About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 29
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 29, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 25, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/25/2022 08/18/2022 08/26/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 147 147 0 1,214 6,550
CORN 689,052 821,533 583,498 54,591,210 66,055,694
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 48
OATS 0 798 0 6,386 100
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 22,471 43,381 76,856 7,424,226 7,104,020
SOYBEANS 436,851 686,827 387,206 56,444,476 59,402,860
SUNFLOWER 288 432 0 3,316 240
WHEAT 520,791 594,273 435,399 5,014,620 6,203,627
Total 1,669,600 2,147,391 1,482,959 123,485,448 138,773,163
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 31-Jul 24-Jul 2021 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 94 88 85 91
Cotton Bolls Opening 28 16 20 24
Corn Dough 86 75 90 88
Corn Dented 46 31 56 52
Corn Mature 8 4 8 9
Soybeans Setting Pods 91 84 92 92
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 4 5 7
Sorghum Headed 88 79 94 93
Sorghum Coloring 48 37 57 53
Sorghum Mature 23 20 23 25
Sorghum Harvested 18 18 20
Rice Headed 96 93 96 98
Rice Harvested 18 15 18 21
Oats Harvested 80 70 91 87
Winter Wheat Harvested 82 778 90 85
Spring Wheat Harvested 50 33 86 71
Barley Harvested 82 44 83 76

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 17 19 30 29 5
Cotton Last Week 18 22 29 26 5
Cotton Last Year 1 5 24 55 15

Corn This Week 8 11 27 42 12
Corn Last Week 7 11 27 43 12
Corn Last Year 4 10 26 46 14

Soybeans This Week 4 9 30 46 11
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 30 47 10
Soybeans Last Year 5 10 29 45 11

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 26 58 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 7 28 56 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 28 35 26 10 1

Sorghum This Week 16 28 35 19 2
Sorghum Last Week 14 25 35 23 2
Sorghum Last Year 3 9 30 49 9

Rice This Week 1 3 26 53 17
Rice Last Week 0 3 25 55 17
Rice Last Year 1 2 28 62 15

Peanuts This Week 1 4 26 59 10
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 26 59 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 2 21 64 12

Barley This Week 4 11 29 47 9
Barley Last Week 3 12 31 46 8
Barley Last Year 25 26 26 19 4

Pastures and Ranges This Week 22 24 29 21 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 25 24 28 20 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 21 23 28 23 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and the trends started to turn up in Winter Wheat markets on the daily charts. Spring Wheat chart trends are still sideways. It appears that the harvest lows have finally been made in the Winter Wheat markets but Spring Wheat still needs to work higher and make the breakout.. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 830 and 868 September. Support is at 792, 764, and 757 September, with resistance at 846, 854, and 904 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 923, 958, and 965 September. Support is at 889, 862, and 8247 September, with resistance at 948, 978, and 988 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 901, 878, and 865 September, and resistance is at 947, 956, and 999 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday after a dramatic move lower on Sunday night. It looks like some stops were hit one futures broke through initial support and there was just nothing to buy in the market to hold the selling. The marker recovered very quickly and the losses at the close were minor. The charts are in mostly a sideways mode but appear to have rejected a move to lower prices. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1707, 1695, and 1685 September and resistance is at 1733, 1747, and 1754 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher in response to bullish production estimates from Pro Farmer and on ideas that USDA would lower its crop ratings in the reports that were released last night. The crop tour rated South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana at below last year and the three year average. Iowa crops were also below the three year average and last year. The eastern leg of the tour found average yield potential in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana but below average yield potential for Indiana as a whole. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Minnesota crops were rated above last year and the three year average and was the only state to be so rated. The Pro Farmer national Corn yield was estimated at 168.1 bushels per acre Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 691, 710, and 711 September. Support is at 671, 655, and 6340 September, and resistance is at 684, 690, and 695 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 404, 398, and 392 September, and resistance is at 430, 432, and 443 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower to start the week based on the yield estimates released by Pro Farmer after the close on Friday. The tour did not predict yields for Soybeans, but it did count pods in a 3 foot by 3 foot square. The counts showed potential for poor crops in South Dakota but above average crops in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Tour participants rated the Soybeans counts in Nebraska as below last year but in line with the three year average. Iowa crops were also below last year and the three year average. Indiana counts were below last year and the three year average. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Minnesota crops were rated above last year and the three year average and were the only crops so rated. The national yield estimate from Pro Farmer was 51.7 bushels per acre. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been improved. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, there was talk on Friday that the Chinese government is about to lift controls and end its zero tolerance policy to create new economic growth. This talk has not been confirmed. Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1612 1632, and 1668 September. Support is at 1550, 1537, and 1521 September, and resistance is at 1613, 1620, and 1632 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 488.00 September. Support is at 469.00, 458.00, and 456.00 September, and resistance is at 488.00 495.00, and 498.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7710 September. Support is at 6980, 6790, and 6540 September, with resistance at 7250, 7290, and 7440 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today with the price action in Chicago. MPOB data will be released this week and will help direct the next move for the futures market. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong. Canola was lower along with Chicago Soybean Oil and on the StatsCan production estimates. The report used a computer based model to predict production at 19.5 million tons, above 18.4 million in an earlier estimate and 13.76 million last year. Soybean Oil has been the strongest of the world vegetable oils markets despite a strong US Dollar as ideas are that Soybeans production can be less this year The Canola growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 826.00, 819.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

September
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

October
144 Dec
215 Dec
135 Dec
190 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 835.80 -20.00 Nov. 2022 up 22.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 873.50 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 17.30
Basis: Vancouver 888.50 50.00 Nov. 2022 dn 17.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1007.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1012.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1022.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1010.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1015.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 945.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 710.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4150.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 315.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.474)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,825 lots, or 6.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,963 6,002 5,962 5,969 5,963 5,980 17 2,320 5,282
Nov-22 5,927 5,979 5,886 5,893 5,930 5,920 -10 90,906 81,155
Jan-23 5,786 5,817 5,754 5,765 5,771 5,779 8 20,041 39,351
Mar-23 5,689 5,699 5,647 5,656 5,661 5,663 2 4,262 9,571
May-23 5,687 5,692 5,659 5,674 5,663 5,673 10 243 1,748
Jul-23 5,660 5,662 5,640 5,642 5,632 5,654 22 53 285
Corn
Turnover: 373,743 lots, or 10.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,739 2,746 2,727 2,728 2,731 2,733 2 20,996 84,459
Nov-22 2,785 2,785 2,765 2,766 2,764 2,773 9 60,990 264,592
Jan-23 2,804 2,805 2,788 2,792 2,784 2,796 12 261,373 875,933
Mar-23 2,820 2,820 2,799 2,804 2,796 2,808 12 16,368 156,129
May-23 2,841 2,849 2,831 2,839 2,831 2,841 10 5,722 45,919
Jul-23 2,855 2,862 2,843 2,853 2,842 2,854 12 8,294 29,553
Soymeal
Turnover: 701,505 lots, or 2.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,280 4,316 4,244 4,313 4,282 4,271 -11 24,143 28,630
Nov-22 4,143 4,160 4,074 4,108 4,132 4,106 -26 51,790 226,578
Dec-22 3,960 3,984 3,895 3,929 3,954 3,935 -19 16,937 97,657
Jan-23 3,800 3,807 3,733 3,762 3,789 3,767 -22 550,364 1,215,303
Mar-23 3,666 3,673 3,607 3,631 3,652 3,630 -22 10,302 53,175
May-23 3,530 3,536 3,483 3,499 3,521 3,508 -13 39,512 134,955
Jul-23 3,499 3,509 3,462 3,475 3,496 3,485 -11 6,294 12,830
Aug-23 3,537 3,544 3,501 3,515 3,518 3,526 8 2,163 4,548
Palm Oil
Turnover: 888,518 lots, or 75.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,914 8,934 8,736 8,780 8,876 8,850 -26 27,035 16,577
Oct-22 8,750 8,766 8,528 8,608 8,690 8,640 -50 21,768 54,676
Nov-22 8,652 8,682 8,436 8,490 8,608 8,556 -52 8,556 62,448
Dec-22 8,610 8,626 8,386 8,454 8,540 8,510 -30 5,993 38,222
Jan-23 8,616 8,636 8,368 8,446 8,554 8,502 -52 814,119 341,325
Feb-23 8,628 8,650 8,388 8,462 8,566 8,524 -42 5,490 19,913
Mar-23 8,642 8,660 8,424 8,488 8,584 8,566 -18 614 9,725
Apr-23 8,582 8,582 8,472 8,472 8,698 8,544 -154 3 98
May-23 8,652 8,712 8,480 8,532 8,628 8,610 -18 4,934 15,523
Jun-23 – – – 8,678 8,812 8,678 -134 0 52
Jul-23 8,614 8,634 8,376 8,510 8,636 8,518 -118 6 59
Aug-23 – – – 8,576 8,734 8,576 -158 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 597,767 lots, or 59.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,632 10,632 10,444 10,524 10,470 10,554 84 17,034 12,236
Nov-22 10,298 10,350 10,176 10,198 10,272 10,256 -16 20,069 76,910
Dec-22 10,078 10,088 9,910 9,948 10,016 10,000 -16 4,202 60,587
Jan-23 9,968 9,976 9,772 9,824 9,932 9,872 -60 544,493 379,360
Mar-23 9,564 9,564 9,358 9,420 9,530 9,454 -76 1,854 33,696
May-23 9,490 9,506 9,292 9,370 9,480 9,394 -86 6,492 27,651
Jul-23 9,406 9,416 9,210 9,274 9,394 9,296 -98 1,899 7,395
Aug-23 9,320 9,338 9,136 9,200 9,328 9,230 -98 1,724 3,507
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322