About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. June Grain Exports-Aug 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 22 May 22 Apr 22 Jun 21
Barley 2,998,000 896,165 60,650 2,089,640
Corn /1 5,492,988,000 7,188,200,000 6,974,723,000 6,338,104,000
Sorghum 592,512,000 873,109,000 795,711,000 195,742,000
Oats 2,207,740 934,225 2,308,945 5,152,551
Rye 888,972 1,384,600 68,006 989,341
Wheat /1 1,593,052,578 1,361,020,597 1,751,414,716 2,001,326,320
wheat flour /1 18,603,300 19,573,226 20,766,149 19,659,704
Malt 25,543,656 24,817,707 22,871,221 31,048,358
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jun 22 May 22 Apr 22 Jun 21
Barley 137,696 41,160 2,786 95,975
Corn /1 216,247,166 282,984,030 274,579,898 249,517,572
Sorghum 23,325,928 34,372,430 31,325,437 7,705,943
Oats 152,099 64,362 159,072 354,979
Rye 34,997 54,509 2,677 38,948
Wheat /1 58,534,061 50,008,433 64,352,814 73,535,399
wheat flour /1 410,133 431,516 457,815 433,422
Malt 56,314,132 54,713,688 50,422,420 68,449,924
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. June Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Aug 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 22 May 22 Apr 22 Jun 21
soybeans 2,271,140,185 2,417,659,607 3,658,179,451 927,191,592
soyoil 33,324,929 33,802,222 76,315,058 41,730,624
crude 25,797,064 26,977,958 65,670,166 33,810,628
refined 135,055 333,641 169,501 132,145
other/1 7,206,334 6,211,760 10,196,497 7,440,314
hydrogenated 186,476 278,863 278,894 347,537
cottonseed oil 8,298,074 3,133,382 4,920,499 2,807,040
crude 753,123 468,312 141,190 23,149
refined 6,559,670 1,497,670 3,938,060 1,642,074
other/1 794,048 873,948 552,523 739,114
hydrogenated 191,233 293,452 288,726 402,703
sunseeds 92,526 1,814 1,743,139 67,180
sunseed oil 5,627,909 7,381,155 6,892,746 5,315,890
rapeseed 3,057,202 2,039,078 3,763,736 11,456,279
rapeseed oil 4,483,556 4,662,525 10,646,127 10,664,463
crude 734,559 1,360,171 2,977,871 3,988,643
refined 3,748,997 3,302,354 7,668,256 6,675,820
linseed meal 525,199 333,759 225,528 126,738
cottonseed meal 4,806,465 7,265,847 5,490,792 5,848,275
soymeal 857,614,087 869,552,500 943,376,389 652,458,184
soymeal/flour 155,685,830 149,728,490 117,955,857 170,526,807
soymeal hulls 26,308,000 17,462,000 15,304,000 9,601,000
lard 892,302 1,449,933 8,249,335 1,944,580
edible tallow 5,088,511 6,284,598 9,617,460 8,726,631
inedible tallow 16,951,436 13,955,893 8,895,902 11,785,695
ch white grease 0 0 0 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——
Jun 22 May 22 Apr 22 Jun 21
soybeans 83,449,260 88,832,872 134,413,706 34,068,109
soyoil 73,468,905 74,521,156 168,245,932 92,000,293
crude 56,872,801 59,476,227 144,777,958 74,539,688
refined 297,745 735,553 373,686 291,330
other/1 15,887,250 13,694,589 22,479,432 16,403,087
hydrogenated 411,109 614,788 614,856 766,188
cottonseed oil 18,294,125 6,907,926 10,847,845 6,188,465
crude 1,660,352 1,032,451 311,271 51,035
refined 14,461,599 3,301,798 8,681,938 3,620,154
other/1 1,750,576 1,926,726 1,218,105 1,629,468
hydrogenated 421,597 646,951 636,532 887,808
sunseeds 203,985 3,999 3,842,964 148,107
sunseed oil 12,407,418 16,272,664 15,195,906 11,719,533
rapeseed 6,739,978 4,495,398 8,297,619 25,256,776
rapeseed oil 9,884,551 10,279,110 23,470,696 23,511,120
crude 1,619,426 2,998,664 6,565,083 8,793,454
refined 8,265,125 7,280,446 16,905,614 14,717,666
linseed meal 579 368 249 140
cottonseed meal 5,298 8,009 6,053 6,447
soymeal 945,348 958,508 1,039,884 719,205
soymeal flour/me 171,612 165,046 130,023 187,972
soymeal hulls 28,999 19,248 16,870 10,583
lard 1,967,190 3,196,556 18,186,674 4,287,066
edible tallow 11,218,248 13,855,169 21,202,874 19,238,931
inedible tallow 37,371,526 30,767,483 19,612,110 25,983,014
ch white grease 0 0 0 0

DJ U.S. June Grain Imports-August 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2022—- —-May 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 389,179 858,140 483,880 1,066,955
spring wheat 27,726 61,136 355,338 783,520
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 416,905 919,276 839,218 1,850,476
barley 60,469,927 133,336,189 25,052,737 55,241,285
oats 574,422 1,266,601 608,553 1,341,859
corn 30,224,417 66,644,839 51,690,082 113,976,631
other corn 6,024,950 13,285,015 3,386,109 7,466,370
TOTAL CORN 36,249,367 79,929,854 55,076,191 121,443,001

DJ U.S. Jun Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-August 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2022—- —-May 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 37,699,272 83,126,895 33,147,677 73,090,628
palm kernel oil 15,291,252 33,717,211 26,211,503 57,796,364
palm oil 117,441,587 258,958,699 164,001,521 361,623,354
soybean 20,120,653 44,366,040 29,214,564 64,418,114
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 11,076,862 24,424,481 11,391,286 25,117,786
rapeseed oil
edible 164,656,376 363,067,309 157,289,931 346,824,298
rapeseed oil,
inedible 68,295 150,590 60,068 132,450

DJ Correction to U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 4
For the week ended Jul 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 249.9 0.0 8246.7 8412.2 5753.7 30.0
hrw 72.8 0.0 2393.5 2854.7 1596.2 0.0
srw 20.0 0.0 1572.5 1532.1 1076.1 30.0
hrs 35.1 0.0 2300.5 2403.6 1501.7 0.0
white 137.1 0.0 1852.9 1571.8 1470.3 0.0
durum -15.0 0.0 127.4 50.1 109.4 0.0
corn 57.9 256.7 60658.4 69723.5 4245.8 7856.9
soybeans -11.0 410.6 59528.0 61920.1 5631.6 15265.7
soymeal 186.6 48.8 11597.3 11812.2 1648.8 819.2
soyoil 1.3 0.0 693.0 682.6 60.0 0.6
upland cotton -112.4 71.4 15588.2 16206.4 2523.4 4828.0
pima cotton 0.1 4.5 479.7 843.8 31.9 68.9
sorghum 1.2 68.0 6966.3 7183.0 207.4 135.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.6 25.0 12.8 0.0
rice 3.0 1.0 2936.3 3430.6 222.0 64.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to news that Ukraine had launched a shipment of grain to Lebanon. It gave hope to the world market that Ukrainian supplies can be obtained at more reasonable prices and that shipping will not be onerous. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port but Ukraine has made one shipment and hopes to increase this to three ships a day in the short term. Trends are mixed in all three markets. Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry. Spring Wheat production potential in the US and Canada looks high after reports from USDA of very good growing conditions so far this season.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 744, 738, and 732 September, with resistance at 801, 824, and 846 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 838, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 898, 915, and 948 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 869, 853, and 845 September, and resistance is at 909, 947, and 956 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again despite weakness in other ag markets. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hot and could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition but crops in these states could also be stressed for the next couple of weeks. Texas Rice is developing with water availability from the lakes very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1686, 1663, and 1652 September and resistance is at 1712, 1719, and 1730 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday as selling tied to the weather forecasts that implied cooler and wetter weather for parts of the Midwest ran out of steam. The areas that will be cooler were to the north and east. The USDA crop condition report Monday showed stable conditions against expectations for reduced conditions. Some selling was tied to reports that Ukraine had mounted a shipment of grain for Lebanon. There could be more shipping from Ukraine down the road and in fact the country said it would ship up to three loads of grain a day as a test. Nancy Pelosi stopped in Taiwan on an official visit Tuesday and yesterday and China made its unhappiness unknown. She has left the island now. What is unknown is what this could do to demand for Corn but the fact that Ukraine cn now ship hurts Corn demand ideas anyway. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward . Crop condition ratings were about unchanged last night. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields but the market expects enough production to meet any potential demand down the road. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling.
Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 1.043 million barrels per day this week, from 1/.021 million the previous week, and from 1.013 million barrels last year. The production of ethanol used 102.6 million bushels of Corn this week, from 100.5 million the previous week, and from 100.3 million bushels in the same week last year. Marketing year to date Corn use for ethanol totaled an estimated 4.863 billion bushels, up 261 million or 5.7% from the previous year’s pace, but short of the pace needed to hit USDA’s current target. Marketing year to date Corn use for ethanol totaled 4.863 billion bushels, up 261 million or 5.7% from the previous year’s pace.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 411, 404, and 398 September, and resistance is at 443, 461, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling as the weather forecasts became more moderate in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest and on concerns about Chinese demand moving forward. The northern and eastern areas of the Midwest have a chance for rain and more moderate temperatures. It is expected to stay hot and dry to the west and south.. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. Selling also came on news that Nancy Pelosi and a bilateral group of congressmen had landed in Taiwan much to the consternation of the Chinese. They are gone now, but the Chinese have threatened all kinds of retaliation and were mounting some excercises around Taiwan. It is possible that Soybeans sales down the road to China could be hurt because of the trip. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1359 September. Support is at 1377, 1367, and 1360 September, and resistance is at 1428, 1455, and 1470 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 425.00, 422.00, and 419.00 September, and resistance is at 442.00 444.00, and 450.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5920, 5810, and 5670 September, with resistance at 6380, 6440, and 6690 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on hopes and ideas of increasing supplies. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was sharply lower again yesterday. Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil have been lower for the last few days and Canola needed to keep competitive pricing. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 781.00, 767.00, and 753.00 November, with resistance at 856.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3760, 3520, and 3470 October, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4460 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry south and showers and storms north today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
160 Sep
160 Sep
120 Sep
140 Aug

August
160 Sep
160 Sep
120 Seo
140 Aug

September
150 Sep
160 Sep
120 Sep
120 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 863.40 15.00 Nov. 2022 dn 57.75
Basis: Thunder Bay 856.90 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 26.50
Basis: Vancouver 876.90 55.00 Nov. 2022 dn 36.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thurssday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 987.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 987.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 947.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 990.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 920.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 700.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4000.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 283.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4565)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 146,448 lots, or 8.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 6,227 6,260 6,136 6,173 6,260 6,194 -66 109,951 95,207
Nov-22 5,864 5,879 5,752 5,772 5,862 5,793 -69 18,423 41,069
Jan-23 5,770 5,789 5,664 5,678 5,769 5,702 -67 15,954 31,146
Mar-23 5,721 5,721 5,624 5,633 5,712 5,649 -63 1,985 4,438
May-23 5,701 5,701 5,650 5,650 5,717 5,661 -56 134 596
Jul-23 5,677 5,677 5,677 5,677 5,688 5,677 -11 1 32
Corn
Turnover: 361,399 lots, or 9.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,689 2,690 2,648 2,658 2,682 2,671 -11 202,411 603,152
Nov-22 2,714 2,721 2,679 2,686 2,712 2,700 -12 34,625 198,194
Jan-23 2,738 2,743 2,701 2,709 2,733 2,722 -11 96,363 512,090
Mar-23 2,740 2,751 2,715 2,736 2,740 2,733 -7 18,092 123,987
May-23 2,795 2,800 2,764 2,774 2,791 2,784 -7 4,192 25,544
Jul-23 2,811 2,813 2,777 2,785 2,802 2,798 -4 5,716 10,826
Soymeal
Turnover: 937,364 lots, or 35.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 4,106 4,131 4,106 -25 0 59
Sep-22 4,000 4,000 3,920 3,946 3,955 3,946 -9 472,920 783,471
Nov-22 3,898 3,917 3,828 3,848 3,891 3,859 -32 52,278 202,574
Dec-22 3,767 3,778 3,720 3,742 3,751 3,739 -12 8,654 82,263
Jan-23 3,605 3,618 3,547 3,577 3,596 3,575 -21 365,100 746,859
Mar-23 3,470 3,476 3,424 3,440 3,456 3,450 -6 11,420 54,434
May-23 3,366 3,386 3,333 3,346 3,364 3,353 -11 21,649 89,606
Jul-23 3,350 3,357 3,313 3,318 3,343 3,330 -13 5,343 10,984
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,219,816 lots, or 9.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,398 9,398 9,086 9,086 9,280 9,164 -116 4 627
Sep-22 8,140 8,186 7,724 7,822 8,076 7,924 -152 951,830 284,700
Oct-22 7,968 8,064 7,608 7,690 7,940 7,822 -118 14,282 66,450
Nov-22 7,994 8,020 7,552 7,618 7,930 7,770 -160 7,925 49,564
Dec-22 8,004 8,050 7,564 7,628 7,944 7,734 -210 7,565 33,307
Jan-23 8,046 8,066 7,570 7,654 7,966 7,760 -206 225,645 194,724
Feb-23 8,018 8,076 7,612 7,690 7,990 7,846 -144 5,991 15,988
Mar-23 8,114 8,118 7,652 7,730 8,026 7,910 -116 4,593 6,712
Apr-23 7,852 7,852 7,748 7,760 8,050 7,772 -278 5 104
May-23 8,150 8,180 7,722 7,790 8,100 7,856 -244 1,956 8,547
Jun-23 7,910 7,910 7,784 7,784 8,156 7,846 -310 2 39
Jul-23 7,978 7,978 7,778 7,790 8,148 7,876 -272 18 27
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,047,618 lots, or 10.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 9,916 9,916 9,916 0 0 0
Sep-22 10,050 10,096 9,468 9,524 9,896 9,744 -152 781,156 224,358
Nov-22 9,890 9,928 9,320 9,382 9,764 9,568 -196 13,020 69,251
Dec-22 9,788 9,800 9,238 9,288 9,644 9,420 -224 7,913 49,516
Jan-23 9,718 9,750 9,198 9,246 9,610 9,396 -214 234,261 195,821
Mar-23 9,348 9,368 8,858 8,900 9,256 9,036 -220 4,667 30,415
May-23 9,220 9,266 8,770 8,814 9,178 9,004 -174 4,579 18,899
Jul-23 9,168 9,194 8,696 8,748 9,092 8,898 -194 2,022 4,664
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322