About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep 01, 2022 205 Aug 24, 2022
WHEAT September Sep 01, 2022 558 Aug 29, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday but the markets all held support and the trends are still turning up in Winter Wheat markets on the daily charts. Spring Wheat chart trends are still sideways. It appears that the harvest lows have finally been made in the Winter Wheat markets but Spring Wheat still needs to work higher and make the breakout.. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 876 December. Support is at 813, 783, and 774 December, with resistance at 849, 864, and 913 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 935 and 982 December. Support is at 888, 858, and 850 December, with resistance at 921, 956, and 989 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 878, and 863 December, and resistance is at 945, 959, and 967 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday and made a breakout higher on the daily charts. The move could be s=considered very bullish after the dramatic meltdown and recovery in prices seen in the Monday trade. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1806 and 1844 November. Support is at 1744, 1713, and 1694 November and resistance is at 1787, 1815, and 1832 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 31
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.20 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.89 9.90 0.00
Brokens 8.84 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower as USDA only lowered crop condition ratings by a point and less than the trade had expected. Some selling came as September positions got rolled before First Notice Day today and the end of the month. The Pro Farmer national Corn yield was estimated at 168.1 bushels per acre and this was considered very low. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 690, and 714 December. Support is at 666, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 684, 690, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 392, 370, and 364 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 435 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again as USDA left the national Soybeans crop condition ratings basically unchanged. The market had expected a slight drop in the ratings. The national yield estimate from Pro Farmer was 51.7 bushels per acre and this appears possible. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been improved. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. Shenzhen and Dalian have been closed this week. Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News: China bought 167,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1408, 1400, and 1376 November, and resistance is at 1448, 1484, and 1489 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 415.00, and 401.00 October, and resistance is at 440.00 441.00, and 444.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6610, 6390, and 6200 October, with resistance at 6850, 72070, and 7150 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. MPOB data will be released this week and will help direct the next move for the futures market. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong. Canola was higher in Turnaround Tuesday trading The Canola growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 826.00, 819.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 145 Sep 170 Sep 130 Dec 250 Nov
September 145 Sep 170 Sep 130 Dec 250 Nov
October 148 Dec 210 Dec 130 Dec 210 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 818.50 -20.00 Nov. 2022 dn 17.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 878.80 35.00 Nov. 2022 up 5.30
Basis: Vancouver 898.80 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 10.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 126,562 lots, or .74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,980 5,980 5,900 5,900 5,980 5,927 -53 2,451 4,337
Nov-22 5,875 5,898 5,826 5,835 5,920 5,856 -64 90,045 77,588
Jan-23 5,750 5,765 5,706 5,741 5,779 5,739 -40 19,560 38,530
Mar-23 5,609 5,660 5,609 5,643 5,663 5,644 -19 14,063 9,858
May-23 5,653 5,684 5,639 5,656 5,673 5,656 -17 359 1,889
Jul-23 5,636 5,658 5,625 5,632 5,654 5,635 -19 84 333
Corn
Turnover: 507,124 lots, or 14.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,725 2,755 2,720 2,751 2,733 2,734 1 25,870 78,160
Nov-22 2,764 2,786 2,751 2,775 2,773 2,770 -3 87,856 264,442
Jan-23 2,788 2,807 2,772 2,797 2,796 2,789 -7 351,017 866,209
Mar-23 2,808 2,814 2,788 2,805 2,808 2,801 -7 23,567 156,522
May-23 2,835 2,849 2,822 2,845 2,841 2,835 -6 6,801 46,454
Jul-23 2,852 2,864 2,839 2,861 2,854 2,853 -1 12,013 30,181
Soymeal
Turnover: 649,023 lots, or 24.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,299 4,402 4,284 4,395 4,271 4,353 82 31,084 5,638
Nov-22 4,090 4,142 4,075 4,141 4,106 4,109 3 54,258 228,395
Dec-22 3,909 3,961 3,899 3,956 3,935 3,927 -8 17,386 97,550
Jan-23 3,741 3,793 3,732 3,789 3,767 3,763 -4 486,270 1,241,723
Mar-23 3,607 3,659 3,603 3,650 3,630 3,630 0 16,611 53,150
May-23 3,478 3,529 3,475 3,521 3,508 3,502 -6 30,450 138,388
Jul-23 3,461 3,503 3,456 3,499 3,485 3,475 -10 7,957 13,421
Aug-23 3,510 3,544 3,499 3,511 3,526 3,521 -5 5,007 4,879
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,881 lots, or 67.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,740 8,864 8,682 8,798 8,850 8,770 -80 21,657 2,965
Oct-22 8,588 8,758 8,518 8,720 8,640 8,650 10 17,620 52,461
Nov-22 8,502 8,672 8,416 8,660 8,556 8,554 -2 12,808 64,757
Dec-22 8,412 8,610 8,366 8,600 8,510 8,490 -20 9,205 39,435
Jan-23 8,400 8,606 8,346 8,588 8,502 8,472 -30 722,239 362,312
Feb-23 8,462 8,624 8,376 8,612 8,524 8,496 -28 9,945 20,974
Mar-23 8,412 8,638 8,402 8,620 8,566 8,548 -18 3,208 10,084
Apr-23 8,516 8,588 8,516 8,588 8,544 8,524 -20 8 103
May-23 8,500 8,670 8,426 8,660 8,610 8,542 -68 3,186 15,712
Jun-23 – – – 8,678 8,678 8,678 0 0 52
Jul-23 8,544 8,544 8,544 8,544 8,518 8,544 26 1 59
Aug-23 8,576 8,576 8,572 8,572 8,576 8,574 -2 4 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 563,533 lots, or 55.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,450 10,600 10,430 10,580 10,554 10,502 -52 13,986 3,005
Nov-22 10,172 10,294 10,124 10,282 10,256 10,194 -62 27,654 77,860
Dec-22 9,916 10,042 9,864 10,026 10,000 9,948 -52 8,358 61,274
Jan-23 9,800 9,942 9,732 9,918 9,872 9,828 -44 496,482 400,153
Mar-23 9,338 9,536 9,332 9,498 9,454 9,438 -16 3,547 33,896
May-23 9,326 9,468 9,282 9,440 9,394 9,356 -38 4,199 27,308
Jul-23 9,242 9,374 9,184 9,340 9,296 9,280 -16 4,817 7,662
Aug-23 9,230 9,300 9,112 9,272 9,230 9,222 -8 4,490 3,657
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322