About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Thursday, September 01, 2022

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentins: Totals – Sep 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep 02, 2022 4 Aug 24, 2022
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 02, 2022 39 Jun 28, 2022
OATS September Sep 02, 2022 1 Jun 27, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 02, 2022 428 Aug 30, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and the trends are still turning up in Winter Wheat markets on the daily charts. Spring Wheat chart trends are still sideways. It appears that the harvest lows have finally been made in the Winter Wheat markets but Spring Wheat still needs to work higher and make the breakout.. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. That could be changing now as Russia has started to bomb export facilities in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian initiative to start to take control of the southern parts of the country again. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 876 December. Support is at 806, 783, and 774 December, with resistance at 849, 864, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 935 and 982 December. Support is at 885, 858, and 850 December, with resistance at 921, 956, and 989 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 878, and 863 December, and resistance is at 945, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: : Rice was higher again yesterday and maintained the breakout higher on the daily charts. The Texas harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi. Trends are turning up on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1806 and 1844 November. Support is at 1767, 1744, and 1713 November and resistance is at 1815, 1834, and 1848 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on follow through as USDA only lowered crop condition ratings by a point and less than the trade had expected. There are also increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. The Pro Farmer national Corn yield was estimated at 168.1 bushels per acre and this was considered very low. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 690, and 714 December. Support is at 661, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 684, 690, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 388, 370, and 364 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 435 December.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall Below Forecasts
By Kirk Maltais
Even with daily U.S. production of ethanol sliding, inventories of ethanol in the U.S. have fallen below analyst forecasts.
In its latest weekly report, the EIA said ethanol inventories totaled 23.53 million barrels for the week ended August 26. That’s down roughly 300,000 barrels from last week, and falls below analyst expectations. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast stocks to land anywhere between 23.7 million barrels and 24 million barrels.
Meanwhile, daily ethanol production totaled 970,000 barrels per day. That’s down from 987,000 barrels per day reported last week, and the lowest production has been since April. Analysts were forecasting production figures to land anywhere from 956,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again on follow through selling as USDA left the national Soybeans crop condition ratings basically unchanged. The market had expected a slight drop in the ratings. The market is increasingly worried about demand as China continues to lock down. Demand has improved lately but no one knows how long this can last and ideas are that overall demand is behind last year. The national yield estimate from Pro Farmer was 51.7 bushels per acre and this appears possible. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been improved. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian have been closed this week. Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought396,000 tons of US Soybeans..
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1408, 1400, and 1376 November, and resistance is at 1448, 1484, and 1489 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 415.00, and 401.00 October, and resistance is at 434.00 440.00, and 441.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6610, 6390, and 6200 October, with resistance at 6850, 72070, and 7150 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weaker outside markets anc on ideas of increasing production against only weak export interest. MPOB data will be released this week and will help direct the next move for the futures market. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong. Canola was lower with the price action in Chicago. The Canola growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 826.00, 819.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Up 0.3%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during Aug. 1-31 are estimated to have been up 0.3% on month at 1,309,801 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-31 July 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 385,070 308,070
RBD Palm Oil 76,523 128,030
RBD Palm Stearin 128,063 92,310
Crude Palm Oil 278,266 377,367
Total* 1,309,801 1,306,393
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group

DJ Malaysia August Palm Oil Exports Fell 2.96% on Month to 1,190,848 Tons, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for August are estimated to have fallen 2.96% from the previous month to 1,190,848 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-31 July 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 365,877 323,535
RBD Palm Oil 82,507 123,100
RBD Palm Stearin 121,188 102,250
Crude Palm Oil 294,005 375,179
Total* 1,190,848 1,227,118
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

September
145 Sep
170 Sep
130 Dec
250 Nov

October
148 Dec
210 Dec
130 Dec
210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 31
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 823.80 -20.00 Nov. 2022 up 5.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 870.40 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 8.40
Basis: Vancouver 890.40 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 8.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Your Name,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 987.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 997.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1007.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1010.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 930.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 695.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4050.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 312.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.479)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 171,332 lots, or 9.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,899 5,921 5,874 5,897 5,927 5,883 -44 539 4,224
Nov-22 5,835 5,859 5,780 5,835 5,856 5,815 -41 131,369 80,482
Jan-23 5,712 5,738 5,689 5,715 5,739 5,717 -22 24,086 38,209
Mar-23 5,604 5,653 5,604 5,630 5,644 5,633 -11 15,155 9,292
May-23 5,630 5,659 5,613 5,641 5,656 5,641 -15 181 1,920
Jul-23 5,618 5,626 5,618 5,626 5,635 5,622 -13 2 332
Corn
Turnover: 338,959 lots, or 9.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,734 2,750 2,725 2,750 2,734 2,734 0 7,733 31,083
Nov-22 2,765 2,780 2,759 2,778 2,770 2,771 1 59,667 272,489
Jan-23 2,785 2,802 2,777 2,799 2,789 2,791 2 234,364 875,458
Mar-23 2,797 2,812 2,790 2,812 2,801 2,804 3 16,717 157,952
May-23 2,834 2,852 2,828 2,847 2,835 2,843 8 9,508 47,146
Jul-23 2,852 2,863 2,847 2,858 2,853 2,855 2 10,970 31,150
Soymeal
Turnover: 748,888 lots, or 28.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,353 4,423 4,353 4,370 4,353 4,376 23 1,996 5,225
Nov-22 4,120 4,161 4,109 4,141 4,109 4,140 31 70,392 228,395
Dec-22 3,923 3,964 3,923 3,940 3,927 3,943 16 16,818 100,139
Jan-23 3,759 3,787 3,751 3,773 3,763 3,767 4 600,741 1,285,898
Mar-23 3,615 3,652 3,612 3,626 3,630 3,631 1 13,069 53,120
May-23 3,500 3,518 3,484 3,497 3,502 3,500 -2 35,236 141,085
Jul-23 3,463 3,495 3,463 3,473 3,475 3,478 3 5,903 13,587
Aug-23 3,529 3,535 3,503 3,508 3,521 3,518 -3 4,733 5,115
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,052,439 lots, or 88.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,770 8,906 8,500 8,520 8,770 8,804 34 1,728 1,392
Oct-22 8,648 8,752 8,360 8,420 8,650 8,582 -68 28,946 42,037
Nov-22 8,554 8,666 8,240 8,270 8,554 8,464 -90 17,913 68,808
Dec-22 8,506 8,606 8,174 8,220 8,490 8,436 -54 10,060 41,733
Jan-23 8,492 8,592 8,144 8,190 8,472 8,396 -76 965,601 385,647
Feb-23 8,540 8,610 8,170 8,208 8,496 8,422 -74 7,622 22,220
Mar-23 8,548 8,618 8,192 8,238 8,548 8,452 -96 8,609 11,731
Apr-23 8,584 8,634 8,214 8,260 8,524 8,334 -190 3,974 3,152
May-23 8,588 8,644 8,238 8,270 8,542 8,440 -102 7,982 17,790
Jun-23 – – – 8,418 8,678 8,418 -260 0 52
Jul-23 8,374 8,374 8,258 8,258 8,544 8,314 -230 4 63
Aug-23 – – – 8,366 8,574 8,366 -208 0 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 855,221 lots, or 83.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,502 10,600 10,128 10,128 10,502 10,500 -2 586 2,516
Nov-22 10,094 10,272 9,880 9,898 10,194 10,110 -84 35,455 77,439
Dec-22 9,906 10,004 9,626 9,640 9,948 9,854 -94 8,672 61,887
Jan-23 9,850 9,884 9,502 9,514 9,828 9,714 -114 778,681 421,544
Mar-23 9,448 9,476 9,122 9,132 9,438 9,256 -182 3,818 34,306
May-23 9,350 9,412 9,082 9,090 9,356 9,236 -120 8,508 28,256
Jul-23 9,268 9,316 8,976 8,996 9,280 9,140 -140 8,233 8,647
Aug-23 9,206 9,246 8,900 8,926 9,222 9,054 -168 11,268 5,351
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322