About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and the trends remain sideways. The move came despite a very weak export sales report. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The visit of Mrs Pelosi to Taiwan could also hurt Chinese demand for US Cotton down the road. Chinese economic data for July was released and kept reasons for worry about Chinese demand alive. The Chinese had been reopening the economy and country lately as Covid faded, but some reports of a new variant found there could shut at least parts of the country down again in the near term. The quarantine time for travelers to the country is one week now instead of one month as before. The cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan are all subject to lockdowns of one type or another. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area. Crop conditions will continue to suffer.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 104.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,552 bales, from 4,552 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 91.60, 88.80, and 88.10 December, with resistance of 97.60, 98.50 and 100.80 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Aug 4
As of Jul 29. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 59,997 59,282 715 22,312 22,444 -132
Mar 23 8,746 8,176 570 3,287 3,291 -4
May 23 7,616 7,683 -67 142 120 22
Jul 23 12,630 12,333 297 125 116 9
Dec 23 5,726 5,356 370 13,310 13,031 279
Mar 24 309 309 0 0 0 0
May 24 131 145 -14 0 0 0
Jul 24 284 284 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 382 382 0
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 95,439 93,568 1,871 39,778 39,604 174
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 22 129 152 -23
Dec 22 108,131 106,858 1,273
Mar 23 35,303 34,102 1,201
May 23 15,325 15,063 262
Jul 23 9,042 8,370 672
Dec 23 16,735 16,842 -107
Mar 24 569 569 0
May 24 207 207 0
Jul 24 104 105 -1
Dec 24 145 145 0
Mar 25 18 18 0
Total 185,708 182,431 3,277

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher and trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts. The recent market strength has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The most recent Florida Mutual Citrus Movement and Pack report showed that FCOJ inventories are now 26.4% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 177.00 and 182.00 September. Support is at 172.00, 168.00, and 165.00 September, with resistance at 185.00, 187.00, and 189.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher in recovery trading and London was also higher yesterday in consolidation trading. A weaker US Dollar supported Coffee prices worldwide. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. Certified stocks keep dropping but GCA stocks are holding strong. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.665 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 189.85 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 213.00, 206.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 222.00, 226.00 and 228.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1940 September, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2110 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in consolidation trading. The New York market is still worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are mixed in New York and mixed in London. Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making Sugar. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 October and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 508.00 October and resistance is at 532.00, 545.00, and 553.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on weaker currency markets. Trends are starting to turn down again on the daily charts. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year but the market is trying to hold the recent lows. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.582 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2100 and 2020 September. Support is at 2240, 2200, and 2180 September, with resistance at 2320, 2360, and 2410 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 September, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1780 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322