Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. June Coffee, Cocoa Imports-August 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2022—- —-May 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 125,764,800 277,311,384 106,451,655 234,725,899
coffee, roasted 9,019,742 19,888,531 9,400,449 20,727,990
instant 5,988,303 13,204,208 5,435,876 11,986,107
cocoa beans 48,561,298 107,077,662 45,927,299 101,269,694
10 lbs or over 2,651,579 5,846,732 2,792,990 6,158,543
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 12,382,683 27,303,816 10,221,210 22,537,768
not defatted 5,622,818 12,398,314 5,117,498 11,284,083
defatted 7,004,399 15,444,700 8,663,882 19,103,860
unsweetened 10,583,951 23,337,612 11,200,496 24,697,094
sweetened 63,893 140,884 77,644 171,205
coating 4,516,558 9,959,010 6,058,123 13,358,161
chocolate 14,630,809 32,260,934 12,053,573 26,578,128
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading and the trends remain sideways. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. The visit of Mrs Pelosi to Taiwan could also hurt Chinese demand for US Cotton down the road. Chinese economic data for July was released and kept reasons for worry about Chinese demand alive. The Chinese had been reopening the economy and country lately as Covid faded, but some reports of a new variant found there could shut at least parts of the country down again in the near term. The quarantine time for travelers to the country is one week now instead of one month as before. The cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan are all subject to lockdowns of one type or another. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area. Crop conditions will continue to suffer.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 105.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 4,582 bales, from 4,582 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were -112,400 balres this year and 71,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 100 bales this year and 4,500 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 91.60, 88.80, and 88.10 December, with resistance of 97.60, 98.50 and 100.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts. The recent market strength has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. The most recent Florida Mutual Citrus Movement and Pack report showed that FCOJ inventories are now 26.4% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 177.00 and 182.00 September. Support is at 172.00, 168.00, and 165.00 September, with resistance at 179.00, 181.00, and 185.00 September.
General Comments: New York was higher in recovery trading and London was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. Certified stocks keep dropping but GCA stocks are holding strong. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less but the cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry. The dry weather is raising some concerns about the next crop potential but it is normally dry at this time of year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.695 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 189.85 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 213.00, 206.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 219.00, 222.00 and 226.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1940 September, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2110 September.
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher and London closed higher in consolidation trading. New York attempted to break out to the upside but could not hold the gains well enough to get a new trend started. The New York market is still worried that the lack of clarity about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to produce more Sugar for export. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are mixed in New York and mixed in London. Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making Sugar. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 October and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 508.00 October and resistance is at 532.00, 545.00, and 553.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on what appeared to be new speculative selling. Trends are starting to turn down again on the daily charts. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year but the market is trying to hold the recent lows. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.535 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2100 and 2020 September. Support is at 2240, 2200, and 2180 September, with resistance at 2320, 2370, and 2410 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 September, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1780 September.