Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday and the trends remain sideways. The harvest is coming and rallies of last week got sold by some producers over the weekend and some speculators yesterday. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The USDA crop condition rating were a little lower again this week with the biggest problems still found in Texas. Conditions in Georgia and the rest of the Southeast and Delta appear to be mostly good to excellent. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 118.68 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 108.60, and 99.50 December, with resistance of 115.30, 118.50 and 119.60 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. A price recovery has continued this week. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. It has been dry in Brazil. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 and 183.00 November. Support is at 169.00, 166.00, and 162.00 November, with resistance at 178.00, 181.00, and 184.00 November.
General Comments: both markets were lower yesterday in correction trading. Trends are mixed or up on the daily charts in both markets and the rally should hold together longer term. Futures have come close to objectives for the short term. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.671 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 210.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 88 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,240 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 243.00 December. Support is at 234.00, 232.00, and 227.00 December, and resistance is at 243.00, 246.00 and 252.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2250 November, and resistance is at 2450, 2470, and 2500 November.
General Comments: New York and London were lower on what appeared to be end of the month fund and other speculator selling. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are sideways in both markets. Brazil is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as it is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1740 March and resistance is at 1830, 1850, and 1860 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 518.00, 512.00, and 506.00 December and resistance is at 525.00, 531.00, and 534.00 December.
General Comments: New York was a little lower yesterday and London was higher. Trends are turning up in London but are mixed in New York. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.670 million bags. ICE NY said that 51 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,003 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2500 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 and 1620 September. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1750 December, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 December.