About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 25
For the week ended Aug 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 409.6 0.0 9222.6 9128.0 5635.6 30.0
hrw 12.2 0.0 2646.3 3251.6 1463.0 0.0
srw 247.8 0.0 1858.5 1599.4 1081.5 30.0
hrs 65.5 0.0 2565.8 2583.1 1529.0 0.0
white 84.3 0.0 2024.9 1643.2 1469.1 0.0
durum -0.2 0.0 127.2 50.6 93.0 0.0
corn 320.0 155.3 61269.5 70324.2 3214.7 8953.6
soybeans 503.7 4693.0 60061.9 62159.9 4205.1 21738.8
soymeal 76.0 -2.2 11830.8 12062.2 1364.6 1424.9
soyoil -0.2 0.1 695.0 686.5 47.0 0.7
upland cotton 1909.8 203.9 9183.2 5463.9 8729.9 913.7
pima cotton -0.3 0.0 96.9 138.6 89.1 0.0
sorghum 0.0 0.0 6976.4 7134.6 96.7 203.2
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 25.3 11.7 0.0
rice 30.4 0.0 344.9 645.2 297.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday and futures are still back inside the recent trading ranges after the moves lower late last week. A drop in the US crop condition ratings was supportive to futures prices but demand needs to improve as export sales have not been strong for the last year despite weaker production for much of the world and the war in Ukraine that has held up shipments of Wheat from there and from Russia until recently. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat sales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 757, 744, and 727 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 847, 830, and 820 September, with resistance at 915, 948, and 978 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 880, 865, and 852 September, and resistance is at 947, 956, and 999 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher but faded and closed a little lower to unchanged. It looked like the buying ran out and some long liquidation hit the pit to keep the charts in mostly a sideways mode The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1719, 1695, and 1685 September and resistance is at 1747, 1754, and 1758 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mostly higher as the lower than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA on Monday as well as some bad production data from the Pro Farmer crop tour was still influencing the market. South Dakota yield potential was rated as below last year and the five year average. The crop tour rated Nebraska and Indiana at below last year and the average as well. Iowa crops were also bllow the three year average and last year. The eastern leg of the tour found above average yield potential in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana but below average yield potential for Indiana as a whole. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 710 September. Support is at 654, 640, and 632 September, and resistance is at 6176, 684, and 6390 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 404, 4398, and 392 September, and resistance is at 430, 432, and 443 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower but Soybean Meal was higher yesterday as some long liquidation hit the pits after the move higher early in the week. Worse than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA as well as the crop tour results from the Pro Farmer crop tour remain the best support for futures. The tour does not predict yields for Soybeans, but it does count pods in a 3 foot by one foot rectangle. The counts showed potential for poor crops in South Dakota but above average crops in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Tour participants rated the Soybeans counts in Nebraska as below last year but in line with the three year average. Iowa crops were also below last year and the three year average. Indiana counts were below last year and the three year average. Illinois crops were below last year but above the three year average. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest as demand has been very strong with the purchase of over 500,000 tons of new crop Soybeans by the Chinese this week. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. \Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker. Brazil is still selling Soybeans as well, but for now the Chinese appear to be buying here. There is still a chance for weaker demand for US Soybeans once the Chinese demand is satisfied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1612 September. Support is at 1557, 1537, and 1521 September, and resistance is at 1600, 1607, and 1620 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 488.00 September. Support is at 461.00, 456.00, and 451.00 September, and resistance is at 474.00 480.00, and 486.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7710 September. Support is at 6790, 6540, and 6480 September, with resistance at 7040, 7090, and 7250 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil wasa little lower today onthe competing markets and inrange trading. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 879.00, 958.00, and 1091.00 November. Support is at 819.00, 795.00, and 779.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

DJ Malaysia August 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Down 0.1%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the August 1-25 period are estimated down 0.1% on month at 969,341 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-25 July 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 290,217 222,755
RBD Palm Oil 55,838 79,860
RBD Palm Stearin 96,601 75,420
Crude Palm Oil 205,866 262,132
Total* 969,341 970,243
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia Aug.1-25 Palm Oil Exports Rise 4.8% to 906,470 Tons, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug.1-25 period are estimated up 4.8% on month at 906,470 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-25 July 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 284,652 221,625
RBD Palm Oil 63,072 73,140
RBD Palm Stearin 97,825 80,360
Crude Palm Oil 230,105 252,384
Total* 906,470 864,563
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

September
135 Sep
170 Sep
120 Sep
230 Nov

October
144 Dec
215 Dec
135 Dec
190 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 830.40 -20.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 878.60 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
Basis: Vancouver 893.60 50.00 Nov. 2022 dn 6.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1027.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1047.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1057.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1050.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1060.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 960.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 730.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4300.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 310.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.471)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 170,400 lots, or 9.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,911 5,969 5,873 5,933 5,959 5,925 -34 66,621 19,957
Nov-22 5,849 5,870 5,796 5,860 5,856 5,832 -24 80,813 71,052
Jan-23 5,650 5,686 5,648 5,677 5,671 5,663 -8 17,204 39,542
Mar-23 5,547 5,578 5,544 5,573 5,558 5,565 7 5,419 9,240
May-23 5,575 5,596 5,560 5,584 5,552 5,580 28 267 1,618
Jul-23 5,544 5,570 5,544 5,570 5,524 5,557 33 76 240
Corn
Turnover: 498,273 lots, or 1.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,728 2,728 2,693 2,720 2,710 2,708 -2 29,973 133,754
Nov-22 2,736 2,736 2,698 2,706 2,725 2,718 -7 78,653 254,094
Jan-23 2,755 2,759 2,718 2,726 2,745 2,739 -6 351,985 801,740
Mar-23 2,772 2,773 2,736 2,742 2,764 2,755 -9 23,133 155,463
May-23 2,799 2,802 2,767 2,775 2,789 2,784 -5 7,427 38,428
Jul-23 2,801 2,804 2,773 2,780 2,784 2,790 6 7,102 24,161
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,058,946 lots, or 41.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,355 4,367 4,290 4,332 4,333 4,325 -8 112,806 89,222
Nov-22 4,247 4,255 4,179 4,200 4,212 4,210 -2 80,125 231,699
Dec-22 4,050 4,070 3,987 4,008 4,017 4,023 6 19,243 95,815
Jan-23 3,890 3,898 3,809 3,832 3,864 3,846 -18 771,592 1,244,480
Mar-23 3,742 3,748 3,668 3,686 3,712 3,704 -8 5,914 51,205
May-23 3,606 3,618 3,541 3,558 3,556 3,574 18 55,378 125,006
Jul-23 3,577 3,588 3,514 3,528 3,556 3,544 -12 10,388 11,427
Aug-23 3,576 3,588 3,512 3,528 3,560 3,545 -15 3,500 4,066
Palm Oil
Turnover: 844,007 lots, or 73.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,826 8,940 8,754 8,822 8,798 8,826 28 42,859 48,771
Oct-22 8,714 8,820 8,648 8,734 8,704 8,724 20 21,397 60,716
Nov-22 8,704 8,794 8,622 8,680 8,674 8,696 22 10,956 59,652
Dec-22 8,698 8,770 8,582 8,640 8,634 8,668 34 7,268 36,418
Jan-23 8,680 8,770 8,572 8,626 8,626 8,648 22 749,993 332,932
Feb-23 8,702 8,798 8,610 8,660 8,652 8,688 36 7,340 19,547
Mar-23 8,744 8,804 8,634 8,670 8,698 8,696 -2 503 9,694
Apr-23 – – – 8,696 8,768 8,696 -72 0 101
May-23 8,790 8,860 8,686 8,736 8,726 8,752 26 3,690 13,344
Jun-23 – – – 8,812 8,812 8,812 0 0 52
Jul-23 8,710 8,710 8,710 8,710 8,794 8,710 -84 1 57
Aug-23 – – – 8,734 8,734 8,734 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 653,135 lots, or 65.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,366 10,446 10,302 10,424 10,276 10,380 104 45,355 36,702
Nov-22 10,266 10,374 10,234 10,318 10,180 10,304 124 20,628 75,193
Dec-22 10,050 10,142 9,994 10,088 9,958 10,078 120 7,134 59,410
Jan-23 9,966 10,062 9,910 9,986 9,902 9,986 84 565,945 366,937
Mar-23 9,628 9,676 9,534 9,590 9,534 9,600 66 2,751 32,968
May-23 9,596 9,654 9,504 9,554 9,478 9,562 84 5,671 26,346
Jul-23 9,498 9,576 9,436 9,476 9,412 9,492 80 3,402 6,776
Aug-23 9,436 9,494 9,364 9,402 9,344 9,426 82 2,249 2,892
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322