About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again on news that Russia had bombed the Odessa port and now maybe more ports in Ukraine. Both countries along with the UN had come to an agreement to allow for Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea but then Russia blew up the port the next day and threw the whole agreement into doubt. Those doubts increased yesterday as new reports suggested more bombing was going on. It is thought to be unlikely that much will move from Ukraine right away as the infrastructure internally and at the ports needs to be rebuilt and now more damage has been added to Ukrainian ports. It is also unknown how much Wheat and Corn could be available for export even with no infrastructure problems as many areas have been bombed by the Russians. Trends are still turning down in all three markets Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 718, 684, and 641 September. Support is at 7566, 754, and 744 September, with resistance at 825, 843, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 738 September. Support is at 853, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 884, 898, and 908 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 899, 869, and 853 September, and resistance is at 956, 999, and 1044 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday and trends are turning up again on the daily charts. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1697, 1676, and 1652 September and resistance is at 1730, 1754, and 1758 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 27
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.68 9.93 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.48 10.56 0.00
Brokens 9.95 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on the weather forecasts that featured a return to hot and dry weather and on the lower than expected crop condition ratings released Monday by USDA. The bombing of the Odessa port in Ukraine by Russian armed forces was also a reason to buy Corn as Corn is a big export item for Ukraine. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts returned for the long term. Crop condition ratings were a little worse than expected by the trade in the Monday USDA reports and look to suffer more when the hot weather returns to the Midwest from the Great Plains. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 602, 613, and 624 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 490 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday as the weather forecasts became hot and dry again after some showers early this week and as USDA showed more deterioration in the crop condition ratings released on Monday than the trade had expected. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week before the hot and dry conditions return. More crop condition losses are possible in the coming weeks as the hot and dry weather arrives just in time for pod setting and filling. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying mostly new crop Soybeans from the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1619 and 1764 August. Support is at 1474, 1445, and 1424 August, and resistance is at 1516, 1533, and 1573 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 471.00 and 503.00 August. Support is at 448.00, 443.00, and 437.00 July, and resistance is at 469.00 475.00, and 480.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5760, 5670, and 5400 August, with resistance at 6130, 6400, and 6470 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher today on news that China had committed to buy another 1.0 million tons of Palm Oil from Indonesia. It was positive demand news for a market that needed some new demand. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Soybean Oil and on the potential loss of renewed Sunoil exports from Ukraine. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 724.00 and 702.00 November. Support is at 781.00, 7867.00, and 757.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 861.00, and 877.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3470, and 3400 October, with resistance at 4080, 4120, and 4340 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 92 July 165 July 70 July 90 July
August 187 Sep 160 Sep 115 Seo 175 Aug
September 160 Sep 165 Sep 117 Sep 125 Aug

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 26
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 823.45 28.35 Nov. 2022 dn 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 863.80 50.00 Nov. 2022 up 13.70
Basis: Vancouver 903.80 90.00 Nov. 2022 up 23.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1027.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1017.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 952.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1030.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1020.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 940.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 710.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3950.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 285.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.457)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 108,407 lots, or 6.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 5,880 5,920 5,862 5,910 5,835 5,891 56 84,926 96,273
Nov-22 5,689 5,689 5,601 5,653 5,591 5,633 42 15,287 38,608
Jan-23 5,557 5,595 5,513 5,595 5,524 5,557 33 7,986 25,418
Mar-23 5,500 5,567 5,498 5,560 5,492 5,546 54 146 672
May-23 5,505 5,573 5,501 5,549 5,515 5,528 13 56 586
Jul-23 5,450 5,534 5,450 5,493 5,487 5,498 11 6 41
Corn
Turnover: 409,185 lots, or 10.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-22 2,630 2,647 2,621 2,647 2,620 2,635 15 259,080 809,859
Nov-22 2,653 2,671 2,648 2,669 2,650 2,661 11 30,821 171,301
Jan-23 2,677 2,690 2,669 2,690 2,670 2,683 13 91,072 425,710
Mar-23 2,688 2,692 2,672 2,686 2,674 2,683 9 20,187 104,183
May-23 2,732 2,742 2,726 2,735 2,721 2,736 15 4,051 20,187
Jul-23 2,745 2,756 2,740 2,743 2,733 2,749 16 3,974 9,339
Soymeal
Turnover: 991,833 lots, or 37.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 4,065 4,096 4,014 4,069 4,014 4,056 42 1,012 3,065
Sep-22 3,910 3,945 3,885 3,920 3,862 3,913 51 584,243 882,351
Nov-22 3,853 3,891 3,830 3,863 3,812 3,857 45 41,533 212,607
Dec-22 3,723 3,764 3,703 3,739 3,660 3,728 68 6,536 86,655
Jan-23 3,588 3,637 3,568 3,612 3,556 3,602 46 310,633 682,060
Mar-23 3,446 3,505 3,431 3,481 3,410 3,466 56 13,382 58,362
May-23 3,350 3,391 3,335 3,377 3,323 3,363 40 27,530 82,355
Jul-23 3,335 3,363 3,315 3,356 3,302 3,338 36 6,964 10,161
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,070,932 lots, or 84.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,400 9,432 8,878 8,976 9,298 9,146 -152 343 715
Sep-22 8,086 8,138 7,748 7,874 8,034 7,906 -128 915,849 324,407
Oct-22 7,970 8,002 7,654 7,768 7,902 7,792 -110 12,809 67,215
Nov-22 7,934 7,936 7,602 7,720 7,800 7,756 -44 7,746 43,865
Dec-22 7,914 7,954 7,620 7,738 7,842 7,774 -68 8,155 32,764
Jan-23 7,950 7,990 7,656 7,770 7,840 7,796 -44 117,810 148,149
Feb-23 7,996 8,000 7,682 7,786 7,880 7,812 -68 6,116 13,857
Mar-23 – – – 7,846 7,912 7,846 -66 0 249
Apr-23 – – – 7,894 7,894 7,894 0 0 100
May-23 8,036 8,036 7,758 7,814 7,910 7,868 -42 2,101 8,151
Jun-23 8,154 8,154 7,958 7,958 7,992 8,038 46 3 44
Jul-23 – – – 7,842 7,842 7,842 0 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 696,497 lots, or 65.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-22 9,670 9,778 9,660 9,778 9,636 9,722 86 70 1,545
Sep-22 9,502 9,548 9,286 9,376 9,366 9,396 30 567,071 242,331
Nov-22 9,330 9,412 9,202 9,282 9,218 9,282 64 8,213 67,268
Dec-22 9,254 9,274 9,074 9,142 9,106 9,144 38 8,541 46,901
Jan-23 9,200 9,250 9,040 9,126 9,066 9,124 58 103,500 163,720
Mar-23 8,886 8,906 8,724 8,804 8,736 8,800 64 4,489 31,349
May-23 8,700 8,740 8,606 8,704 8,606 8,670 64 2,782 17,316
Jul-23 8,662 8,662 8,528 8,620 8,522 8,586 64 1,831 4,025
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322