Another Manic Monday? The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/02/2022

We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY (30/Jun) at 7:55 A.M., Jolt’s Job Openings (Jun), Fed Evans Speech, Jolt’s Job Quits (Jun) at 9;00 A.M., API Energy Stocks at #;#0 P.M. and LMI Logistics Managers Index Current.

On the Corn Front we have a weather market, also throw in China demand, recession fears that the recession is here, just do the math on last week’s GDP numbers. Also the Ukraine has 20 vessels to export grains and to my knowledge only one vessel left the port of Odesa. Brazil continues to export and once they are done buyers could turn to the U.S. Crop tours will begin shortly, we already have boots on the ground ahead of the ProFarmer tour Export Inspections and Crop Progress could not stop the bears from selling. Hopefully the market will stabilize around the $6 level.  In the overnight electronic session the September corn is currently trading at 600 ½ which is 6 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 605 ¼ to 506 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front the Inflation Reduction Act is welcomed by ethanol groups. The bill aims to establish a new tax credit incentives to biofuel production, infrastructure, carbon capture and storage (CCS).

One section of the bill aims to give a new tax credit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) of between $1.25 to $1.75 per gallon depending on the greenhouse gas (CHG) reduction of the fuel. We have a very active cash market while ethanol futures continue to hibernate.

On the Crude Oil Front the market sold off on factories squeezed by higher prices and weak customer demand. OPEC+ meets tomorrow to discuss whether to boost production. Factories across the US,  Europe  and Asia struggle for momentum in July as flagging demand and China’s strict COVID-19 restrictions slowed production. In the overnight electronic session the September crude oil is currently trading at 9415 which is 26 points higher. The trading range has been 9472 to 9259.

On the Natural Gas Front Russia is hurting Europe which has cut down its natural gas supply, however, Russia is even worse off. Russia is pivoting to customers in the east, but countries like China and India bargain hard. A German chemicals firm warns of a production chain collapse as Putin will continue to squeeze gas flows. The futures continue to take it on the chin after a huge rally. In the overnight electronic session the September natural gas is currently trading at 7.898 which is 0.385 lower. The trading range has been 8.233 to 7.862.

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374