About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 01
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 01, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 28, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/28/2022 07/21/2022 07/29/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 599 847 4,214
CORN 856,938 753,793 1,467,379 51,926,177 63,092,662
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 48
OATS 0 798 0 5,089 100
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 92,019 77,196 55,306 7,236,681 6,767,030
SOYBEANS 555,083 392,480 185,723 53,561,468 58,357,567
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,260 240
WHEAT 256,601 475,526 405,215 2,848,425 3,791,107
Total 1,760,641 1,699,793 2,114,222 115,580,947 132,012,992
———————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 31-Jul 24-Jul 2021 Avg
Cotton Squaring 89 80 81 87
Cotton Setting Bolls 58 48 48 50
Corn Silking 80 62 89 85
Corn Dough 26 13 35 31
Soybeans Blooming 79 64 85 80
Soybeans Setting Pods 44 26 56 51
Sorghum Headed 43 35 55 51
Sorghum Coloring 23 19 22 23
Rice Headed 54 39 57 59
Peanuts Pegging 89 82 87 87
Sunflowers Planted 97 93 98 97
Oats Headed 98 94 100 100
Oats Harvested 33 22 46 39
Winter Wheat Harvested 82 778 90 85
Spring Wheat Headed 97 86 99 99
Barley Headed 98 93 98 98
Barley Harvested 6 11 6

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 13 34 32 6
Cotton Last Week 15 15 36 29 5
Cotton Last Year 1 7 32 49 11

Corn This Week 5 9 25 48 13
Corn Last Week 4 10 25 48 13
Corn Last Year 3 8 27 47 15

Soybeans This Week 3 8 29 49 11
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 28 48 12

Spring Wheat This Week 1 6 23 60 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 7 24 59 9
Spring Wheat Last Year 30 34 26 9 1

Sorghum This Week 13 19 40 26 2
Sorghum Last Week 11 17 42 27 3
Sorghum Last Year 3 7 28 54 8

Rice This Week 1 3 23 54 19
Rice Last Week 1 2 22 58 17
Rice Last Year 1 3 24 57 15

Peanuts This Week 0 4 24 61 10
Peanuts Last Week 0 3 27 62 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 23 63 10

Oats This Week 12 11 22 47 8
Oats Last Week 12 12 21 47 8
Oats Last Year 11 21 32 30 6

Barley This Week 3 11 31 46 9
Barley Last Week 3 11 31 46 9
Barley Last Year 22 33 24 17 4

Pastures and Ranges This Week 27 22 26 22 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 25 25 25 22 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 23 19 26 24 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on news that Ukraine had launched a shipment of grain to Lebanon. It gave hope to the world market that Ukrainian supplies can be obtained at more reasonable prices and that shipping will not be onerous. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port. Trends are mixed in all three markets. Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 766, 754, and 744 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 91854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 845, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 898, 915, and 948 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 880, 869, and 853 September, and resistance is at 9409, 947, and 956 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower along with weakness in other ag markets. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable. Trends are turning down on the daily charts after the price action yesterday. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hot and could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition but crops in these states could also be stressed for the next couple of weeks. Texas Rice is developing with water availability from the lakes very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1634, 1607, and 1580 September. Support is at 1652, 1646, and 1631 September and resistance is at 1694, 1703, and 1712 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on selling tied to the weather forecasts that implied cooler and wetter weather for parts of the Midwest. The areas that will be cooler were to the north and east. Some selling was tied to reports that Ukraine had mounted a shipment of grain for Lebanon. There could be more shipping from Ukraine down the road.. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward . Crop condition ratings were about unchanged last night. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 461, 470, and 477 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling as the weather forecasts became more moderate in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest. These areas have a chance for rain and more moderate temperatures. It is expected to stay hot and dry to the west and south.. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1377, and 1367 September, and resistance is at 1455, 1470, and 1516 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 425.00, 422.00, and 419.00 September, and resistance is at 433.00 442.00, and 444.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6890 and 7710 September. Support is at 6350, 6280, and 5920 September, with resistance at 6690, 6890, and 7110 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on news that China had committed to buy another 1.0 million tons of Palm Oil from Indonesia. It was positive demand news for a market that needed some new demand. Futures were lower today with Chicago Soybean Oil price action. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was closed for a holiday. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 958.00 and 1091.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 861.00, and 833.00 November, with resistance at 917.00, 922.00, and 937.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up wit4h objectives of 4780 and 5680 October. Support is at 3760, 3520, and 3470 October, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 48460 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
92 July
165 July
70 July
90 July

August
187 Sep
160 Sep
115 Seo
175 Aug

September
160 Sep
165 Sep
117 Sep
125 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 891.95 28.35 Nov. 2022 up 39.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 927.80 35.00 Nov. 2022 up 14.20
Basis: Vancouver 957.80 65.00 Nov. 2022 up 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1022.50 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1007.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 967.50 -55.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1025.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1010.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 970.00 -55.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 970.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 710.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4050.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 286.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.453)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 161,902 lots, or 9.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 6,210 6,282 6,167 6,255 6,192 6,211 19 118,814 95,436
Nov-22 5,909 5,909 5,816 5,861 5,884 5,856 -28 20,996 39,361
Jan-23 5,806 5,806 5,700 5,764 5,798 5,748 -50 19,675 28,348
Mar-23 5,731 5,746 5,662 5,712 5,760 5,702 -58 2,315 2,673
May-23 5,704 5,731 5,676 5,722 5,746 5,699 -47 100 596
Jul-23 5,689 5,689 5,647 5,647 5,715 5,668 -47 2 29
Corn
Turnover: 471,297 lots, or 1.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,660 2,687 2,643 2,684 2,670 2,669 -1 305,623 632,293
Nov-22 2,688 2,715 2,677 2,714 2,696 2,701 5 35,372 190,039
Jan-23 2,710 2,737 2,702 2,733 2,722 2,721 -1 98,561 478,191
Mar-23 2,719 2,737 2,704 2,734 2,719 2,726 7 23,644 114,730
May-23 2,773 2,788 2,760 2,784 2,780 2,775 -5 5,023 23,966
Jul-23 2,785 2,797 2,772 2,795 2,793 2,788 -5 3,074 9,991
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,128,145 lots, or 42.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 4,153 4,189 4,153 -36 29 1,597
Sep-22 3,983 4,008 3,905 3,956 4,027 3,957 -70 618,460 814,025
Nov-22 3,930 3,947 3,859 3,899 3,972 3,903 -69 48,789 211,888
Dec-22 3,791 3,802 3,722 3,760 3,838 3,761 -77 13,294 82,552
Jan-23 3,645 3,673 3,569 3,610 3,707 3,616 -91 401,568 697,417
Mar-23 3,504 3,526 3,425 3,469 3,569 3,478 -91 12,831 54,465
May-23 3,420 3,429 3,351 3,371 3,461 3,382 -79 27,705 87,055
Jul-23 3,385 3,400 3,328 3,350 3,435 3,357 -78 5,469 10,573
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,376,768 lots, or 11.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 9,626 9,626 9,626 0 0 628
Sep-22 8,400 8,476 8,024 8,120 8,636 8,262 -374 1,088,436 293,822
Oct-22 8,266 8,342 7,846 7,976 8,448 8,106 -342 22,706 65,016
Nov-22 8,178 8,266 7,848 7,954 8,422 8,098 -324 9,545 47,410
Dec-22 8,236 8,276 7,884 7,972 8,476 8,116 -360 8,387 32,222
Jan-23 8,250 8,302 7,908 7,994 8,476 8,104 -372 232,582 163,176
Feb-23 8,300 8,326 7,936 8,026 8,560 8,174 -386 8,286 14,909
Mar-23 8,332 8,354 7,964 8,066 8,466 8,156 -310 5,303 3,339
Apr-23 8,372 8,372 8,122 8,122 8,458 8,240 -218 3 103
May-23 8,400 8,410 8,022 8,128 8,580 8,208 -372 1,503 8,167
Jun-23 – – – 8,182 8,640 8,182 -458 0 40
Jul-23 8,364 8,364 8,070 8,152 8,612 8,140 -472 17 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 884,915 lots, or 86.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 – – – 9,916 9,916 9,916 0 11 910
Sep-22 9,930 9,988 9,722 9,860 10,094 9,856 -238 663,653 234,266
Nov-22 9,862 9,870 9,626 9,752 9,956 9,748 -208 10,905 68,302
Dec-22 9,690 9,740 9,498 9,632 9,896 9,604 -292 6,994 47,762
Jan-23 9,688 9,706 9,460 9,600 9,852 9,594 -258 192,772 179,086
Mar-23 9,320 9,366 9,136 9,262 9,538 9,246 -292 3,824 30,354
May-23 9,320 9,320 9,064 9,180 9,412 9,162 -250 4,391 18,577
Jul-23 9,202 9,216 8,896 9,110 9,314 9,068 -246 2,365 4,184
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322