About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton broke down from its sideways trade in the middle of the week and the trends started to turn down Part of the selling came as the US Dollar moved to new highs for the last 20 years and part of the reason came from other demand fears and especially about Chinese demand. The harvest is coming and rallies are being sold by producers and some speculators. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 109.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 10430, 8670, and 7750 December. Support is at 99.50, 97.60, and 95.10 December, with resistance of 111.30, 115.30 and 118.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 296,671
: Positions :
: 48,009 25,978 76,709 70,354 174,822 84,499 10,421 279,571 287,930: 17,100 8,741
\ : Changes from: August 23, 2022 (Change in open interest: 8,043) :
: 3,101 1,873 1,727 1,583 3,916 682 1,032 7,094 8,548: 949 -505
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 8.8 25.9 23.7 58.9 28.5 3.5 94.2 97.1: 5.8 2.9
: Total Traders: 293 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 58 89 55 66 49 16 241 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week and gave back much of the early week rally as some long liquidation hit the pit. A stronger US Dollar on Thursday kept the selling pressure on and the market needed a correction from the big up move seen in recent days, anyway. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 169.00, 166.00, and 162.00 November, with resistance at 178.00, 182.00, and 189.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,912 :
: Positions :
: 1,502 9,007 2,706 0 2 3,002 186 10 845 310 863 :
: Changes from: August 23, 2022 :
: -31 -371 145 0 -5 -791 124 -69 39 -117 -32 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 82.5 24.8 0.0 0.0 27.5 1.7 0.1 7.7 2.8 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 10 11 7 0 . 20 . . 8 5 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week as the US Dollar surged to the highest level in the last 20 years. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets and the rally should hold together longer term. Futures have come close to objectives for the move higher for the short term. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. The forecasts call for some light and isolated to scattered showers in the region part of next week. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.635 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 203.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,343 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 237.00, 223.00, and 217.00 December, and resistance is at 234.00, 237.00 and 243.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2140, and 2110 November, and resistance is at 2270, 2300, and 2350 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 245,468
: Positions :
: 40,278 9,524 69,326 68,058 146,320 57,498 12,205 235,161 237,375: 10,307 8,093
: Changes from: August 23, 2022 (Change in open interest: 17,737) :
: 7,755 778 10,615 -4,687 6,028 3,633 459 17,316 17,880: 421 -144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 3.9 28.2 27.7 59.6 23.4 5.0 95.8 96.7: 4.2 3.3
: Total Traders: 390 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 67 110 103 117 51 25 339 276:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/30/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
127,642 56,984 88,255 1,436 7,153 3,289
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.6% 69.1% 1.1% 5.6% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
142 40 43 6 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,170 2,121 6,212 6,158 2,461 15,024
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.2% 1.7% 4.9% 4.8% 1.9% 11.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 8 13 14 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,369 3,127
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher on Friday as the market asks for Sugar. Trend turned up in London again as the need for White Sugar is strong. Trends are still mixed in New York due to Brazil selling. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are sideways in both markets. Brazil is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as it is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Indian exporters are waiting for the government to announce its export policy for the coming year, but some have already signed contracts to sell 300,000 tons into the world market due to advantageous market conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 549.00 December. Support is at 530.00, 527.00, and 520.00 December and resistance is at 539.00, 544.00, and 547.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 901,085
: Positions :
: 74,386 97,104 196,594 314,198 487,741 245,135 59,995 830,313 841,434: 70,772 59,651
: Changes from: August 23, 2022 (Change in open interest: 388) :
: -471 -7,945 3,673 -10,167 7,787 4,296 2,980 -2,668 6,496: 3,056 -6,109
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 10.8 21.8 34.9 54.1 27.2 6.7 92.1 93.4: 7.9 6.6
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 60 82 71 70 39 22 216 197:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/30/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
78,339 26,377 62,761 6,909 3,072 2,545
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.7% 80.1% 8.8% 3.9% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
112 36 32 7 5 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,383 1,856 3,518 2,222 762 1,152
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.2% 2.4% 4.5% 2.8% 1.0% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 5 20 6 4 4
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,233 2,673
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower with the US Dollar surging to new 20 year highs. Trends are turning up in London but are mixed in New York. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.722 million bags. ICE NY said that 241 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,983 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2310, 2290, and 2250 December, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1890 and 1950 December. Support is at 1840, 1830, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 30, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 345,237
: Positions :
: 54,986 69,776 85,239 132,038 146,746 58,130 33,932 330,393 335,693: 14,844 9,544
: Changes from: August 23, 2022 (Change in open interest: 2,965) :
: 3,892 -5,765 3,527 -3,189 8,104 -1,003 -1,768 3,228 4,098: -262 -1,133
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 20.2 24.7 38.2 42.5 16.8 9.8 95.7 97.2: 4.3 2.8
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 75 79 51 37 31 21 208 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/30/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
293,578 168,861 188,936 26,644 28,984 19,306
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.5% 64.4% 9.1% 9.9% 6.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 50 46 13 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,124 15,454 10,084 12,840 2,703 25,306
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 5.3% 3.4% 4.4% 0.9% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 17 16 14 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,413 2,805
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322