About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and futures have crawled back into the recent trading ranges after the moves lower late last week. A drop in the US crop condition ratings was supportive to futures prices. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat ales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 757, 744, and 727 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 847, 830, and 820 September, with resistance at 915, 948, and 978 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 880, 865, and 852 September, and resistance is at 947, 956, and 999 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher along with other ag markets yesterday. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1719, 1695, and 1685 September and resistance is at 1745, 1754, and 1758 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.20 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.89 9.90 0.00
Brokens 8.84 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on lower than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA on Monday as well as some bad production data in South Dakota that was released by Pro Farmer. South Dakota yield potential was rated as below last year and the five year average. The crop tour yesterday rated Nebraska and Indiana at below last year and the average as well. The eastern leg of the tour found above average yield potential in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 710 September. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 461, 470, and 477 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were higher yesterday on worse than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA as well as in part due to the crop tour results from the Pro Farmer crop tour. The tour does not predict yields for Soybeans but it does count pods in a 3 foot by one foot rectangle. The counts showed potential for poor crops in South Dakota but above average crops in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Tour participants rated the Soybeans counts in Nebraska as below last year but in line with the five year average. Indian counts were below last year and the five year average. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans for the coming crop year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. However, Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker.
Overnight News: China bought 517,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1612 September. Support is at 1557, 1537, and 1521 September, and resistance is at 1584, 1600, and 1607 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 488.00 September. Support is at 461.00, 456.00, and 451.00 September, and resistance is at 471.00 474.00, and 480.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7710 September. Support is at 6790, 6540, and 6480 September, with resistance at 7090, 7250, and 7290 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was yesterday. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 879.00, 958.00, and 1091.00 November. Support is at 819.00, 795.00, and 779.00 November, with resistance at 856.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4100, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 187 Sep 160 Sep 115 Sep 175 Aug
September 160 Sep 165 Sep 117 Seo 125 Aug
October

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 826.80 -20.00 Nov. 2022 up 25.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 885.40 35.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.60
Basis: Vancouver 900.40 50.00 Nov. 2022 up 3.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1047.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1052.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1062.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1050.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1055.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1065.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 980.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 735.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4350.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 313.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.484)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 203,315 lots, or 11.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 6,017 6,024 5,910 5,925 6,050 5,959 -91 93,478 34,648
Nov-22 5,834 5,904 5,816 5,824 5,842 5,856 14 71,681 65,456
Jan-23 5,640 5,709 5,624 5,672 5,640 5,671 31 30,511 38,815
Mar-23 5,526 5,588 5,523 5,562 5,544 5,558 14 7,210 8,698
May-23 5,585 5,600 5,515 5,582 5,542 5,552 10 420 1,615
Jul-23 5,507 5,556 5,489 5,542 5,522 5,524 2 15 174
Corn
Turnover: 581,729 lots, or 15.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,700 2,725 2,688 2,723 2,680 2,710 30 36,545 135,482
Nov-22 2,707 2,743 2,704 2,731 2,694 2,725 31 99,600 249,276
Jan-23 2,738 2,763 2,728 2,755 2,719 2,745 26 395,926 806,621
Mar-23 2,749 2,777 2,744 2,771 2,737 2,764 27 29,201 155,604
May-23 2,781 2,804 2,771 2,799 2,767 2,789 22 11,429 37,432
Jul-23 2,780 2,804 2,770 2,801 2,766 2,784 18 9,028 23,954
Soymeal
Turnover: 973,257 lots, or 38.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 4,321 4,359 4,311 4,355 4,282 4,333 51 94,831 131,380
Nov-22 4,186 4,244 4,181 4,237 4,149 4,212 63 60,104 232,305
Dec-22 4,000 4,055 3,992 4,045 3,954 4,017 63 23,776 94,843
Jan-23 3,839 3,895 3,836 3,882 3,806 3,864 58 696,780 1,253,499
Mar-23 3,692 3,736 3,685 3,731 3,652 3,712 60 9,243 50,822
May-23 3,556 3,809 3,251 3,599 3,533 3,556 23 74,574 120,902
Jul-23 3,545 3,577 3,533 3,571 3,494 3,556 62 10,462 11,507
Aug-23 3,541 3,580 3,538 3,571 3,510 3,560 50 3,487 4,106
Palm Oil
Turnover: 912,905 lots, or 78.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 8,658 8,938 8,648 8,886 8,684 8,798 114 64,674 56,457
Oct-22 8,590 8,846 8,550 8,804 8,592 8,704 112 17,503 62,301
Nov-22 8,558 8,814 8,530 8,774 8,584 8,674 90 11,378 58,482
Dec-22 8,516 8,774 8,488 8,744 8,532 8,634 102 7,929 36,352
Jan-23 8,500 8,778 8,468 8,724 8,510 8,626 116 796,410 343,728
Feb-23 8,500 8,800 8,484 8,744 8,518 8,652 134 7,132 19,319
Mar-23 8,514 8,812 8,514 8,772 8,604 8,698 94 1,142 9,702
Apr-23 8,748 8,806 8,748 8,762 8,482 8,768 286 4 101
May-23 8,592 8,870 8,566 8,832 8,642 8,726 84 6,733 12,869
Jun-23 – – – 8,812 8,596 8,812 216 0 52
Jul-23 – – – 8,794 8,576 8,794 218 0 57
Aug-23 – – – 8,734 8,584 8,734 150 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 640,470 lots, or 6.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 10,180 10,448 10,140 10,412 10,142 10,276 134 55,463 46,078
Nov-22 10,098 10,344 10,042 10,308 10,040 10,180 140 16,048 75,908
Dec-22 9,850 10,134 9,832 10,100 9,834 9,958 124 5,522 59,410
Jan-23 9,780 10,066 9,758 10,020 9,752 9,902 150 547,437 360,100
Mar-23 9,412 9,678 9,378 9,634 9,358 9,534 176 3,364 33,135
May-23 9,332 9,642 9,306 9,610 9,320 9,478 158 7,216 25,819
Jul-23 9,294 9,576 9,290 9,542 9,280 9,412 132 3,374 6,487
Aug-23 9,200 9,512 9,200 9,466 9,178 9,344 166 2,046 2,682
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322