About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 06, 2022 20 Aug 22, 2022
ROUGH RICE September Sep 06, 2022 70 Aug 24, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 06, 2022 26 Aug 30, 2022
OATS September Sep 06, 2022 1 Aug 30, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 06, 2022 305 Sep 01, 2022

DJ Food Prices Fell in August But Lower Cereal Production Expected in 2022, UN Says
By Yusuf Khan
Food prices slid for the fifth consecutive month in August, but the global outlook for cereal production is falling, led by declines in European output, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said Friday.
The FAO’s food-price index, a closely watched barometer of global food prices, averaged 138 points in August, down 1.9% from the previous month but still 7.9% above the level seen last year.
The index has garnered vast attention since the start of the war in Ukraine, which spurred food prices to a record high of 159.3 points. Prices have remained high ever since given the troubles with exporting from the Black Sea as well as numerous weather problems around the world affecting agricultural output.
The FAO’s cereal price index fell by 1.4% in August, driven by a 5.1% drop in international wheat prices, the Rome-based body said. Resumptions in exports from the Black Sea as well as improved wheat output in the U.S. and Russia helped to lower this.
That said, the FAO expects grain production to fall by 38.9 million metric tons in 2022, a 1.4% drop from the previous year.
Much of this has come from drops in corn production from the European Union where the recent droughts have capped output. The FAO expects yields of corn in the EU to fall 16% below their five-year average.
Elsewhere, a 2.1% drop in rice production is also expected on uneven rainfall patterns in India and Bangladesh, though this is coming from 2021’s record-high production level of 522.5 million tons.
Vegetable oils meanwhile fell 3.3% in August, dipping below the level seen in August 2021. Lower prices for rapeseed, palm and sunflower oil helped to outweigh the effect of higher soybean oil prices on lower output from the U.S, with the resumption of exports from Ukraine as well as the rollout of lower export taxes by Indonesia.
Elsewhere, dairy prices fell 2% in August but are still 23.5% higher than they were a year ago on lower European and American production. Meat fell 1.5% from July while sugar fell 2.1% to its lowest level since July 2021.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved to new 20 ear highs and demand ideas got hurt. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. That could be changing now as Russia has started to bomb export facilities in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian initiative to start to take control of the southern parts of the country again. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 783, 774, and 743 December, with resistance at 849, 864, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 858, 850, and 822 December, with resistance at 921, 956, and 989 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 878, 863, and 852 December, and resistance is at 945, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday in early trading, then fell as the US Dollar moved to fresh 20 year highs and hurt demand ideas. No one knows how export demand has been since USDA is still working on the computer system and cannot give weekly updates yet. The Texas harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Trends are sideways on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1744, 1715, and 1674 November and resistance is at 1795, 1824, and 1848 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the US Dollar moved to new highs for the last 20 years and hutrt demand ideas and as the US harvest starts to come closer to reality. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. The Pro Farmer national Corn yield was estimated at 168.1 bushels per acre and this was considered very low. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 661, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 684, 690, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 364, 358, and 352 December, and resistance is at 4396, 418, and 424 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again s the us Dollar moved to new 20 year highs and hurt demand ideas. The market is increasingly worried about demand as China continues to lock down. Demand has improved lately but no one knows how long this can last and ideas are that overall demand is behind last year. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been improved. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian have been closed this week. Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1382 and 1326 November. Support is at 1384, 1376, and 1357 November, and resistance is at 1432, 1448, and 1484 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 415.00, and 401.00 October, and resistance is at 429.00 434.00, and 440.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6400 and 6080 October. Support is at 6390, 63200, and 6140 October, with resistance at 6720, 6930, and 7070 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weaker outside markets and on ideas of increasing production against only weak export interest. MPOB data will be released this week and will help direct the next move for the futures market. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong. Canola was lower with the price action in Chicago. The Canola growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 786.00, 746.00, and 724.00 November. Support is at 795.00, 779.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 857.00, and 870.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4000 and 3680 November. Support is at 3820, 3720, and 3650 November, with resistance at 4050, 4340, and 4380 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 1
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 815.40 -20.00 Nov. 2022 dn 8.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 847.00 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 23.40
Basis: Vancouver 867.00 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 23.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 987.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 982.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 987.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 990.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 985.00 -15.00 – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 910.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 680.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3950.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 310.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.483)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 132,585 lots, or 7.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,866 5,916 5,861 5,891 5,883 5,895 12 406 4,209
Nov-22 5,820 5,879 5,795 5,806 5,815 5,828 13 96,240 82,842
Jan-23 5,714 5,733 5,696 5,708 5,717 5,717 0 25,386 38,975
Mar-23 5,624 5,651 5,619 5,628 5,633 5,638 5 10,208 9,483
May-23 5,646 5,655 5,623 5,626 5,641 5,642 1 329 2,023
Jul-23 5,623 5,624 5,587 5,624 5,622 5,611 -11 16 336
Corn
Turnover: 470,730 lots, or 13.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,740 2,748 2,717 2,717 2,734 2,725 -9 11,161 20,717
Nov-22 2,775 2,779 2,756 2,761 2,771 2,767 -4 104,851 274,751
Jan-23 2,799 2,802 2,778 2,790 2,791 2,791 0 319,540 860,397
Mar-23 2,815 2,815 2,792 2,801 2,804 2,802 -2 16,419 158,937
May-23 2,844 2,849 2,829 2,839 2,843 2,839 -4 9,735 47,018
Jul-23 2,857 2,861 2,841 2,852 2,855 2,852 -3 9,024 32,746
Soymeal
Turnover: 979,938 lots, or 37.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,350 4,465 4,350 4,465 4,376 4,405 29 120 5,135
Nov-22 4,133 4,218 4,113 4,216 4,140 4,162 22 85,537 232,865
Dec-22 3,942 4,000 3,919 3,997 3,943 3,959 16 12,325 101,100
Jan-23 3,769 3,823 3,742 3,820 3,767 3,781 14 800,769 1,352,288
Mar-23 3,625 3,671 3,604 3,666 3,631 3,635 4 13,447 52,530
May-23 3,491 3,528 3,474 3,524 3,500 3,501 1 55,553 141,637
Jul-23 3,465 3,504 3,455 3,496 3,478 3,480 2 5,620 13,258
Aug-23 3,481 3,534 3,481 3,518 3,518 3,514 -4 6,567 5,608
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,022,245 lots, or 82.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,700 8,700 8,222 8,268 8,804 8,394 -410 395 1,163
Oct-22 8,302 8,406 8,068 8,166 8,582 8,222 -360 26,223 37,109
Nov-22 8,220 8,278 7,960 8,048 8,464 8,110 -354 20,591 69,586
Dec-22 8,170 8,202 7,908 7,988 8,436 8,048 -388 11,068 44,486
Jan-23 8,160 8,180 7,862 7,946 8,396 8,018 -378 935,464 394,495
Feb-23 8,170 8,194 7,882 7,956 8,422 8,040 -382 9,683 23,589
Mar-23 8,150 8,218 7,910 7,982 8,452 8,086 -366 5,522 12,351
Apr-23 8,182 8,242 7,932 7,988 8,334 8,040 -294 1,130 3,864
May-23 8,200 8,252 7,944 8,022 8,440 8,076 -364 12,149 21,905
Jun-23 8,278 8,278 8,020 8,020 8,418 8,106 -312 4 53
Jul-23 8,100 8,100 7,982 8,022 8,314 8,050 -264 11 71
Aug-23 8,088 8,088 8,000 8,034 8,366 8,048 -318 5 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 844,164 lots, or 78.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 9,902 10,680 9,900 10,200 10,500 10,188 -312 29 2,500
Nov-22 9,800 9,882 9,624 9,726 10,110 9,752 -358 32,983 77,616
Dec-22 9,542 9,610 9,360 9,456 9,854 9,484 -370 9,548 63,135
Jan-23 9,460 9,474 9,220 9,326 9,714 9,342 -372 777,260 413,977
Mar-23 9,098 9,098 8,844 8,930 9,256 8,964 -292 3,909 34,958
May-23 9,044 9,062 8,804 8,884 9,236 8,912 -324 8,515 30,460
Jul-23 8,902 8,964 8,726 8,794 9,140 8,868 -272 4,487 9,027
Aug-23 8,876 8,902 8,654 8,732 9,054 8,798 -256 7,433 6,191
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322