About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday with the weather the driving actor behind the action. Trends are now mixed on the daily charts but are down on the weekly charts. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area. There have been showers in the region lately to improve conditions and that kept the market pinned lower. The price action yesterday was a disappointment for the bullish traders. There continues to be talk of a big recession here in the US and around the world. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 107.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,660 bales, from 17,716 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 6 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 179 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 88.10, and 87.60 December, with resistance of 99.50, 100.80 and 103.20 December.

Crop Progress
Date 10-Jul 3-Jul 2021 Avg
Cotton Squaring 57 44 53 58
Cotton Setting Bolls 22 13 15 18
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 13 14 34 34 5
Cotton Last Week 16 15 33 33 3
Cotton Last Year 1 8 35 44 12

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed yesterday with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts. The recent market weakness has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 161.00, 158.00, and 155.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 175.00, and 179.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday with the biggest losses seen in New York. Trends are now down on the daily charts in New York and are mixed in London. Trends are down in London on the weekly charts. Futures remain rather cheap when compared to the cash market and certified stocks keep dropping. That news has not been enough to keep futures from sliding at this time. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good c=for Coffee production. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.782 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 73 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 208.00 September. Support is at 212.00, 210.00, and 208.00 September, and resistance is at 218.00, 220.00 and 224.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1890 September, and resistance is at 1990, 2000, and 2020 September,

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower yesterday as traders sold the rally from last week. It was a relatively narrow trade and the market might be able to move higher later in the week. The weekly charts suggest that a strong rally is still possible. White Sugar supplies and production are short right now. India is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1940, 2020, and 2200 October. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1910, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 549.00, 560.99, and 578.00 October. Support is at 534.00, 526.00, and 519.00 October and resistance is at 549.00, 553.00, and 558.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday and trends are sideways in New York and in London. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Some rains were reported last week. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.549 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2260 September, with resistance at 2400, 2430, and 2470 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1690 September, with resistance at 1780, 1790, and 1810 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322