22,273,000
lard 1,163,678 892,302 1,449,933 3,511,695
edible tallow 6,544,488 5,088,511 6,284,598 6,301,557
inedible tallow 27,200,791 16,951,436 13,955,893 19,276,670
ch white grease 0 0 0 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jul 22 Jun 22 May 22 Jun 21
soybeans 85,359,411 83,449,260 88,832,872 34,804,192
soyoil 118,274,847 73,468,905 74,521,156 36,064,100
crude 100,107,034 56,872,801 59,476,227 19,452,222
refined 306,099 297,745 735,553 399,941
other/1 17,512,548 15,887,250 13,694,589 15,685,405
hydrogenated 349,166 411,109 614,788 526,532
cottonseed oil 10,868,904 18,294,125 6,907,926 3,219,473
crude 2,112,741 1,660,352 1,032,451 7,436
refined 6,710,835 14,461,599 3,301,798 2,125,014
other/1 1,001,459 1,750,576 1,926,726 943,305
hydrogenated 1,043,869 421,597 646,951 143,717
sunseeds 127,388 203,985 3,999 103,489
sunseed oil 19,745,717 12,407,418 16,272,664 13,731,538
rapeseed 7,194,357 6,739,978 4,495,398 21,359,084
rapeseed oil 10,990,414 9,884,551 10,279,110 30,983,075
crude 2,477,353 1,619,426 2,998,664 13,291,480
refined 8,513,061 8,265,125 7,280,446 17,691,595
linseed meal 224 579 368 0
cottonseed meal 5,655 5,298 8,009 7,763
soymeal 737,527 945,348 958,508 765,554
soymeal flour/me 165,356 171,612 165,046 291,438
soymeal hulls 11,802 28,999 19,248 24,552
lard 2,565,471 1,967,190 3,196,556 7,741,964
edible tallow 14,428,129 11,218,248 13,855,169 13,892,557
inedible tallow 59,967,489 37,371,526 30,767,483 42,497,790
ch white grease 0 0 0 0

DJ U.S. July Grain Imports-Sep 7
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jul 2022—- —-Jun 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 862,087 1,900,902 389,179 858,140
spring wheat 0 0 27,726 61,136
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 862,087 1,900,902 416,905 919,276
barley 14,388,641 31,726,953 60,469,927 133,336,189
oats 301,596 665,019 574,422 1,266,601
corn 40,893,707 90,170,624 30,224,417 66,644,839
other corn 3,867,557 8,527,963 6,024,950 13,285,015
TOTAL CORN 44,761,264 98,698,587 36,249,367 79,929,854

DJ U.S. Jul Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Sep 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jul 2022—- —-Jun 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 53,074,260 117,028,743 37,699,272 83,126,895
palm kernel oil 39,694,047 87,525,374 15,291,252 33,717,211
palm oil 57,689,323 127,204,957 117,441,587 258,958,699
soybean 59,285,682 130,724,929 20,120,653 44,366,040
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 11,367,093 25,064,440 11,076,862 24,424,481
rapeseed oil
edible 166,920,446 368,059,583 164,656,376 363,067,309
rapeseed oil,
inedible 28,365 62,545 68,295 150,590

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks as of July 31, 2022 – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2022, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31
2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021
Barley 285 551 219 160 504 711
Canaryseed 3 51 18 22 21 73
Canola 242 1,072 633 704 875 1,776
Chickpeas 122 245 25 30 147 275
Corn .. 1,485 .. 684 .. 2,169
Flaxseed 38 27 47 32 85 59
Lentils 90 330 134 108 224 438
Mustard 2 48 4 13 6 61
Oats 147 349 171 308 318 657
Peas 200 292 185 267 385 559
Rye 81 56 28 35 109 91
Soybeans .. 19 .. 275 .. 294
Sunflower 115 115 3 1 118 116
All wheat 970 2,432 2,701 3,522 3,671 5,953
Durum 70 137 495 676 565 813

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 6
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Sep 06, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 01, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/01/2022 08/25/2022 09/02/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 147 0 1,214 6,550
CORN 518,373 689,451 338,716 109,584 39,453
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,386 100
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 58,242 22,471 5,350 1,294 1,317
SOYBEANS 495,845 439,811 93,653 49,582 30,354
SUNFLOWER 192 288 0 0 0
WHEAT 477,657 631,326 412,649 5,602,812 6,616,276
Total 1,550,309 1,783,494 850,368 5,770,872 6,694,074
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 4-Sep 28-Aug 2021 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 97 94 93 96
Cotton Bolls Opening 39 28 28 32
Corn Dough 92 86 94 93
Corn Dented 63 46 72 67
Corn Mature 15 8 19 18
Soybeans Setting Pods 94 91 96 96
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 10 4 17 14
Sorghum Headed 92 88 98 97
Sorghum Coloring 62 48 71 67
Sorghum Mature 28 23 31 29
Sorghum Harvested 20 18 19 21
Rice Harvested 24 18 27 28
Oats Harvested 90 80 96 93
Winter Wheat Planted 3 5 3
Spring Wheat Harvested 71 50 94 83
Barley Harvested 77 62 91 86

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 16 34 30 5
Cotton Last Week 17 19 30 29 5
Cotton Last Year 1 6 32 50 11

Corn This Week 8 11 27 43 11
Corn Last Week 8 11 27 42 12
Corn Last Year 4 18 27 45 14

Soybeans This Week 5 9 29 47 10
Soybeans Last Week 4 9 30 46 11
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 29 46 11

Sorghum This Week 17 28 34 20 1
Sorghum Last Week 16 28 35 19 2
Sorghum Last Year 3 10 30 47 10

Rice This Week 1 3 24 56 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 26 53 17
Rice Last Year 1 3 21 60 15

Peanuts This Week 1 4 25 59 11
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 26 59 10
Peanuts Last Year 0 2 24 64 10

Barley This Week 4 11 29 47 9
Barley Last Week 3 12 31 46 8
Barley Last Year 25 26 26 19 4

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 23 30 23 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 22 24 29 21 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 20 21 30 24 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday but held inside the longer term trading range for each market. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until the middle of the Summer. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Russian Wheat prices have been going down in an effort to move the crop. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 783, 774, and 743 December, with resistance at 849, 864, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 858, 850, and 822 December, with resistance at 921, 956, and 989 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 878, 863, and 852 December, and resistance is at 945, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower as some big selling hit about the middle of the session. The selling seemed to be by speculators and it looked like long liquidation hit the pit.. No one knows how export demand has been since USDA is still working on the computer system and cannot give weekly updates yet. The Texas harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Trends are now down on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1708, 1644, and 1605 November and resistance is at 1731, 1744, and 1755 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 7
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.20 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.89 9.90 0.00
Brokens 8.84 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on news that Informa had estimated US Corn yields at about 171 bushels per acre, a lower estimate from them and one close to the Pro Farmer estimate of 168 bushels per acre released a couple of weeks ago. Informa is noted as a high end estimate so the fact that they came in so low was considered bullish.. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe. Oats also closed higher.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 257,400 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 661, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 677, 684, and 690 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 364, 358, and 352 December, and resistance is at 396, 418, and 424 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on weaker demand ideas ss the us Dollar moved much higher and as there were no announcements on the daily reporting system by USDA. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. There are reports that Brazil is still offering and that South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian were closed last week and might still be closed this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1382 and 1326 November. Support is at 1390, 1384, and 1376 November, and resistance is at 1423, 1432, and 1448 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 and 376.00 October. Support is at 407.00, 401.00, and 398.00 October, and resistance is at 419.00 422.00, and 430.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6390, 6300, and 6200 October, with resistance at 6930, 7030, and 7130 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of bigger production and less demand. MPOB data will be released this week and will help direct the next move for the futures market. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Canola was lower with the price action in Chicago. The Canola growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 786.00, 746.00, and 724.00 November. Support is at 794.00, 779.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 857.00, and 870.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3680 November. Support is at 3720, 3630, and 3520 November, with resistance at 4000, 4050, and 4340 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 815.40 -19.00 Nov. 2022 dn 22.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 852.10 35.00 Nov. 2022 up 5.10
Basis: Vancouver 872.10 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 5.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 917.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 927.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 942.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 920.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 930.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 945.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 850.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 640.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3750.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 307.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sept. 7
Soybean No. 1
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 5851 5860 5861 5860 4000
Nov-22 5753 5768 5776 5772 92890
Jan-23 5668 5645 5694 5664 44836
Mar-23 5595 5570 5595 5583 11749
May-23 5634 5565 5605 5582 2357
Jul-23 5594 5550 5591 5565 415
Subtotal 156247
Corn
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 2750 2735 2750 2740 4855
Nov-22 2790 2768 2787 2778 272534
Jan-23 2827 2797 2819 2807 865976
Mar-23 2815 2804 2830 2816 168157
May-23 2867 2847 2866 2854 52677
Jul-23 2879 2860 2878 2866 35689
Subtotal 1399888
Soymeal
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 4604 4610 4506 4595 3538
Nov-22 4230 4321 4277 4282 243175
Dec-22 4000 4054 4031 4024 117505
Jan-23 3800 3840 3833 3815 1408322
Mar-23 3635 3682 3668 3656 53017
May-23 3508 3530 3530 3514 161076
Jul-23 3487 3500 3504 3487 13742
Aug-23 3523 3529 3540 3518 6176
Subtotal 2006551
Palm Oil
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 8234 8148 8376 8188 809
Oct-22 8224 8088 8228 8170 28366
Nov-22 8120 7948 8110 8062 76322
Dec-22 8036 7868 8046 7992 48499
Jan-23 7942 7774 8000 7894 444379
Feb-23 8028 7792 8004 7902 26355
Mar-23 7930 7796 8006 7910 12806
Apr-23 7976 7802 8006 7902 6979
May-23 7998 7812 8044 7894 32040
Jun-23 7996 7996 8038 7996 53
Jul-23 7968 7778 7984 7828 109
Aug-23 7918 7724 7982 7834 21
Subtotal 676738
Soybean Oil
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 0 10200 10214 10200 2426
Nov-22 9938 9702 9986 9870 76684
Dec-22 9728 9448 9704 9610 66799
Jan-23 9576 9202 9526 9358 434850
Mar-23 9100 8790 9086 8918 35459
May-23 9000 8762 9038 8906 34584
Jul-23 8918 8678 8950 8808 9788
Aug-23 8872 8616 8898 8766 7510
Subtotal 668100
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322