About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. 2022 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2021
Corn Production 14,520 14,460-14,640 14,460 15,115
Soybean Production 4,515 4,498-4,640 4,640 4,435
Corn Yield 177.0 177.0-177.5 177.0 177.0
Soybean Yield 51.5 51.5-51.5 51.5 51.4
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,491 1,435-1,535 1,485
Soybeans 215 190-250 205
Wheat 658 655-671 655
2022-23
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,433 1,234-1,565 1,400
Soybeans 214 141-280 280
Wheat 644 578-690 627
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 311.4 310.9-315.0 310.9
Soybeans 86.4 85.7-87.0 86.2
Wheat 279.5 279.0-280.0 279.4
2022-23
Average Range USDA June
Corn 310.7 308.5-312.3 310.5
Soybeans 99.2 96.5-101.0 100.5
Wheat 267.8 265.0-272.5 266.9
****
2022-23 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2021-22
All Wheat 1,744 1,567-1,805 1,737 1,646
Winter Wheat 1,188 1,100-1,215 1,182 1,277
Hard Red Winter 586 568-601 582 749
Soft Red Winter 364 350-381 358 361
White Winter 242 232-252 242 167
Other Spring 449 336-525 N/A 331
Durum 60 37-85 N/A 37
****
2021-22
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 116.5 114.0-119.3 116.0
Soybeans 125.9 125.0-127.0 126.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 52.5 51.0-53.0 53.0
Soybeans 43.3 43.0-44.0 43.4

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 13, 2022 224 Jul 11, 2022
ROUGH RICE July Jul 13, 2022 5 Jul 11, 2022
WHEAT July Jul 13, 2022 57 Jul 11, 2022

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 11
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jul 11, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 07, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/07/2022 06/30/2022 07/08/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 798 0 0 847 1,919
CORN 933,725 876,386 1,002,342 49,227,453 59,294,132
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 48 0 48
OATS 0 1,497 0 2,794 100
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 183,192 77,877 74,060 6,950,200 6,556,961
SOYBEANS 356,716 437,318 201,129 52,174,090 57,785,671
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,260 240
WHEAT 309,802 272,940 429,316 1,922,570 2,337,780
Total 1,784,233 1,666,018 1,706,895 110,280,214 125,976,851
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 10-Jul 3-Jul 2021 Avg
Cotton Squaring 57 44 53 58
Cotton Setting Bolls 22 13 15 18
Corn Silking 15 7 24 25
Corn Dough 2 3 3
Soybeans Blooming 32 16 44 38
Soybeans Setting Pods 6 3 9 9
Sorghum Headed 24 21 28 26
Sorghum Coloring 15 14 15 16
Rice Headed 21 15 20 22
Peanuts Pegging 63 45 64 61
Sunflowers Planted 97 93 98 97
Oats Headed 78 67 93 90
Winter Wheat Harvested 63 54 57 61
Spring Wheat Headed 44 20 81 77
Barley Headed 63 43 75 73

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 13 14 34 34 5
Cotton Last Week 16 15 33 33 3
Cotton Last Year 1 8 35 44 12

Corn This Week 3 7 26 52 12
Corn Last Week 2 7 27 53 11
Corn Last Year 2 6 27 51 14

Soybeans This Week 2 7 29 52 10
Soybeans Last Week 2 7 28 54 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 38 49 10

Spring Wheat This Week 1 4 25 63 7
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 6 26 59 7
Spring Wheat Last Year 21 34 29 15 1

Sorghum This Week 9 12 39 36 4
Sorghum Last Week 9 12 37 39 3
Sorghum Last Year 1 4 25 57 13

Rice This Week 0 3 20 56 19
Rice Last Week 0 2 22 58 18
Rice Last Year 1 4 24 55 16

Peanuts This Week 1 4 32 56 7
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 37 52 5
Peanuts Last Year 0 2 25 63 10

Oats This Week 12 11 19 51 7
Oats Last Week 12 10 17 54 7
Oats Last Year 11 21 35 30 5

Barley This Week 2 14 26 52 6
Barley Last Week 4 12 25 51 8
Barley Last Year 16 27 33 20 4

Pastures and Ranges This Week 21 25 26 25 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 21 24 24 28 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 19 20 27 26 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday after moving sharply higher in the overnight markets. What posted a dramatic reversal and closed lower and near the lows of the day as the US Dollar rallied and traders realized that the hot and dry weather forecast would not mean that much to Wheat that is already in the middle of the harvest. The price action was poor and some further selling is possible today. Demand remains poor for US Wheat. The Winter Wheat harvest is expanding through the Great Plains and Midwest. However, the daily chart trends are sideways to up after the initial rally so buying might b found again at lowr levels. Futures should form a harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been weakening in Kansas despite recent rains that have helped kernel size and test weight. Hot and dry weather is back for this week to southern areas while northern areas have more moderate temperatures and some rains. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 960 September. Support is at 838, 795, and 778 September, with resistance at 940, 947, and 982 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 1042 September. Support is at 887, 833, and 821 September, with resistance at 978, 988, and 998 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1017 and 1093 September. Support is at 942, 912, and 871 September, and resistance is at 999, 1044, and 1049 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday with little in the way of news for the market. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year. The speculators have been the best sellers lately even with perceived bullish fundamental news as many are worried about a world wide recession.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1622, 1605, and 1591 September and resistance is at 1663, 1692, and 1696 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the weather market came back to life. Traders heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains over the weekend, but the heat was moderated in forecasts released yesterday. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and the Corn in these areas should be able to withstand some heat and dry weather, but the hot and dry forecasts are coming just when pollination is expected so yields could be cut anyway. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has been hot in the Midwest and many areas have been dry. The forecast for more dire weather is concerning in these areas most of all. Illinois and Iowa are in the best shape to withstand the hot and dry weather should it develop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 616, 601, and 582 September, and resistance is at 645, 654, and 657 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 472, 456, and 436 September, and resistance is at 501, 509, and 522 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were sharply higher in overnight trading but gave back much of the gains and closed near the lows of the day. Traders heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains over the weekend, but the heat was moderated in forecasts released yesterday. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and the Soybeans in these areas should be able to withstand some heat and dry weather, but the hot and dry forecasts are coming just when pod set is expected to start so yields could be cut anyway.. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. The US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. Ideas are that purchased could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1517, 1495, and 1461 August, and resistance is at 1553, 1573, and 1607 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 431.00, 425.00, and 420.00 July, and resistance is at 442.00 454.00, and 457.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5760, and 5680 August, with resistance at 6500, 6570, and 6700 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker world financial markets. The monthly MPOB data was negative for prices. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with other vegetable oils markets. Ideas of poor demand have hit this market as well as the others. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 824.00, 791.00, and 780.00 November, with resistance at 879.00, 885.00, and 913.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3710 September. Support is at 3810, 3760, and 3740 September, with resistance at 4400, 4460, and 4490 September.

DJ Malaysia’s Palm-Oil Exports Fell 13% to 1.19M Tons in June, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports were down 13% on month at 1.19 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:
June May Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,545,129 1,461,032 Up 5.76%
Palm Oil Exports 1,193,861 1,376,416 Dn 13.26%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 92,130 81,356 Up 13.24%
Palm Oil Imports 59,195 57,763 Up 2.48%
Closing Stocks 1,655,073 1,521,826 Up 8.76%
Crude Palm Oil 881,299 829,915 Up 6.19%
Processed Palm Oil 773,774 691,911 Up 11.83%

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 15%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 15% on month to 308,290 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-10 June 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 94,530 148,054
RBD Palm Oil 32,105 62,025
RBD Palm Stearin 25,800 22,695
Crude Palm Oil 70,830 30,100
Total* 308,290 363,732
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or isolated showers today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
115 July
175 July
50 July
120 July

July
115 July
175 July
50 July
120 July

August
170 Sep
170 Sep
55 Sep
115 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 905.10 50.00 Nov. 2022 up 6.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 921.70 55.00 Nov. 2022 up 11.60
Basis: Vancouver 951.70 85.00 Nov. 2022 up 11.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1097.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1072.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1037.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1100.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1075.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1040.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 815.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4300.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 283.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322