About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 28
For the week ended Jul 21, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 412.0 0.0 7996.8 8103.9 5792.2 30.0
hrw 143.7 0.0 2320.7 2712.7 1593.9 0.0
srw 53.5 0.0 1552.6 1467.9 1154.2 30.0
hrs 70.0 0.0 2265.4 2372.8 1570.9 0.0
white 144.8 0.0 1715.7 1500.3 1348.8 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 142.4 50.1 124.4 0.0
corn 150.3 193.7 60600.5 69655.3 5209.0 7600.2
soybeans -58.6 748.8 59539.0 61908.7 6170.2 14855.1
soymeal 28.0 20.6 11410.7 11676.9 1706.9 770.4
soyoil 4.6 0.6 691.8 679.5 59.3 0.6
upland cotton -4.0 55.7 15700.7 16189.3 2915.6 4756.7
pima cotton 0.0 4.9 479.5 841.3 34.3 64.4
sorghum 3.4 67.0 6965.2 7180.3 280.7 67.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 25.0 12.8 0.0
rice 22.1 5.2 2933.4 3439.1 244.4 63.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Ukraine thinks it can export via the Black Sea even with Russian bombing. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port and maybe more ports in Ukraine. Both countries along with the UN had come to an agreement to allow for Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea but then Russia blew up the port the next day and threw the whole agreement into doubt. Those doubts increased earlier this week as new reports suggested more bombing was going on. It is thought to be unlikely that much will move from Ukraine right away as the infrastructure internally and at the ports needs to be rebuilt and now more damage has been added to Ukrainian ports. It is also unknown how much Wheat and Corn could be available for export even with no infrastructure problems as many areas have been bombed by the Russians. Trends are still turning down in all three markets Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 718, 684, and 641 September. Support is at 766, 754, and 744 September, with resistance at 825, 843, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 738 September. Support is at 853, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 889, 898, and 908 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 899, 869, and 853 September, and resistance is at 937, 956, and 999 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was narrowly mixed yesterday, with nearby months a penny lower and deferred months half a cent higher. Trends are turning up again on the daily charts. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1697, 1676, and 1652 September and resistance is at 1719, 1730, and 1754 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on follow through buying tied to the weather forecasts that featured a return to hot and dry weather and on the lower than expected crop condition ratings released Monday by USDA. The bombing of the Odessa port in Ukraine by Russian armed forces was also a reason to buy Corn as Corn is a big export item for Ukraine. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward and news that Ukraine thinks it will still be able to export through the Black Sea even with the Russian bombing. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts returned for the long term. Crop condition ratings were a little worse than expected by the trade in the Monday USDA reports and look to suffer more when the hot weather returns to the Midwest from the Great Plains. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 638 and 710 September. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 613, 624, and 634 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 490 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative buying as the weather forecasts became hot and dry again after some showers early this week and as USDA showed more deterioration in the crop condition ratings released on Monday than the trade had expected. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week before the hot and dry conditions return. More crop condition losses are possible in the coming weeks as the hot and dry weather arrives just in time for pod setting and filling. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying mostly new crop Soybeans from the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1619 and 1764 August. Support is at 1553, 1514, and 1490 August, and resistance is at 1607, 1617, and 1626 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 503.00 August. Support is at 469.00, 460.00, and 452.00 July, and resistance is at 475.00 480.00, and 486.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6000, 5760, and 5670 August, with resistance at 6400, 6470, and 6500 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher today on news that China had committed to buy another 1.0 million tons of Palm Oil from Indonesia. It was positive demand news for a market that needed some new demand. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Soybean Oil and Palm Oil. Crude Oil was also higher and the rally in petroleum supported rallies in vegetable oils. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent daysbut the rains are bring some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 724.00 and 702.00 November. Support is at 809.00, 781.00, and 767.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 861.00, and 877.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3470, and 3400 October, with resistance at 4080, 4120, and 4340 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
92 July
165 July
70 July
90 July

August
187 Sep
160 Sep
115 Seo
175 Aug

September
160 Sep
165 Sep
117 Sep
125 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 842.15 28.35 Nov. 2022 up 18.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 874.40 50.00 Nov. 2022 up 10.60
Basis: Vancouver 914.40 90.00 Nov. 2022 up 10.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1037.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1027.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 982.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1040.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1030.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 985.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 965.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 720.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4100.00 +150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 288.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.451)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,271 lots, or 8.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,935 6,006 5,911 5,972 5,891 5,954 63 101,523 90,781
Nov-22 5,665 5,761 5,649 5,736 5,633 5,712 79 24,376 37,144
Jan-23 5,595 5,676 5,586 5,670 5,557 5,633 76 14,993 26,941
Mar-23 5,554 5,635 5,554 5,602 5,546 5,597 51 270 489
May-23 5,576 5,650 5,568 5,627 5,528 5,611 83 96 561
Jul-23 5,557 5,600 5,556 5,600 5,498 5,577 79 13 47
Corn
Turnover: 547,769 lots, or 14.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,650 2,680 2,648 2,672 2,635 2,663 28 326,656 760,523
Nov-22 2,670 2,703 2,670 2,695 2,661 2,688 27 54,272 175,216
Jan-23 2,686 2,726 2,686 2,714 2,683 2,708 25 121,068 439,042
Mar-23 2,691 2,722 2,691 2,709 2,683 2,709 26 34,538 108,683
May-23 2,741 2,800 2,740 2,766 2,736 2,759 23 6,188 21,478
Jul-23 2,750 2,782 2,747 2,779 2,749 2,768 19 5,047 9,186
Soymeal
Turnover: 991,924 lots, or 38.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 4,056 4,159 4,056 4,100 4,056 4,116 60 717 2,454
Sep-22 3,945 4,006 3,931 3,962 3,913 3,970 57 597,101 896,784
Nov-22 3,888 3,942 3,878 3,902 3,857 3,914 57 35,648 214,389
Dec-22 3,753 3,809 3,753 3,762 3,728 3,780 52 8,560 85,402
Jan-23 3,634 3,688 3,628 3,660 3,602 3,662 60 306,977 689,497
Mar-23 3,504 3,561 3,493 3,538 3,466 3,529 63 11,769 57,136
May-23 3,392 3,450 3,384 3,421 3,363 3,416 53 24,377 83,248
Jul-23 3,370 3,421 3,358 3,402 3,338 3,397 59 6,775 10,728
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,166,863 lots, or 95.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,090 9,336 8,910 9,336 9,146 9,192 46 545 745
Sep-22 7,970 8,408 7,912 8,392 7,906 8,164 258 1,001,712 315,170
Oct-22 7,816 8,268 7,808 8,268 7,792 8,032 240 13,683 67,532
Nov-22 7,792 8,212 7,746 8,204 7,756 7,952 196 8,194 45,041
Dec-22 7,810 8,234 7,772 8,230 7,774 7,992 218 9,870 32,870
Jan-23 7,878 8,272 7,794 8,264 7,796 8,066 270 123,320 153,837
Feb-23 7,864 8,296 7,814 8,292 7,812 8,022 210 7,684 14,182
Mar-23 7,846 8,284 7,846 8,284 7,846 8,084 238 26 244
Apr-23 8,230 8,230 8,230 8,230 7,894 8,230 336 2 101
May-23 7,928 8,350 7,870 8,348 7,868 8,094 226 1,817 8,265
Jun-23 8,230 8,354 8,228 8,354 8,038 8,272 234 5 44
Jul-23 8,200 8,352 8,200 8,352 7,842 8,288 446 5 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 800,942 lots, or 76.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,722 10,230 9,722 10,066 9,722 9,732 10 468 1,083
Sep-22 9,450 9,882 9,410 9,880 9,396 9,646 250 639,710 262,450
Nov-22 9,352 9,770 9,304 9,770 9,282 9,580 298 10,039 67,749
Dec-22 9,240 9,650 9,176 9,644 9,144 9,448 304 6,368 47,188
Jan-23 9,220 9,636 9,156 9,636 9,124 9,392 268 126,656 162,261
Mar-23 8,896 9,302 8,834 9,236 8,800 9,156 356 7,428 31,275
May-23 8,794 9,258 8,726 9,258 8,670 9,022 352 7,615 18,211
Jul-23 8,684 9,168 8,640 9,152 8,586 8,914 328 2,658 4,127
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322