About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and the trends remain sideways. The harvest is coming and rallies of last week got sold by some producers over the weekend and some speculators yesterday. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The USDA crop condition rating were a little lower again this week with the biggest problems still found in Texas. Conditions in Georgia and the rest of the Southeast and Delta appear to be mostly good to excellent. The Chinese quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 124.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 108.60, and 99.50 December, with resistance of 118.50, 119.60 and 120.40 December.

Crop Progress
Date 31-Jul 24-Jul 2021 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 94 88 85 91
Cotton Bolls Opening 28 16 20 24
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 17 19 30 29 5
Cotton Last Week 18 22 29 26 5
Cotton Last Year 1 5 24 55 15

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. A price recovery has continued this week. The recent market weakness has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 177.00, 182.00, and 184.00 September. Support is at 173.00, 170.00, and 167.00 September, with resistance at 179.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower yesterday in correction trading from the up moves of last week. London was closed. Trends are mixed or up on the daily charts in both markets. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.663 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 212.05 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,172 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 243.00 December. Support is at 232.00, 227.00, and 223.00 December, and resistance is at 243.00, 246.00 and 252.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2250 November, and resistance is at 2450, 2470, and 2500 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little higher yesterday and London was closed. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are turning up in New York and in London. Brazil is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as it is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1860, 1880, and 1920 October. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1780 October and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1920 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 575.00, 579.00, and 595.00 October. Support is at 555.00, 542.00, and 538.00 October and resistance is at 564.00, 570.00, and 576.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was mostly a little lower yesterday and London was closed. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year but the market is trying to hold the recent lows. Trends are turning up in both markets. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 2.013 million tons for the current marketing year, down 4.1% from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.691 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 952 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2500 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 and 1620 September. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1750 December, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322