Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with PPI MoM & YoY (Jul),Core PMI MoM & YoY (Jul), Initial Jobless Claims (06/Aug), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (06/Aug), and Continuing Jobless Claims (30/Jul) at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front traders are looking ahead to tomorrows Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE data. The market traded higher in yesterday’s action but closed off of the session highs. Monday’s Export Inspections showed we are picking up on exports and expect more to come as we move closer to the Autumn Equinox. We will have Export Sales today and the big three reports tomorrow. Crop Progress on Monday showed less percentage of good-to-excellent. Also we have whispers of a weak EU corn crop due to hot & dry weather and lower yields in the US corn crop. Rains are forecasted in areas of South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. I expect tomorrows report will be a gamechanger. Buckle up your chinstraps. In the overnight electronic session the September corn is currently trading at 625 ¾ which is 4 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 626 ¾ to 618 ¾.
On the Ethanol Front production and stocks were slightly tighter. The EIA said production averaged 1.022 million barrels a day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels on the week, but an increase of 36,000 barrels on the year. Domestic supply fell 138,000 barrels to 23.256 million, but was still half a million above a year ago. The Renewable Fuels Association said net inputs by ethanol refiners and blenders were up fractionally, notching a ten-week high, while volume of gasoline supplied to consumers gained almost 7%. Another sign that times are a changing British oil major BP and US commodities trader Bunge Ltd. Have put their Brazilian sugar and ethanol venture up for sale. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and Brazilian energy Raizen SA a joint venture of Shell and Cosan SA were among interested buyers. Ethanol futures remain dead in the water.
On the Crude Oil Front prices lifted as the EIA boosts demand forecast. OPEC raised its estimate of oil demand in the first half of 2022 but cut its oil-demand growth citing COVID-19 restrictions. The IEA raised estimates for oil demand growth by 380,000 this year to 2.1 million barrels a day. Dare I say the bottom is in? In the overnight electronic session the September crude oil is currently trading at 9344 which is 151 points higher. The trading range has been 9353 to 9124.
On the Natural Gas front the market is trading risk on as demand in Europe is in Putin’s hands whether to blackmail and powerplay the energy which they proved if needed they will put a stranglehold on the EU. And we have the Gas Storage data, and the Thomson Reuters poll with 13 analysts participating, estimates range from 44 bcf to 30 bcf with the median 40 bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 46 bcf and the five-year average of 47 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the September natural gas is currently trading at 8.445 which is 0.245 higher. The trading range has been 8.551 to 8.178.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan FlynnQuestions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374