About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port but Ukraine has made one shipment and hopes to increase this to three ships a day in the short term. Trends are mixed in all three markets. Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry. Spring Wheat production potential in the US and Canada looks high after reports from USDA of very good growing conditions so far this season.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 744, 738, and 732 September, with resistance at 801, 824, and 846 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 838, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 898, 915, and 948 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 869, 853, and 845 September, and resistance is at 909, 947, and 956 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again on ideas of less production for the US and on a weaker US Dollar. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hot and could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition but crops in these states could also be stressed for the next couple of weeks. Texas Rice is developing with water availability from the lakes very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1703, 1686, and 1663 September and resistance is at 1754, 1758, and 1787 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as extreme weather is still being noted. Big rains were reported in southern Illinois again and much of the Midwest remains hot. The USDA crop condition report Monday showed stable conditions against expectations for reduced conditions. Some selling was tied to reports that Ukraine had mounted a shipment of grain for Lebanon. There could be more shipping from Ukraine down the road and in fact the country said it would ship up to three loads of grain a day as a test. Nancy Pelosi stopped in Taiwan on an official visit Tuesday and yesterday and China made its unhappiness unknown. She has left the island now. What is unknown is what this could do to demand for Corn but the fact that Ukraine cn now ship hurts Corn demand ideas anyway. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward . Crop condition ratings were about unchanged last night. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields but the market expects enough production to meet any potential demand down the road. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 411, 404, and 398 September, and resistance is at 443, 461, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were higher yesterday on extreme weather seen in parts of the Midwest and on concerns about Chinese demand moving forward. The northern and eastern areas of the Midwest have a chance for rain and more moderate temperatures. It is expected to stay hot and dry to the west and south.. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. Nance {elosi is gone from Taiwan and the situation there has become less important in the minds of traders. It is possible that Soybeans sales down the road to China could be hurt because of the trip. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.
Overnight News: China and unknown destinations each bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1431, 1390, and 1377 September, and resistance is at 1470, 1516, and 1521 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 437.00, and 425.00 September, and resistance is at 461.00 464.00, and 470.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5920, 5810, and 5670 September, with resistance at 6380, 6440, and 6690 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on hopes and ideas of increasing supplies. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was sharply lower again yesterday. Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil have been lower for the last few days and Canola needed to keep competitive pricing. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 781.00, 767.00, and 753.00 November, with resistance at 856.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3760, 3520, and 3470 October, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4460 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry south and showers and storms north today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
160 Sep
160 Sep
120 Sep
140 Aug

August
160 Sep
160 Sep
120 Seo
140 Aug

September
150 Sep
160 Sep
120 Sep
120 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 863.40 15.00 Nov. 2022 dn 57.75
Basis: Thunder Bay 856.90 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 26.50
Basis: Vancouver 876.90 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 36.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1007.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1002.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 977.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1010.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1005.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 980.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 930.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 710.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4050.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 285.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.449)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug. 5
Soybean No. 1
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 6183 6194 6194 6206 93676
Nov-22 5848 5841 5793 5811 41524
Jan-23 5710 5744 5702 5718 31392
Mar-23 5673 5694 5649 5670 5093
May-23 5678 5677 5661 5680 582
Jul-23 0 5677 5677 5677 32
Subtotal 172299
Corn
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Sep-22 2662 2688 2671 2677 587966
Nov-22 2700 2717 2700 2708 197709
Jan-23 2711 2733 2722 2724 529581
Mar-23 2735 2744 2733 2741 130458
May-23 2781 2789 2784 2781 26025
Jul-23 2794 2801 2798 2793 12019
Subtotal 1483758
Soymeal
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Aug-22 4238 4255 4106 4250 59
Sep-22 3987 4079 3946 4027 818682
Nov-22 3877 3975 3859 3927 202958
Dec-22 3772 3846 3739 3793 81429
Jan-23 3614 3717 3575 3663 781350
Mar-23 3452 3558 3450 3498 54063
May-23 3370 3462 3353 3420 89713
Jul-23 3343 3431 3330 3388 10252
Subtotal 2038506
Palm Oil
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Aug-22 0 9164 9164 9164 627
Sep-22 7888 8132 7924 7996 272887
Oct-22 7712 7958 7822 7838 65933
Nov-22 7726 7886 7770 7760 49989
Dec-22 7668 7896 7734 7780 33378
Jan-23 7680 7904 7760 7794 198372
Feb-23 7742 7948 7846 7826 16547
Mar-23 7768 7982 7910 7862 7502
Apr-23 0 7772 7772 7772 104
May-23 7818 8022 7856 7932 8598
Jun-23 7978 8096 7846 8036 38
Jul-23 7914 8098 7876 7934 22
Subtotal 653997
Soybean Oil
Contract Open Close Prev Settle Settle Volume
Aug-22 0 9916 9916 9916 0
Sep-22 9582 9658 9744 9586 215135
Nov-22 9420 9512 9568 9434 69445
Dec-22 9324 9418 9420 9344 51713
Jan-23 9288 9372 9396 9302 208700
Mar-23 8924 9018 9036 8954 31322
May-23 8900 8948 9004 8878 20084
Jul-23 8748 8872 8898 8796 4932
Subtotal 601331
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322