About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to news that Ukraine had launched a shipment of grain to Lebanon. It gave hope to the world market that Ukrainian supplies can be obtained at more reasonable prices and that shipping will not be onerous. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port. Trends are mixed in all three markets. Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry. Spring Wheat production potential in the US and Canada looks high after reports from USDA of very good growing conditions so far this season.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 766, 754, and 744 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 91854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 838, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 898, 915, and 948 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 869, 853, and 845 September, and resistance is at 909, 947, and 956 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher despite weakness in other ag markets. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable. Trends are turning down on the daily charts after the price action yesterday. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hot and could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition but crops in these states could also be stressed for the next couple of weeks. Texas Rice is developing with water availability from the lakes very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1634, 1607, and 1580 September. Support is at 1663, 1652, and 1646 September and resistance is at 1694, 1703, and 1712 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 3
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.30 9.62 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.98 9.96 0.00
Brokens 8.90 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday on selling tied to the weather forecasts that implied cooler and wetter weather for parts of the Midwest. The areas that will be cooler were to the north and east. The USDA crop condition report Monday showed stable conditions against expectations for reduced conditions. Some selling was tied to reports that Ukraine had mounted a shipment of grain for Lebanon. There could be more shipping from Ukraine down the road and in fact the country said it would ship up to three loads of grain a day as a test. Nancy Pelosi stopped in Taiwan on an official visit yesterday and China made its unhappiness unknown. What is unknown is what this could do to demand for Corn but the fact that Ukraine cn now ship hurts Corn demand ideas anyway. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward . Crop condition ratings were about unchanged last night. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields but the market expects enough production to meet any potential demand down the road. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 421, 416, and 404 September, and resistance is at 443, 461, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling as the weather forecasts became more moderate in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest. These areas have a chance for rain and more moderate temperatures. It is expected to stay hot and dry to the west and south.. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. Selling also came on news that Nancy Pelosi and a bilateral group of congresdsmen had landed in Taiwan much to the consternation of the Chinese. The Chinese have threatened all kinds of retaliation and were mounting some excercises around Taiwan. It is possible that Soybeans sales down the road to China could be hurt because of the trip. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.
Overnight News: Poland bought 135,000 tons iof US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1404, 1400, and 1377 September, and resistance is at 1455, 1470, and 1516 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 425.00, 422.00, and 419.00 September, and resistance is at 442.00 444.00, and 450.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6890 and 7710 September. Support is at 6280, 6160, and 5920 September, with resistance at 6440, 6690, and 6890 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on news that China had committed to buy another 1.0 million tons of Palm Oil from Indonesia. It was positive demand news for a market that needed some new demand. Futures were lower today with Chicago Soybean Oil price action. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was sharply lower yesterday and played catch up after the market was closed on Monday. Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil have been lower for the last two days and Canola needed to keep competitive pricing. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 833.00, 825.00, and 809.00 November, with resistance at 870.00, 877.00, and 895.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3760, 3520, and 3470 October, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4460 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry south and showers and storms north today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
92 July
165 July
70 July
90 July

August
187 Sep
160 Sep
115 Seo
175 Aug

September
160 Sep
165 Sep
117 Sep
125 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 921.15 28.35 Nov. 2022 up 29.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 883.40 35.00 Nov. 2022 dn 44.40
Basis: Vancouver 913.40 65.00 Nov. 2022 dn 44.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1012.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1007.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 982.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1015.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1010.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 950.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 710.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4100.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 286.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.456)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 148,140 lots, or 9.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 6,255 6,299 6,223 6,227 6,211 6,260 49 115,520 99,183
Nov-22 5,861 5,896 5,831 5,862 5,856 5,862 6 18,120 41,309
Jan-23 5,780 5,805 5,733 5,756 5,748 5,769 21 13,058 29,075
Mar-23 5,714 5,745 5,687 5,703 5,702 5,712 10 1,380 3,487
May-23 5,722 5,739 5,700 5,708 5,699 5,717 18 58 588
Jul-23 5,700 5,700 5,677 5,677 5,668 5,688 20 4 32
Corn
Turnover: 388,417 lots, or 10.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,680 2,704 2,669 2,685 2,669 2,682 13 237,674 609,832
Nov-22 2,709 2,727 2,699 2,717 2,701 2,712 11 28,307 189,903
Jan-23 2,725 2,750 2,720 2,738 2,721 2,733 12 95,703 492,737
Mar-23 2,735 2,749 2,722 2,747 2,726 2,740 14 17,550 119,181
May-23 2,781 2,800 2,774 2,798 2,775 2,791 16 4,658 25,337
Jul-23 2,790 2,814 2,787 2,813 2,788 2,802 14 4,525 10,418
Soymeal
Turnover: 955,494 lots, or 36.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 4,131 4,153 4,131 -22 848 749
Sep-22 3,942 3,992 3,928 3,970 3,957 3,955 -2 510,277 783,524
Nov-22 3,885 3,922 3,864 3,894 3,903 3,891 -12 38,369 208,596
Dec-22 3,740 3,788 3,725 3,767 3,761 3,751 -10 8,160 82,568
Jan-23 3,592 3,628 3,567 3,600 3,616 3,596 -20 363,609 717,253
Mar-23 3,440 3,489 3,432 3,470 3,478 3,456 -22 9,144 55,210
May-23 3,360 3,395 3,343 3,375 3,382 3,364 -18 20,869 89,097
Jul-23 3,338 3,367 3,319 3,356 3,357 3,343 -14 4,218 10,620
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,318,003 lots, or 10.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,310 9,378 8,792 8,792 9,626 9,280 -346 11 628
Sep-22 8,120 8,198 7,940 8,096 8,262 8,076 -186 1,068,181 279,526
Oct-22 7,950 8,060 7,818 7,968 8,106 7,940 -166 14,361 65,405
Nov-22 7,988 8,024 7,800 7,924 8,098 7,930 -168 6,995 48,248
Dec-22 7,998 8,040 7,826 7,956 8,116 7,944 -172 5,886 32,716
Jan-23 7,980 8,068 7,842 7,974 8,104 7,966 -138 209,273 177,003
Feb-23 7,998 8,098 7,874 8,010 8,174 7,990 -184 5,708 15,669
Mar-23 8,034 8,134 7,916 8,056 8,156 8,026 -130 6,268 5,542
Apr-23 8,080 8,136 8,006 8,036 8,240 8,050 -190 15 107
May-23 8,118 8,196 7,978 8,100 8,208 8,100 -108 1,300 8,349
Jun-23 – – – 8,156 8,182 8,156 -26 0 40
Jul-23 8,198 8,198 8,096 8,186 8,140 8,148 8 5 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 900,018 lots, or 88.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 9,916 9,916 9,916 0 0 0
Sep-22 9,856 10,078 9,748 10,010 9,856 9,896 40 689,164 229,597
Nov-22 9,738 9,900 9,648 9,840 9,748 9,764 16 9,148 68,374
Dec-22 9,600 9,778 9,524 9,710 9,604 9,644 40 5,089 48,417
Jan-23 9,560 9,736 9,480 9,670 9,594 9,610 16 190,943 185,657
Mar-23 9,262 9,358 9,152 9,302 9,246 9,256 10 2,353 30,429
May-23 9,168 9,270 9,056 9,190 9,162 9,178 16 2,101 18,503
Jul-23 9,102 9,198 8,990 9,134 9,068 9,092 24 1,220 4,339
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322