Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in range trading. Chart trends remain sideways for the short term. It appeared to be a long liquidation day for speculators as the recent uptrend has stalled out. There is also talk of new farm selling showing after the recent rally. USDA showed that crop conditions deteriorated in the last week but also showed more than expected planted acreage from the certified data that USDA has received from farmers. A strong US Dollar this week is also noted as bearish for Cotton futures. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. Chinese economic data for July was released and kept reasons for worry about Chinese demand alive. The Chinese had been reopening the economy and country lately as Covid faded, but some reports of a new variant found there could shut the country down again in the near term. The quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. The cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan are all subject to lockdowns of one type or another. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 121.93 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 1.909 million bales this year and 203,900 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 108.60, and 99.50 December, with resistance of 117.40, 119.60 and 120.40 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower, and trends are still mixed to down on the daily charts. A price recovery has stalled and prices have worked lower for the last week. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Now it is turning too dry in Brazil so conditions could start to turn worse. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 162.00 September, with resistance at 173.00, 175.00, and 179.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday on general buying tied to fears about the production potential of the next Brazilian crop. It rained a few weeks ago and some premature flowering was seen. Now it has turned much drier and there is no rain in the forecast for at least the next week. There are fears that flowers and cherries will be aborted. Trends are up in both markets. Certified stocks are now increasing and GCA stocks are holding strong. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. Even so, stocks levels are starting to increase in New York and remain generally high in the US. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are about higher today at 0.663 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 214.72 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 25 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 243.00 December. Support is at 232.00, 227.00, and 223.00 December, and resistance is at 239.00, 240.00 and 246.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2220 September, and resistance is at 2470, 2480, and 2510 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in consolidation trading. UNICA estimated Brazilian Sugar production at 2.63 million tons for the first half of August, down 12% from a year ago. Production ideas by trade participants had been nearer to 2.85 million tons. The New York market is worried that the lack of clarity about production as private analysts expect stronger production than CONAB. CONAB had forecast the lower production in a decade in reports released last week. Russian Sugar beets weighed 467 grams in August, up from 408 grams in August of last year. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are mixed in New York and mixed in London.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1760 October and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1920 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 545.00, 538.00, and 531.00 October and resistance is at 558.00, 564.00, and 570.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday after holding above recent lows. It appeared to be mostly a short covering rally by speculators with little found for sale on the way up. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year but the market is trying to hold the recent lows. Trends are turning down in both markets. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from recent light showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.736 million bags. ICE NY said that 20 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 20 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2100 and 2020 September. Support is at 2300, 2260, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2380, 2410, and 2470 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 and 1620 September. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 September, with resistance at 1760, 1770, and 1780 September.