About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and trends are trying to turn up in this market but so far the trends remain sideways. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The USDA crop condition rating were a little lower again this week with the biggest problems still found in Texas. Conditions in Georgia and the rest of the Southeast and Delta appear to be mostly good to excellent. The Chinese had been reopening the economy and country lately as Covid faded, but some reports of a new variant found there could shut the country down again in the near term. The quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. The cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan are all subject to lockdowns of one type or another. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 125.05 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 108.60, and 99.50 December, with resistance of 117.40, 119.60 and 120.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 288,628
: Positions :
: 44,908 24,106 74,982 68,771 170,906 83,816 9,389 272,477 279,382: 16,151 9,246
: Changes from: August 16, 2022 (Change in open interest: -5,295) :
: 3,569 736 -10,034 692 5,313 240 -697 -5,532 -4,681: 238 -613
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 8.4 26.0 23.8 59.2 29.0 3.3 94.4 96.8: 5.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 56 86 58 67 48 17 232 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. A price recovery has started as the harvest winds down. The recent market weakness has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 177.00, 182.00, and 184.00 September. Support is at 170.00, 167.00, and 165.00 September, with resistance at 179.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,642 :
: Positions :
: 1,533 9,379 2,561 0 7 3,793 62 79 806 426 895 :
: Changes from: August 16, 2022 :
: -40 -701 -66 0 -14 -568 0 -31 -56 -30 -532 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 80.6 22.0 0.0 0.1 32.6 0.5 0.7 6.9 3.7 7.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 10 12 6 0 . 25 . 4 7 7 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week on renewed fund and other speculator buying interest. Some speculative long liquidation was noted late in the week before the end of the month. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. Certified stocks keep dropping but GCA stocks are holding strong. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.658 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 212.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 628 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,172 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 243.00 December. Support is at 232.00, 227.00, and 223.00 December, and resistance is at 242.00, 246.00 and 252.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2250 November, and resistance is at 2450, 2470, and 2500 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 227,732
: Positions :
: 32,523 8,746 58,711 72,745 140,292 53,865 11,745 217,845 219,494: 9,887 8,237
: Changes from: August 16, 2022 (Change in open interest: 328) :
: 3,949 -981 532 -4,383 531 406 165 504 247: -177 80
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 3.8 25.8 31.9 61.6 23.7 5.2 95.7 96.4: 4.3 3.6
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 63 101 103 113 48 25 316 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/23/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
133,223 65,407 89,768 1,378 10,912 3,111
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.1% 67.4% 1.0% 8.2% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 39 41 6 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,465 2,608 5,888 3,936 2,863 14,642
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.4% 2.0% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 11.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 8 16 15 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,396 3,431
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 2.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week on what appeared to be speculative selling based on production data from Unica in Brazil. Unica estimated the Sugar production at about 2.97 million tons, above trade estimates near 2.84 million. Sugarcane crushed totaled 46.34 million tons. The selling in these markets has been relentless for the last week to 10 days. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are down in New York and in London. Brazil is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as it is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. The production mix could change in the short term to include more Sugar. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. Monsoon rains have been good in India this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1860, 1880, and 1920 October. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1780 October and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1920 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 575.00, 579.00, and 595.00 October. Support is at 555.00, 542.00, and 538.00 October and resistance is at 564.00, 570.00, and 576.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 900,697
: Positions :
: 74,858 105,049 192,921 324,364 479,953 240,838 57,014 832,982 834,937: 67,716 65,760
: Changes from: August 16, 2022 (Change in open interest: 14,360) :
: 5,511 -1,973 5,021 8,353 5,653 -431 -226 18,454 8,475: -4,094 5,885
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 11.7 21.4 36.0 53.3 26.7 6.3 92.5 92.7: 7.5 7.3
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 63 77 72 69 38 20 214 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/23/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
77,861 26,426 63,326 6,797 3,061 2,806
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.9% 81.3% 8.7% 3.9% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
115 35 33 7 5 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,443 1,764 3,240 2,665 670 764
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.5% 2.3% 4.2% 3.4% 0.9% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 5 20 6 5 2
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,720 2,230
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.6% 2.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower last week. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year but the market is trying to hold the recent lows. Trends are turning up in both markets. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 2.013 million tons for the current marketing year, down 4.1% from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.726 million bags. ICE NY said that 482 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 952 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2500 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 and 1620 September. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1750 December, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 342,271
: Positions :
: 51,094 75,540 81,712 135,227 138,642 59,133 35,700 327,166 331,595: 15,106 10,677
: Changes from: August 16, 2022 (Change in open interest: -1,953) :
: -616 1,507 1,965 -4,072 -4,065 -74 -868 -2,797 -1,461: 844 -492
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 22.1 23.9 39.5 40.5 17.3 10.4 95.6 96.9: 4.4 3.1
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 89 77 53 39 32 22 208 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/23/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
295,487 178,191 183,860 27,437 32,060 18,906
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 60.3% 62.2% 9.3% 10.8% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 50 42 12 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,462 17,918 9,798 9,196 4,090 25,025
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.9% 6.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.4% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 18 18 9 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,472 3,830
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322