About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on a disappointing weekly export sales report. Demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 757, 744, and 727 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 847, 830, and 820 September, with resistance at 915, 948, and 978 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 880, 865, and 852 September, and resistance is at 947, 956, and 999 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little lower yesterday in choppy trading. It looked like the buying ran out and some long liquidation hit the pit to keep the charts in mostly a sideways mode. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1707, 1695, and 1685 September and resistance is at 1747, 1754, and 1758 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on a disappointing weekly export sales report and as there was little in the way of bullish news for the day. Corn followed Soybeans and Wheat lower. South Dakota yield potential was rated as below last year and the five year average. The crop tour rated Nebraska and Indiana at below last year and the average as well. Iowa crops were also below the three year average and last year. The eastern leg of the tour found above average yield potential in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana but below average yield potential for Indiana as a whole. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 654, 640, and 632 September, and resistance is at 6176, 684, and 6390 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 404, 4398, and 392 September, and resistance is at 430, 432, and 443 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as some long liquidation hit the pits after the move higher early in the week. The move came despite a very strong weekly export sales report. Worse than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA as well as the crop tour results from the Pro Farmer crop tour remain the best support for futures. The tour does not predict yields for Soybeans, but it does count pods in a 3 foot by one foot rectangle. The counts showed potential for poor crops in South Dakota but above average crops in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Tour participants rated the Soybeans counts in Nebraska as below last year but in line with the three year average. Iowa crops were also below last year and the three year average. Indiana counts were below last year and the three year average. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been very strong with the purchase of over 500,000 tons of new crop Soybeans by the Chinese this week. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. \Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 146,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1537, 1521, and 1516 September, and resistance is at 1600, 1607, and 1620 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 451.00, and 446.00 September, and resistance is at 474.00 480.00, and 486.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7710 September. Support is at 6790, 6540, and 6480 September, with resistance at 7040, 7090, and 7250 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today on what was called speculative long liquidation before the weekend and MPOB data to be released next week. Ideas are that supply and demand will be strong. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with Chicago. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 879.00, 958.00, and 1091.00 November. Support is at 819.00, 795.00, and 779.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

September
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

October
144 Dec
215 Dec
135 Dec
190 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 830.40 -20.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 878.60 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
Basis: Vancouver 893.60 50.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1017.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1022.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1032.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1020.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1025.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1035.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 720.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4250.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 310.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.467)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 210,905 lots, or 12.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,905 5,991 5,903 5,970 5,925 5,958 33 27,931 9,872
Nov-22 5,860 5,976 5,844 5,948 5,832 5,929 97 139,441 90,363
Jan-23 5,664 5,784 5,661 5,770 5,663 5,739 76 36,799 37,915
Mar-23 5,562 5,664 5,562 5,657 5,565 5,618 53 6,348 9,286
May-23 5,630 5,653 5,550 5,653 5,580 5,620 40 362 1,731
Jul-23 5,576 5,618 5,559 5,606 5,557 5,584 27 24 233
Corn
Turnover: 502,549 lots, or 13.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,715 2,753 2,710 2,751 2,708 2,741 33 48,714 124,159
Nov-22 2,704 2,749 2,699 2,744 2,718 2,728 10 76,966 259,801
Jan-23 2,726 2,768 2,725 2,759 2,739 2,746 7 333,633 809,085
Mar-23 2,735 2,782 2,735 2,773 2,755 2,762 7 24,997 158,092
May-23 2,773 2,818 2,771 2,808 2,784 2,799 15 9,110 40,298
Jul-23 2,785 2,822 2,780 2,818 2,790 2,804 14 9,129 26,304
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,028,754 lots, or 39.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,302 4,314 4,249 4,261 4,325 4,284 -41 71,403 56,899
Nov-22 4,170 4,186 4,099 4,101 4,210 4,142 -68 97,379 232,395
Dec-22 3,983 3,994 3,919 3,929 4,023 3,955 -68 19,995 96,673
Jan-23 3,808 3,814 3,756 3,773 3,846 3,784 -62 761,101 1,246,412
Mar-23 3,665 3,666 3,617 3,631 3,704 3,638 -66 7,840 51,855
May-23 3,540 3,540 3,487 3,500 3,574 3,507 -67 55,908 128,721
Jul-23 3,490 3,509 3,464 3,473 3,544 3,482 -62 11,050 12,825
Aug-23 3,516 3,516 3,469 3,480 3,545 3,491 -54 4,078 4,242
Palm Oil
Turnover: 848,635 lots, or 73.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,786 8,974 8,740 8,928 8,826 8,878 52 42,961 39,200
Oct-22 8,678 8,812 8,622 8,746 8,724 8,730 6 18,818 59,451
Nov-22 8,640 8,746 8,576 8,652 8,696 8,666 -30 8,902 60,548
Dec-22 8,618 8,700 8,532 8,608 8,668 8,618 -50 6,228 37,045
Jan-23 8,584 8,710 8,514 8,622 8,648 8,622 -26 762,897 332,912
Feb-23 8,600 8,744 8,556 8,660 8,688 8,650 -38 5,393 19,654
Mar-23 8,662 8,756 8,582 8,674 8,696 8,676 -20 368 9,672
Apr-23 8,676 8,726 8,676 8,708 8,696 8,698 2 5 97
May-23 8,724 8,806 8,632 8,714 8,752 8,728 -24 3,063 13,722
Jun-23 – – – 8,812 8,812 8,812 0 0 52
Jul-23 – – – 8,710 8,710 8,710 0 0 57
Aug-23 – – – 8,734 8,734 8,734 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 600,251 lots, or 5.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,368 10,456 10,346 10,436 10,380 10,404 24 35,369 27,996
Nov-22 10,266 10,350 10,222 10,266 10,304 10,292 -12 17,468 75,180
Dec-22 10,052 10,112 9,976 10,020 10,078 10,058 -20 3,763 59,831
Jan-23 9,932 10,018 9,870 9,928 9,986 9,946 -40 529,688 371,050
Mar-23 9,550 9,606 9,486 9,534 9,600 9,546 -54 4,220 33,187
May-23 9,508 9,564 9,456 9,478 9,562 9,506 -56 6,178 27,153
Jul-23 9,456 9,490 9,368 9,400 9,492 9,412 -80 1,701 6,912
Aug-23 9,378 9,418 9,292 9,340 9,426 9,344 -82 1,864 3,114
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322